Friday, November 14, 2014

NFL Picks, Week 11

MIAMI (-4.5) over Buffalo

My main worry in this game was that neither team would score enough to make covering a 4.5-point spread. Through one half, this looked to be the case: 5 legitimate drives (the 6th was a one-play kneeldown to end the half), 326 yards gained, and a grand total of 9 points scored (3 field goals).

Thanks to the slight stirrings of Miami's offense (and some questionable officiating tilted towards the home team), the second half saw 22 points scored, the final 19 of them by Miami.

CLEVELAND (-3) over Houston
I think Cleveland has shown enough to beat Ryan Mallett in his first start...especially since Arian Foster is likely out. 

Minnesota (+3) over CHICAGO 
I try not to overreact to recent events...but I watched most of last week's Packers Bears mismatchup. The "defense" played by the Bears was nonexistant. 

GREEN BAY (-6) over Philadelphia
The list of quarterbacks I trust more than Aaron Rodgers is not long. Mark Sanchez isn't on it. 

KANSAS CITY (-2) over Seattle
I wish I believed Seattle would kickstart their unbelieveably-difficult closing stretch with a win in hostile Arrowhead Stadium. Had their nose tackle not gone down for the season, I probably would have picked them. 

Atlanta (-1) over CAROLINA
Carolinas offensive line may be more beat up than Atlanta's. I trust Matt Ryan to move the ball against what has been a truly poor Panthers defense this season. 

NEW ORLEANS (-7) over Cincinnati
I just don't see Andy Dalton 2.0 (no he's not new and improved, that was his passers-by rating last week) faring well on the road in the Superdome. 

Tampa Bay (+7) over WASHINGTON 
Yes, Tampa Bay is awful. But the Redskins aren't good either, and shouldn't be favored by 7 over pretty much anyone. 

Denver (-9.5) ST. LOUIS
Peyton Manning will carve up the St. Louis defense. 

San Francisco (-4) over NEW YORK GIANTS
Seattle showed you don't even have to throw the ball to beat the Giants comfortably. Frank Gore will take a baseball bat to his offensive coordinator if he doesn't get 20+ carries in this one. 

SAN DIEGO (-10) over Oakland
Philip Rivers bounces back. 

Detroit (+1.5) over ARIZONA
At some point starting Drew Stanton has to be an impediment to winning. A game against a top-5 defense seems as good a time as any to start. 

New England (+3) over INDIANAPOLIS
I just don't see the Colts defense doing much to stop Tom Brady. I do see the Pats defense making Andrew Lucks job difficult at times. 

Pittsburgh (-6) over Tennessee
I'm writing off the Jets game as a one-off. 

This Week: 1-0 (Whoo-hoo!)
Last Week: 11-2 (.846)
2014 Season: 82-64-1 (.561)

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