NFL Picks, Week 17

ATLANTA (-3.5) over Tampa Bay
Even with Atlanta resting players for long stretches of this game. Yes, I'm officially down on the Buccaneers. That 41-0 stinkbomb two weeks ago against the Saints follwed by a lackluster 15 point loss to the Rams at home? I'm not trusting the Bucs again this season.

BUFFALO (-3.5) over New York Jets
Buffalo is ending a horribly disappointing season, and the Jets are back to starting Mark Sanchez because they hate Tim Tebow Greg McElroy suffered a concussion last week. Add in that Buffalo is at home...nah, that doesn't matter. Buffalo isn't starting Sanchez so I'm picking Buffalo.

CINCINNATI (-2.5) over Baltimore
I'm picking the team that's playing better right now, and it isn't the team with the better record coming into this game.

Chicago (-3) over DETROIT
Detroit is playing absolutely terrible football. Add in Chicago needs this game to have any hope at the playoffs, and I can't see the Lions spoiling things for the Bears.

TENNESSEE (-4) over Jacksonville
In games where neither team has anything to play for, I need a good reason to pick against the home team. Jacksonville doesn't possess anything approaching a good reason.

Houston (-7) over INDIANAPOLIS
I'm cringing as I go against Chuckstrong, but Indy really doesn't have the horses to beat the Texans. If the Texans lose this game, they're one and done. Too much bad juju and bad play for them to bounce back in a week. But a win and a bye to reset themselves? That could be exactly what they need.

NEW ORLEANS (-5) over Carolina
Each team is playing well these last 2-3 weeks. New Orleans has done it against better competition, plus they're at home, so the Saints are the pick.

NEW YORK GIANTS (-7.5) over Philadelphia
The Giants have looked really bad lately, but the Eagles are really bad. It won't be enough to get into the playoffs, but it will avoid one of the worst endings to a season for a defending champion.

PITTSBURGH (-6) over Cleveland
Cleveland is starting Thad Lewis at quarterback. Trent Richardson will not play either. And the game is in Pittsburgh in a game that means nothing. Of course, you all stopped reading after the first sentence.

SAN DIEGO (-7) over Oakland
It isn't because I suddenly believe in San Diego. Oakland's just that bad.

Arizona (+16.5) over SAN FRANCISCO 
Trying to balance an angry San Francisco team looking to take out last week's embarassment on a hopelessly overmatched Arizona offense with the likelihood that San Francisco doesn't need to score 17 points to win comfortably. Arizona's defense is still very good. San Francisco won't take many chances, because they won't have to to win.

SEATTLE (-11) over St. Louis
I'm buying in. They won't put up a fiftyburger on the Rams, but they will win comfortably.

Green Bay (-3) over MINNESOTA
Aaron Rodgers' offense is faster than Adrian Peterson's offense. Minnesota's D isn't keeping a lid on the Packers, and All Day simply won't be able to keep up while dragging the other 10 offensive players behind him.

Miami (+10) over NEW ENGLAND 
Miami almost always plays the Patriots tough. I don't see that trend changing here.

DENVER (-16) over Kansas City
Peyton Manning will put up more than the 17 points he put up last time. Getting a few short fields from his defense will help in that regard.

WASHINGTON (-3) over Dallas
I trust Robert Griffin III and the Redskins to deliver more than I do the Cowboys around Tony Romo.


Midweek Season record: 7-8-2 (.471)
Last week: 11-4-1 (.719)
Season: 106-125-9 (.460)

