Wednesday, December 21, 2011

NFC Playoff Picture, Week 15





























































































































NFC Playoff Picture
RkTeamWLTPctDivConf
1y-Green Bay1310.9294-010-0
2y-San Francisco1130.7863-18-2
3x-New Orleans1130.7693-17-3
4Dallas860.5712-26-4
5Atlanta950.6432-26-4
6Detroit950.6433-26-5
-Seattle770.5003-16-4
-Chicago770.5002-26-4
-New York Giants770.5002-34-7
-Arizona770.5003-26-5
-Philadelphia680.4293-14-6


y – division champion, x – playoff berth

Remaining Schedules:
Green Bay: CHI, DET
San Francisco: @SEA, @STL
New Orleans: ATL, CAR
Dallas: PHI, @NYG
Atlanta: @NO, TB
Detroit: SD, @GB
Seattle: SF, @ARI
Chicago: @GB, @MIN
NY Giants: @NYJ, DAL
Arizona: @CIN, SEA
Philadelphia: @DAL, WAS

Green Bay needs to beat Josh McCown-led Chicago and they clinch home field advantage. Or they could beat Detroit, but much more likely, the Pack will have nothing to play for against the Lions (bad news for all of the 7-7 teams hoping for a chance).

San Francisco needs to equal New Orleans' win total in the final 2 games and they get the other 1st round bye. It really comes down to this weekend: the 49ers play at Seattle and the Saints host Atlanta on Monday Night. In week 17? San Francisco draws the hopeless Rams and the Saints get Carolina, so if they're tied after Monday night, hand the bye to the 49ers.

Atlanta and Detroit each have the same road: win one out of two and they're in the playoffs. Atlanta has New Orleans this weekend, then Tampa Bay, so they're probably in. Detroit has San Diego and a Green Bay team with likely nothing to play for, so they have a slightly harder road, but who knows what Green Bay will do.

Dallas either needs to beat Philly this weekend and have the Giants lose to the Jets, or they need to beat the Giants in New York in week 17.

The Giants need to win out. Philly needs to win out AND for the Giants to lose to the Jets, as in a 3-way 8-8 tie, Philly wins the division thanks to their 5-1 divisional record.

The teams on the outside looking up at the wild card spots need to win out and get quite a bit of help (at least one of Atlanta/Detroit needs to lose out, and even that would not be enough in all cases).

Potential AFC games that could be flexed to Sunday Night Football in week 17:
Note: The NFL prefers to have a playoff spot riding on the outcome of the final game of the season. Two years ago this game was Jets-Bengals, where the Jets had to win to get in. Last year St. Louis and Seattle squared off for the NFC West. This would have been the NFL's dream, except the division winner was going to have a paltry 7 or 8 wins. The flex decision will happen next Tuesday.

Detroit at Green Bay - This could be a Detroit wins and they're in and/or Green Bay wins and they get the #1 seed. But it's much more likely to mean nothing, especially with Green Bay no longer in play for 16-0. Odds: 2%

Seattle at Arizona - Could be a play in game for the #6 spot. Would require Detroit losing twice (including in week 17). Or Atlanta losing twice (then it would only be a play in game for Arizona). Odds: 5%

Dallas at New York Giants - Unless Dallas wins AND the Giants lose this weekend, this will at least be a win-and-you're-in game for Dallas. If the Giants win this weekend, then this game will be flexed as it will be a play-in game for the NFC's 4th seed. Odds: 60%

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