Thursday, November 10, 2016

NFL Picks, Week 10 - Thursday Night Edition


The majority of the country (in terms of map coverage, not necessarily number of households) will see 
Denver at New Orleans (CBS, 1 PM)
Atlanta at Philadelphia  (FOX, 1:00 PM) 
Dallas at Pittsburgh (FOX, 4:25PM)

The entire country will see 
Cleveland at Baltimore (NFLN, 8:30 *Thursday*)
Seattle at New England (NBC, 8:30)
Cincinnati at New York Giants (ESPN, 8:30 *Monday*)

Cleveland (+7.5) over BALTIMORE
This is a tough one. I respect both coaches, Harbaugh may be the second best coach in the AFC behind Belichick, and Jackson a) made Andy Dalton look like he could quarterback a team to the Super Bowl before he got hurt, and b) has the Browns looking pretty respectable for an 0-9 team. 

Everything else in my short week equation points very strongly to the Ravens. So I should probably pick the Ravens. Except their offense has looked pretty decrepit all season long. Last week they completely shut down the Steelers until garbage time, and since they had a 21-0 lead at that point, you assume it was total domination. It wasn't. Baltimore got a 95-yard touchdown pass to Mike Wallace, returned a blocked punt for a touchdown, and added 2 field goals. In fact, the Steelers out-gained Baltimore that day, and both teams were under 300 total yards of offense. This is what happens when you let your wide receiver corps wither and die. 

This game feels like a safe Ravens win, with one of the teams pulling a late cover. I'm going to go against my pick table and say Cleveland gets the backdoor cover tonight. 

Let's go to the Thursday Night pick table:
Cleveland Browns
Baltimore Ravens

Vegas Line

Team Strength

Home Field
In Baltimore

Coaching Matchup
Cleveland (+7.5) 

2016 Midweek Picks: 5-4

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