NFL Power Poll, Week 16

Rank (Last)	Team	Record	Notes
1 (2)		11-4	Honestly, this was the hardest spot to fill in this week's poll. Which team to lift up above the rest? In the end, the Patriots get the nod for a few reasons: 1) They've been a top team for so long, you trust that they won't beat themselves. 2) Last year they were in the Super Bowl, and they're better balanced this year. 3) They're only loss in the season's second half was to San Francisco ina  game where they came all the way back from down 31-3 before losing.
2 (6)		11-4	Maybe it's the injuries. Maybe it's a lesser offensive line. Maybe it's a hangover from last year's disappointment, but something just seems off about this year's Packers. But they still have Aaron Rodgers, and they seem to be rounding into form just in time for the playoffs.
3 (5)		12-3	Yes, Denver is on a 10-game winning streak. It sounds a little less impressive when you look deeper and see their only wins against better than .500 teams are Cincinnati and Baltimore in the midst of their late season swoon. That being said, it's still 10 wins in a row, something no one else can say despite some other good teams playing soft schedules.
4 (7)		10-5	The proverbial team that no one wants to face right now, having scored 150 points in their last 3 games, won 4 in a row, and obliterated the 49ers last weekend. However, their postseason road will likely all come on the road, where they are more mortal. Why not have them as the best team right now? They're awfully young, which sets them up very well for the forseeable future, but could be a detriment this season.
5 (1)		10-4-1	Depsite the debacle in Seattle, I'm not too worried about the 49ers. The main reason I have them ranked below Seattle right now is the injury questions surrounding Justin Smith. If he's back and healthy, then I'd slide San Francisco just above Seattle. If he's out or limited, then I'd stick Seattle slightly higher.
6 (3)		13-2	Fact 1: Atlanta has home field advantage in the playoffs up to the Super Bowl. Fact 2: Almost no one trusts Atlanta to make the Super Bowl despite fact 1.
7 (4)		12-3	Houston looks about as broken as a 12-3 team looking to wrap up the #1 seed can look. People aren't as down on this team as they are on Atlanta, but should they lose this week and fall out of a bye, I'm not sure anyone will pick them to bounce back once the playoffs start.
8 (8)		9-6	When coach of the year is discussed, I rarely hear Mike Shanahan's name discussed. That's a shame, because he's very deserving of it. He has put together an offense headed by a rookie quarterback and a rookie 6th round pick running back, and that offense is on the verge of securing a playoff bid in the very tough NFC.
9 (11)		9-6	If Minnesota makes the playoffs, Adrian Peterson deserves the MVP. Yes, over Manning and Brady. Because there is nothing else on that offense that is helping him in any way, yet he still might carry them into the playoffs. Oh, and he's right about one year removed from an ACL tear. No, not a year removed at the start of the 2012 season, a year removed now.
10 (12)		10-5	Kudos to Baltimore for being the less disapointing team in last week's Ravens-Giants tilt. And for all the grief I (deservedly) give Joe Flacco, he came out and played well in a game that his team desperately needed going into the playoffs.
11 (10)		10-5	Does Andrew Luck deserve rookie of the year over two guys putting up better stats because he has led the team with the #1 overall pick in the 2012 draft to the 2012 playoffs? I say no. If the award was rookie MVP, I'd be more amenable to that argument. But rookie of the year is an individual award, so give it to RG3 or Russell Wilson, who have been more impressive individuals.
12 (15)		9-6	Cincinnati has reached the playoffs 3 times under Marvin Lewis: 2005, 2009, and 2011. In 2009 and 2011, they reached the playoffs behind a stout defense and an offense that protected its quarterback by running well. This version plays stout defense and protects its quarterback with perhaps the best receiver in the league (AJ Green) and a competent running game. I'm not seeing why this year will be any different (lose the first playoff game) from a results perspective.
13 (16)		9-6	Chicago may very well get to 10 wins and the playoffs with a win over the suddenly terrible Detroit Lions this weekend. But we have a pretty clear picture of who they are at this point: they'll beat bad teams and lose to good ones. Unfortunately, this isn't a down year for the NFC. There aren't any bad teams going to the playoffs...
14 (13)		8-7	…well, unless Dallas gets in (ZING!) Just kidding, but only sort of. Dallas is playing some of their better football now, as opposed to earlier in the year, but they follow a pretty simple formula: Fall behind early, roar back, and the game comes down to a couple plays at the end. Sometimes Dallas makes them, sometimes they choke on them.
15 (9)		8-7	This team has fallen completely on its face in the last month. And yet, if they somehow sneak in (they need a LOT of help), no one will want any part of them.
16 (17)		7-8	8-8 seems like a fitting end to this trying Saints season. Brees and the offense have been great, but not extraordinary, and the defense took too long to adjust from blitzhapy Gregg Williams to pressure with the front four Steve Spagnulo. Don't sleep on them next season though, if they hang onto Spags and get Sean Payton back.
17 (18)		7-7-1	The job Jeff Fisher has done with the roster he inherited has been amazing. If he can cap it off with a win this weekend in Seattle to end the year 5-0-1 in the NFC West, just hand him the coach of the year award.
18 (14)		7-8	They had a mini-resurgence mid-season, but in the end, age caught up to this team. You knew it would happen, and it's been predicted for the last 2-3 seasons. But Pittsburgh has reloaded well in thr past, and there's no reason to think they won't do so again.
19 (20)		7-8	They've done a good job competing all year and done well developing Ryan Tannehill. There's not much more you can ask for from this coaching staff.
20 (22)		6-9	For the second year in a row, Carolina became dangerous once the season had gotten away from them. Next year it's time for Carolina to start the year as a dangerous team, or Ron Rivera and Cam Newton should start to hear the clamoring for their replacements.
21 (21)		5-10	For awhile there it looked like Cleveland's coach and GM might have a chance to save their jobs despite a new owner and team president. If the Browns lose 3 straight to end the year though it's hard to see the ax not swinging down come Monday.
22 (19)		6-9	The 2011 Buccanneers lost the last 10 games of their season, culminating in a blowout loss to the already-clinched-a-playoff-spot Falcons. The 2012 Buccaneers may lose the last 6 games of their season, culminating in a loss to the already-clinched-home-field Falcons. Perhaps the upgrade from Raheem Morris to Greg Schiano was slightly overstated?
23 (24)		6-9	One more game in the AJ Smith/Norv Turner era, San Diegans. Just one more game.
24 (25)		6-9	Someone will have to pay for the sins of the 2012 New York Jets. Rex Ryan? Mark Sanchez? GM Mike Tannenbaum? My vote would be for Tannenbaum first and Sanchez second. The Jets problems are mostly about their roster, and that falls on the GM. And Sanchez is broken right now. If he is to get fixed, it won't be in New York.
25 (23)		5-10	The biggest question hanging over this team is, do they know what they have in Jake Locker. And I think the distressing answer is…No. Not that he's not the answer at quarterback, but that the answer is still unknown.
26 (26)		4-11	Congratulations on lasting 14 years in the Philadelphia pressure cooker, Andy. Enjoy not being in that pressure cooker anymore starting Monday.
27 (27)		5-10	Arizona has many pieces that comprise a good team, especially on defense. But they have mishandled the situation at the most important position on the roster so completely that I don't see how the coach can survive this disappointment of a season.
28 (28)		4-11	Does coach Jim Schwartz deserve to lose his job one year after taking the Lions to the playoffs for the first time since 1997? Maybe not, but this season has been such an unmitigated disaster that you can't rule it out.
29 (29)		5-10	Buffalo had expectations this season after an offseason spending spree that ended in colossal disappointment. A housecleaning is in order.
30 (30)		4-11	The current regime inherited such a mess that 4 or 5 wins isn't much of a disappointment.
31 (31)		2-13	Terrible team, terrible quarterback situation. Terrible year to need a quarterback and have a top-2 pick.
32 (32)		2-13	Decent team, terrible quarterback situation. Terrible year to need a quarterback and have a top-2 pick.

