Tuesday, October 7, 2014

NFL Standings: NFC, Week 5

I said I was dropping the standings updates and power poll for this season, but I couldn't do it. Both are going to look a little different than last season.

First off, I am splitting the standings posts into AFC and NFC versions. 

Secondly, I am adding some information to these posts. The basic information (W/L/T/Winning percentage) is still there of course, as is information that is relevant to tiebreakers (division and conference record, strength of victory and strength of schedule). 

I have added information related to each team's Pythagorean record (it's a relationship of points scored and points allowed) and the strength of a team's remaining schedule. Why? The NFL season is so short that it can be hard to see differences between teams via their record alone. If Team A is 4-1 but has played bottom-feeders while winning each game by a field goal, and Team B is 3-2, but has played top teams and won going away, it's hard to see that in the standings. While this information is not at all material to who gets into the postseason, I believe it will help show relative team strength each week, which may help predict who gets the 12 postseason spots. 


NFC
NFC EAST

Team
W
L
T
Pct
Conference
Division
SOV
SOS
PF
PA
Pythag%
RoS SOS

Philadelphia Eagles
4
1
0
0.800
2
1
0
1
0
0
0.263
0.330
156
132
0.598
0.591

Dallas Cowboys
4
1
0
0.800
2
1
0
0
0
0
0.363
0.410
135
103
0.655
0.518

New York Giants
3
2
0
0.600
2
2
0
1
0
0
0.400
0.510
133
111
0.606
0.527

Washington Redskins
1
4
0
0.200
0
3
0
0
2
0
0.000
0.550
112
136
0.387
0.545
NFC NORTH

Team
W
L
T
Pct
Conference
Division
SOV
SOS
PF
PA
Pythag%
RoS SOS

Detroit Lions
3
2
0
0.600
2
1
0
1
0
0
0.467
0.520
99
79
0.631
0.459

Green Bay Packers
3
2
0
0.600
2
2
0
2
1
0
0.333
0.470
134
106
0.635
0.500

Minnesota Vikings
2
3
0
0.400
2
2
0
0
1
0
0.325
0.450
101
126
0.372
0.445

Chicago Bears
2
3
0
0.400
1
2
0
0
1
0
0.400
0.520
116
131
0.428
0.500
NFC SOUTH

Team
W
L
T
Pct
Conference
Division
SOV
SOS
PF
PA
Pythag%
RoS SOS

Carolina Panthers
3
2
0
0.600
3
0
0
1
0
0
0.400
0.480
104
120
0.416
0.509

Atlanta Falcons
2
3
0
0.400
2
2
0
2
0
0
0.300
0.470
151
143
0.532
0.532

New Orleans Saints
2
3
0
0.400
2
2
0
1
1
0
0.300
0.460
132
141
0.461
0.541

Tampa Bay Buccaneers
1
4
0
0.200
0
4
0
0
3
0
0.600
0.450
103
156
0.272
0.495
NFC WEST

Team
W
L
T
Pct
Conference
Division
SOV
SOS
PF
PA
Pythag%
RoS SOS

Arizona Cardinals
3
1
0
0.750
2
0
0
1
0
0
0.667
0.688
86
86
0.500
0.483

Seattle Seahawks
3
1
0
0.750
2
0
0
0
0
0
0.517
0.588
110
83
0.661
0.533

San Francisco 49ers
3
2
0
0.600
2
2
0
0
1
0
0.667
0.630
110
106
0.522
0.500

St. Louis Rams
1
3
0
0.250
1
3
0
0
0
0
0.200
0.550
84
119
0.305
0.579


A quick primer on what all of this information is:
Team, W(ins), L(osses), T(ies), and Pct (winning percentage) are all self-explanatory. 
The Conference and Division records are separated into separate columns for Wins/Losses/Ties. This was purely a formatting move designed to help me update the tables more efficiently. 
PF - Points For (points scored by the team for the season)
PA - Points Against (points scored by the team's opponents for the season)
Pythag% - Pythagorean winning percentage - this is based on PF and PA
RoS SOS - Rest of Season Strength of Schedule

And, because we are a quarter of the way through the season (every team has now played at least 4 games), here are the current playoff standings for the conference:

NFC
CURRENT PLAYOFF PICTURE

Team
W
L
T
Pct
Conference
Division
SOV
SOS
PF
PA
Pythag%
RoS SOS

Philadelphia Eagles
4
1
0
0.800
2
1
0
1
0
0
0.263
0.330
156
132
0.598
0.591

Arizona Cardinals
3
1
0
0.750
2
0
0
1
0
0
0.667
0.688
86
86
0.500
0.483

Carolina Panthers
3
2
0
0.600
3
0
0
1
0
0
0.400
0.480
104
120
0.416
0.509

Detroit Lions
3
2
0
0.600
2
1
0
1
0
0
0.467
0.520
99
79
0.631
0.459

Dallas Cowboys
4
1
0
0.800
2
1
0
0
0
0
0.363
0.410
135
103
0.655
0.518

Seattle Seahawks
3
1
0
0.750
2
0
0
0
0
0
0.517
0.588
110
83
0.661
0.533

San Francisco 49ers
3
2
0
0.600
2
2
0
0
1
0
0.667
0.630
110
106
0.522
0.500

New York Giants
3
2
0
0.600
2
2
0
1
0
0
0.400
0.510
133
111
0.606
0.527

Green Bay Packers
3
2
0
0.600
2
2
0
2
1
0
0.333
0.470
134
106
0.635
0.500

Interesting bits of information:


  • The Cardinals and 49ers see their schedules get considerably easier the remainder of the season. 
  • The Eagles and Cowboys have feasted on weak competition to this point, but their schedules will be much more difficult going forward. More alarmingly, the Saints will see their sechedule get stronger the rest of the way, and they are currently sitting on the wrong side of .500. 
  • The Redskins and Falcons both have stronger pythagorean winning percentages than their actual ones. This is mainly due to blowout wins over the Jaguars (Washington) and Buccaneers (Faclons). 
  • The Eagles, Cowboys, and Panthers are the beneficiaries of inflated records, if the pythagorean data is to be believed. In fact, the Panthers have the pythagorean win percentage of a sub-.500 team thanks to the fact that they have allowed more points than they have scored on the season. 

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