Wednesday, December 14, 2011

NFC Playoff Picture, Week 14



















































































































NFC Playoff Picture
RkTeamWLTPctDivConf
1y-Green Bay13001.0004-010-0
2y-San Francisco1030.7693-18-2
3x-New Orleans1030.7693-16-3
4New York Giants760.5382-24-6
5Atlanta850.6152-26-4
6Detroit850.6153-26-5
-Chicago760.5382-26-3
-Dallas760.5382-25-4
-Seattle670.4623-15-4
-Arizona670.4623-26-5


y – division champion, x – playoff berth

Remaining Schedules:
Green Bay: @KC, CHI, DET
San Francisco: PIT, @SEA, @STL
New Orleans: @MIN, ATL, CAR
NY Giants: WAS, @NYJ, DAL
Atlanta: JAX, @NO, TB
Detroit: @OAK, SD, @GB
Chicago: SEA, @GB, @MIN
Dallas: @TB, PHI, @NYG
Seattle: @CHI, SF, @ARI
Arizona: CLE, @CIN, SEA

There's an extra tier here in the NFC, thanks to the 13-0 Packers, who are getting the #1 overall seed. If they can beat Kansas City, or Caleb Hanie-led Chicago, or Detroit in week 17, they wrap up home field advantage through the Super Bowl.

The race for the 2 seed is more interesting, as San Francisco has the edge, thanks to their 2 conference losses versus the Saints' 3. However, New Orelans has 2 easy games and 1 touhg one left, while the 49ers have 1 tough game (PIT), 1 easy game (STL), and 1 who the heck knows, Tarvaris Jackson is prominently involved, game (SEA). If the Saints lose to Atlanta, the 49ers will likely get the second bye, as they would only have to beat Pittsburgh OR Seattle to accomplish that. I don't see the 49ers going 3-0 the rest of the way, and with Atlanta looking very vulnerable against bad teams, it says here that New Orleans gets the 2 seed.

The NFC East likely comes down to Week 17, and for the second year in a row, the battle for the NFC's 4th seed will likely play out on NBC as the final game of the regular season.

That leaves the 2 wild card spots. It will take a 9-7 record to nab a wild card spot, and with the Falcons likely to get to 10 wins, I feel pretty confident they get the 5-spot.

The 6th and final spot is more interesting. Detroit has a tough-looking schedule these last 3 weeks, as the Raiders and Chargers are fighting for their playoff lives while the Pack will (maybe) be going for 16-0, and the game is in Wisconsin. 2 losses opens the door for
- The NFC East loser, who cannot be better than 9-7 (as they play each other again). With Dallas playing Philly and the Giants facing the Jets as well, this team might be at 8-8, especially with the Cowboys lack of running back options outside of Felix Jones.
- Chicago, who we could take seriously, if, you know, Caleb Hanie didn't hold their fate in his hands (well, until he throws it away to the other team). Their game against Seattle this week will effectively eliminate one of these teams from the race.
- Seattle, who is riding a 4-1 record in the season's second half (and the 1 was a now very important come from ahead loss to the Redskins at home). The Seahawks actually have 2 elimination games in their last 3, the Bears game mentioned above, and a week 17 tilt against...
- Arizona, who has shockingly come back from 1-6 to have a seat at the table. As much as I would love for the Seattle-Arizona game to decide a playoff berth, I don't see either of these teams being consistent enough to win their last 3 in a row to make things interesting.

The only team I see threatening the Lions is potentially the Giants, and the Giants would lose a tiebreaker to the Lions thanks to New York's sub-.500 conference record in this scenario.

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