Biggest risers:

Green Bay (4 spots)
Seattle, Cincinnati, Chicago (3 spots)

Biggest fallers:
New York Giants (6 spots)
San Francisco, Pittsburgh (4 spots)

NFL Draft Picture, Week 16

Here is the NFL Draft order through week 16:

2013 NFL Draft Order
Rank	Team	W	L	T	Pct	Conference	Division	SOV	SOS
1	Kansas City Chiefs	2	13	0	0.133	0-11	0-5	0.433	0.489
2	Jacksonville Jaguars	2	13	0	0.133	2-9	2-3	0.500	0.551
3	Oakland Raiders	4	11	0	0.267	4-7	2-3	0.217	0.471
4	Philadelphia Eagles	4	11	0	0.267	2-9	1-4	0.483	0.507
5	Detroit Lions	4	11	0	0.267	3-8	0-5	0.392	0.569
6	Buffalo Bills	5	10	0	0.333	4-7	1-4	0.280	0.493
7	Cleveland Browns	5	10	0	0.333	5-6	2-3	0.373	0.502
8	Tennessee Titans	5	10	0	0.333	4-7	0-5	0.387	0.538
9	Arizona Cardinals	5	10	0	0.333	3-8	1-4	0.480	0.553
10	San Diego Chargers	6	9	0	0.400	6-5	3-2	0.289	0.471
11	Tampa Bay Buccaneers	6	9	0	0.400	3-8	2-3	0.367	0.482
12	New York Jets	6	9	0	0.400	4-7	2-3	0.406	0.516
13	Carolina Panthers	6	9	0	0.400	4-7	2-3	0.478	0.520
14	Pittsburgh Steelers	7	8	0	0.467	4-7	2-3	0.457	0.476
15	Miami Dolphins	7	8	0	0.467	5-6	2-3	0.414	0.480
16	New Orleans Saints	7	8	0	0.467	5-6	3-2	0.448	0.527
17	St. Louis Rams	7	7	1	0.500	6-4-1	4-0-1	0.481	0.524
18	Dallas Cowboys	8	7	0	0.533	5-6	3-2	0.408	0.511
19	New York Giants	8	7	0	0.533	7-4	2-3	0.521	0.544
20	Chicago Bears	9	6	0	0.600	6-5	2-3	0.419	0.533
21	x-Cincinnati Bengals	9	6	0	0.600	6-5	2-3	0.348	0.427
22	Washington Redskins	9	6	0	0.600	7-4	4-1	0.452	0.496
23	Minnesota Vikings	9	6	0	0.600	6-5	3-2	0.437	0.507
24	x-Indianapolis Colts	10	5	0	0.667	7-4	3-2	0.367	0.422
25	y-Baltimore Ravens	10	5	0	0.667	8-3	4-1	0.433	0.484
26	x-Seattle Seahawks	10	5	0	0.667	7-4	2-3	0.537	0.509
27	x-San Francisco 49ers	10	4	1	0.700	6-4-1	2-2-1	0.500	0.520
28	y-Green Bay Packers	11	4	0	0.733	8-3	5-0	0.445	0.498
29	y-New England Patriots	11	4	0	0.733	10-1	5-0	0.470	0.502
30	y-Denver Broncos	12	3	0	0.800	9-2	5-0	0.400	0.480
31	y-Houston Texans	12	3	0	0.800	10-1	5-0	0.428	0.480
32	c-Atlanta Falcons	13	2	0	0.867	9-2	3-2	0.415	0.418

The first tiebreaker for draft position is strength of schedule (lower SOS gets the higher pick in round 1).
After SOS, the next tie-breakers are conference record and division record. After that it comes down to a coin flip.

Note that the Rams own the Redskins' 1st round pick as a result of the RGIII trade.

Interesting Notes: 

• Note that the order has been modified to ensure that the 12 "playoff" teams as of week 15 are given draft slots 21-32