Thursday, October 25, 2012

NFL Power Poll, Week 7


Rank (Last)
Team
Record
Notes
1 (1)
6-0
Good news Atlanta fans, the bye week meant that the Falcons didn't have to claw and scrape their way to a squeaker of a win over a less-than-imposing foe.
2 (2)
6-1
Normally, with the #1 team on a bye, a 30-point thrashing of a 5-1 team would be enough to vault the #2 team to #1 in the rankings. That I didn't is not a measure of the Texans, but rather of the calliber of their competition: a Ravens team decimated by defensive injuries and handicapped by the continued presence of Joe Flacco at the quarterback position.
3 (3)
5-1
Another game, and another dominant effort from the defense. The offensive performance was somewhat dissapointing, though if there's one thing the Lions defense does well, it's attack the quarterback. Combine that with Chicago's terrible offensive line, and you understand how Cutler neglected to torch Detroit's terrible secondary.
4 (4)
5-2
Not nearly as impressive a win as the weekend before, but in all fairness, the Giants were at home this time, and everyone knows it's harder to win home games than away ones…wait what?
5 (5)
5-2
The two most impressive things about their win over Seattle: 1) San Francisco's ability to gash the middle of the Seahawks defense with trap runs in the second half 2) The 49ers' ability to win while taking the ball out of their quarterback's hands (not just after they took the lead, as they took the lead as well)
6 (9)
5-2
Weird stat of the win #1: Minnesota's run defense gave up 104 yards (and 5.2 yards per carry) to LaRod Stephens-Howling). Both because Minnesota has been much better at run defense than pass defense for a long time, and because Stephens-Howling is only playing because Arizona's top 2 backs are both hurt.
7 (6)
4-3
The bad: Seattle is now 0-3 in the division, which likely means their chances of winning said division are already shot. The good: For one full half of football on the road in a short week against a top-5 opponent, the Seahawks were the better team on the field.
8 (10)
4-3
Okay, we now have 5 weeks of evidence that Green Bay's elite offense is dead and never coming back, and two straight weeks of evidence that the offense is back and as good as ever. So…which is it?
9 (7)
5-2
Baltimore absolutely could have reached the Super Bowl last year with Joe Flacco as their quarterback…because the defense was still performing well. This year's defense is decimated by injuries, so Baltimore cannot reach the Super Bowl this year with Joe Flacco as their quarterback, unless he picks up his game and gains some form of consistency.
10 (8)
4-3
It's hard looking at New England and reconciling what we actually see with what we expect from the Patriots. We expect the Patriots to take care of business against the teams outside of the top-10, because that's what the Patriots of the last few years did. But this year's Patriots are not an elite team. They're a good team, but not a great one. That means they will actually be subject to the week-to-week ebbs and flows that most of the league is subject too. It will lead to some losses (Arizona, Seattle), and some much tighter than expected wins (NY Jets) the likes of which we haven't seen much of recently for Belichick and Brady.
11 (11)
3-3
This seems like a perfect spot for Denver, right outside the top-10. Denver doesn't seem quite good enough to knock off a top-tier team, but they are good enough to take care of the teams they should beat, and win most of the games against teams at their level (even if they fall behind 24-0 at halftime). In an AFC West that looks even worse than last season, that's more than enough for a seat at the playoffs table.
12 (12)
3-3
The story with Philadelphia hasn't changed in 22 games (since the start of last season): If they can cut down on the turnovers and actually play up to their talent level, they'll be fine. Of course, when you're still wondering about those things 22 games later, then it's fair to wonder if either will ever happen.
13 (13)
3-3
There's enough talent here to take the bad division that they're located in, but in the end, how can you trust this team to make the 2 or 3 plays necessary to win with the game on the line?
14 (15)
3-4
By all rights they shouldn't be this high. The defense, especially the pass defense, is bad. But RG3 covers up so many sins. This team won't make the playoffs, but it will end the season having knocked off more than their fair share of teams that do.
15 (16)
3-3
A lmited team led by a green rookie quarterback. But if teams were measured on heart and grit, they'd be in the top 8, and that will keep them relevant to the playoff discussion in the mediocre AFC.
16 (19)
3-3
Is this the end of this era for Pittsburgh? A couple of weeks ago this division looked signed, sealed, and delivered to Baltimore, and the Steelers looked to be fading fast before our eyes. But now Baltimore looks shaky up in their perch, and Pittsburgh (for all their flaws) has a quarterback who knows how to get it done under the brightest lights. With the AFC so mediocre, the playoffs suddenly look to be within reach. And with Baltimore's defense plagued by injury, the division might not be farfetched either.
