Saturday, November 12, 2016

NFL Picks, Week 10

Home teams in CAPS.

Houston (+2) over JACKSONVILLE
I know Houston's offense is in shambles, and that Houston fans are having a severe case of buyers remorse on their Brock Osweiler toy, but the Texans have taken care of the mediocre teams they've played. Remember, their three losses have been to the Patriots, Vikings, and Broncos, all of them on the road. This game is also not being played in Houston, and the Jaguars are an NFL team, but they are similar to those other three teams in zero other ways. 

To put it more simply: Jacksonville shouldn't be favored over anyone right now outside of Cleveland and San Francisco.

Kansas City (+3) over CAROLINA
Carolina has beaten the Cardinals (fresh off of a 75-minute slugfest the previous Sunday night) and the Rams (starting Case Keenum...on purpose, but still), and now they're making their run back to playoff contention? Maybe. But I'd like to see them do it against a better opponent on more solid footing, so this game is a "show me" game for the Panthers. Yes, they came back from 1-8-1 two years ago to win 6 straight plus a playoff game, but show me you're back against the Chiefs before I assume you're ready to do it again.

NEW ORLEANS (-3) over Denver
Denver's defense has a problem defending the run. They've given up 140 yards at 5.6 ypc, 123 yards at 4.7 ypc, and 218 yards at 5.1 ypc on the ground in the past 3 weeks. The Saints, despite still very much being Drew Brees' team, has done very well for themselves on the ground in the past couple of weeks. With this game being played in the Superdome, I'm giving the edge to the Saints.

Los Angeles (+2) over NEW YORK JETS
Bryce Petty making his first NFL start (only because both Ryan Fitzpatrick and Geno Smith are hurt) against that Rams front seven. Yikes.

Atlanta (-2) over PHILADELPHIA
While I do respect the hell out of Philly's defense, their offense is stuck in a "We're starting a guy who was playing FCS football last fall" rut. Now that teams have film on Carson Wentz, the sledding has gotten much harder. Add in a half-decent Falcons defense and a very strong Falcons offense, and I'll take the visitors.

WASHINGTON (-2.5) over Minnesota
Minnesota's offense is a jumbled mess right now, and their terrific defense is starting to crumble under the weight of carrying the offense. They've seen big holes poked in them by Chicago and Detroit, and the Redskins offense is better than both of those teams.

Green Bay (-2.5) over TENNESSEE
I bought some Tennessee stock last week, and saw it lose quite a bit of value out in San Diego. I thought the Titans could take the next step from mediocre team to above-average, but they're not ready for that yet (and probably don't have the right coach for taking that next step). Green Bay has their own slate of problems, but they've been mostly taking care of the limited mediocre teams they've drawn. That continues this week.

TAMPA BAY (+1) over Chicago
I don't get Chicago being favored in this game. Winston will play, so the Bucs should be able to go toe-to-toe with the Bears offense even if Jay Cutler doesn't go full Cutler.

SAN DIEGO (-4) over Miami
The Chargers are good enough that it's a tough cross country trip for a mid-tier team to go out to California and get a result. Add in the giant advantage at the quarterback position the Chargers possess and it's hard for me to make the case for Miami.

ARIZONA (-13.5) over San Francisco
The 49ers are a barren roster, Arizona almost covered this spread earlier this season at San Francisco, on a Thursday night with Drew Stanton at quarterback. The Cardinals (while still not the team we expected coming into this season) have improved since then. The 49ers have not

Dallas (+2.5) over PITTSBURGH
I honestly don't know what to expect from Pittsburgh anymore. I feel like this should be a shootout as neither defense seems particularly trustworthy, so I decided to take the points.

Seattle (+7.5) over NEW ENGLAND
I'm going to this game, so Seattle is virtually assured of losing the game. I've seen the Seahawks play live 5 times and haven't seen a win yet. But this Seahawks team hasn't lost a game by more than 10 points in over 5 years (all the way back to mid-2011, when they were starting Tarvaris Jackson at quarterback by design), so the line feels a bit high. And while the shine has come off of Seattle's defense a bit in the last month, New England's defense isn't nearly as good as most believe it to be. Essentially, they're back to bend but don't break. They have done a great job of not breaking since Tom Brady got back, but they've also played Cleveland, Cincinnati, Pittsburgh with Landry Jones, and Buffalo in that time. Seattle's a bigger challenge.

Cincinnati (PICK EM) over NEW YORK GIANTS
Despite last week's tie, I still trust the Bengals more of these two teams. 

This week: 0-1 (D'oh!)
Last week: 6-6-1 (.500)
Season: 59-66-7 (.473)

No comments:

Post a Comment