Wednesday, November 23, 2016

NFL Picks, Week 12 - Thanksgiving Edition


The majority of the country (in terms of map coverage, not necessarily number of households) will see 
Cincinnati at Baltimore (CBS, 1 PM)
New York Giants at Cleveland  (FOX, 1:00 PM) 
Carolina at Oakland (CBS, 4:25PM)

The entire country will see 
Minnesota at Detroit (CBS, 12:30 *Thursday*)
Washington at Dallas (FOX, 4:30 *Thursday*)
Pittsburgh at Indianapolis (NBC, 8:30 *Thursday)
Kansas City at Denver (NBC, 8:30)
Green Bay at Philadelphia (ESPN, 8:30 *Monday*)

Happy Thanksgiving! Be thankful for 2 really good games today, and that the bad game will come during prime turkey coma time (Thanks a lot, Andrew Luck). Especially when you look at what most of the country will be saddled with come Sunday. Yuck. As always, home teams in CAPS. 

DETROIT (-2.5) over Minnesota
Minnesota put up 30 points on Arizona, they're offensive woes must be somewhat solved, right? Well, they got a 100-yard interception return for a touchdown, and a 104-yard kickoff return for a touchdown, so really their offense put up 16 points. Not bad, but not enough to say the offense is anything other than a lead weight tied around the defense's waist. Detroit is having a much better season than Arizona, in that they haven't spent all season shooting themselves in the foot or relying on a quarterback with a giant fork sticking out of his back. 

Washington (+7) over DALLAS
This isn't a repudiation of the Cowboys, they are legit. Their defense isn't that good, but the offense is very good. And this year, where there's maybe one balanced good team, their elite offense might be enough. But Washington looks pretty legit too, and I'm not buying Dallas giving 7 points in this matchup. 

Pittsburgh (-8.5) over INDIANAPOLIS
This looked like the end to a great slate of Thanksgiving games, and then Andrew Luck ended up in the concussion protocol, and we realized that Scott Tolzien is Andrew Luck's backup. I don't want to overrate Pittsburgh's defense (it's not good), but Scott Tolzien isn't keeping up with Ben Roethlisberger and the Steelers offense, especially since they get to play against the Colts defense (also not good). 

2016 Midweek Picks: 6-5

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