17 (14)
4-3
Was the 4-0 start a mirage? No, that's too strong. This defense is legitimately very good, and Larry Fitzgerald can cover many flaws on offense. But the offensive line is terrible and the quarterback situation isn't great. You can succeed without one of those two (Chicago), but not both.
18 (18)
3-3
No, the team isn't good. But they are light years away from last season's wretched team (which culminated with the chance to select Andrew Luck, so it wasn't all bad). And I don't know how you could look at this team and not conclude they are certainly headed in the right direction.
19 (20)
2-4
Not as bad as their record would indicate, but unfortunately for them, they don't play in the AFC. They're already at least two games behind everyone else in their own division, not to mention some of the other teams in the conference. Just like the 5-0 start last year effectively carried them into the playoffs, their 2-4 start this year could sabotage their hopes. If you're looking for why the poor start, look at the Matthew Stafford-Calvin Johnson TD hookups, or rather, the lack of them.
20 (17)
3-4
I'm sure when St. Louis agreed to give up a home game to Roger Goodell's England experience, they didn't imagine they'd be a mere two games off the division lead with a 2-0 record within said division halfway through this season. There's a big difference playing New England at home and playing New England "at home" across the Atlantic.
21 (24)
3-3
Boy, that opening week Giants win seems like it was from another season, doesn't it?
22 (25)
2-4
Are the Saints in the middle of turning their season around? Not with that defense, which still can't stop anyone. And not in the NFC, with so many teams on the right side of .500 already.
23 (21)
3-4
Russell Wilson vs the Pats secondary: 16/27, 10.9 yards per attempt, 3 TDs, 0 INT. Mark Sanchez vs the Pats secondary: 28/41, 8.0 yards per attempt, 1 TD, 1 INT. One of these guys is on his 4th year in the league. And he's the reason the Jets aren’t going anywhere in their current state.
24 (27)
3-4
At the beginning of the season, Tennessee made the entirely defensible decision to hand the reins to second-year QB Jake Locker. It likely meant a step back for the Titans (9-7 and missed the playoffs by a tiebreaker last season), but given that they had invested the #8 pick overall on Locker last year (and that Hasselbeck is on his last legs), it made sense. But now, Hasselbeck has led the team to wins over medicore teams Pittsburgh and Buffalo in back-to-back weeks. With the AFC so wide open, what do they do now when Locker comes back?
25 (23)
3-4
How on earth does AJ Green only get 1 catch for 8 yards in any game? Green may be the best receiver in the game right now (he's certainly in the top 5), and Pittsburgh's defense is no great shakes. How do 6 targets turn into those numbers?
26 (26)
2-4
Tampa Bay fans have hope given Josh Freeman's numbers from the past two games. And yes, they look stellar: 39/68, 748 yards, 6 TDs, 1 INT. But look who those numbers came against: Kansas City and New Orleans. Don't get those hopes up too high.
27 (22)
3-4
An absolutely shameful season so far for the Bills, especially the "revamped" defense. 35 points to the Titans?
28 (29)
2-4
Getting a win is good. Having to slog to an overtime win over the Jags without Maurice Jones-Drew is bad. Very bad.
29 (30)
1-6
They may have the worst record in the league, but they get more bang for their buck (in terms of results versus the talent on the roster) than any of the three teams below them.
30 (28)
1-5
You know the feeling that the Redskins players seem to have, that as long as they keep fighting, their quarterback will find a way to lead them to victory? Carolina players felt that way about Cam Newton last year. They feel the exact opposite of that feeling right now.
31 (31)
1-5
As far as I know, there's no truth to the rumor that Kansas City fans packed Arrowhead Stadium on the Chiefs bye week just to boo the team for a solid three hours. But I wouldn't blame them if they had done that.
32 (32)
1-5
Good news, Jaguars fans, for all your woes, there is no quarterback controversy! Now for the bad news: that's only because your backup came in after Blaine Gabbert got hurt and stunk up the joint so bad, no fan in his right mind would dare call for him no matter how bad Gabbert looks over the next 10 weeks.

Biggest risers:
Minnesota, Pittsburgh, Dallas, New Orleans, Tennessee (3 spots) - It's not a great sign when simply taking care of business against a team you should beat warrants the largest jump in the rankings. The lone exception to this is Tennessee, who beat a team with more talent than them for the second week in a row (Pittsburgh, Buffalo). 

Biggest faller:
Buffalo (5 spots) - The offense doesn't have the juice it had for the first half of last season, and the defense isn't holding up anything close to its fair share. 

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