NFL Playoff Power Poll, Wildcard Edition

As promised, here is a playoff edition of the power poll. Unlike the regular season power polls, which try to capture where each team is at that point in the season, this poll tries to handicap the ability of each team to hoist the Lombardi trophy. It takes into account both how the team is playing at this time AND the possible roads they could take to the end goal.

Rank	Team	Record/     Seed	Notes
1		13-3        AFC-1	Spots 1 and 2 in this power poll are separated by a hair. They also help demonstrate how the "road" a team has in front of it plays into the playoff power poll, as my week 17 regular season power poll reversed the top two teams. While I would take New England over Denver on a neutral field right now, these two teams wouldn't meet on a neutral field. They'd meet in Denver. And while I don't think the Patriots will be cowed by playing in Denver, I do think the altitude will hinder the Pats' ability to run their up-tempo attack, giving Denver a slight edge on New England.
2		12-4     AFC-2	Yes, the Patriots are ranked above the top NFC team. No, that's not to hedge my bets on my Denver as top team pick. It's because I don't respect the rest of the AFC's chances to do much of anything in the playoffs. The AFC is a 2-horse race. If the Patriots aren't playing the Broncos for one Super Bowl berth I will be shocked. Meanwhile, the NFC is anywhere from a 4-to-6 horse race, depending on how you feel about Washington and Minnesota.
3		11-4-1       NFC-2	San Francisco gets the top NFC spot over Green Bay essentially because they won out in the race for the NFC's second seed, meaning if these two teams play each other, it will be in San Francisco. Yes the 49ers beat the Packers in Lambeau this season, but that was all the way back in week 1. Is it irrelevant? Not at all, but these two teams look substantially different from how they looked then, thanks to injuries and Jim Harbaugh's gut.
4		11-5       NFC-3	If you couldn't tell, I expect the winner of the expected 49ers-Packers divisional playoff game to represent the NFC in the Super Bowl.
5		13-3        NFC-1	I have made my stance on Atlanta pretty clear, their 13-3 record is soft. That opinion is shared by many. Partly because their strength of schedule was easiest in the league, and partly because they haven't won a playoff game under Mike Smith. But, their road is as easy as possible: win two home games and they're in the Super Bowl, so they get bumped up ahead of a team I think they'd lose to head-to-head.
6		11-5       NFC-5	Yes, right now I'd take Seattle head-to-head over Atlanta in Atlanta. But, in order for Seattle to make the Super Bowl, they will likely have to win 3 straight road games. Now seems like a good time to mention that a) they haven't won a road playoff game since 1983, and b) they are among the NFL's youngest teams. Could they put a couple of bug road wins together? Sure. But three in a row, with one of them in San Francisco or Green Bay? That's a very tall order.
7		10-6      NFC-4	I'd feel much better about them if Robert Griffin III didn't look so limited by his knee injury last Sunday night.
8		10-6        NFC-6	Three straight road games where their only offensive threat is running back Adrian Peterson? I don't see it happening. That I have Minnesota ranked this high tells you what I think of seeds 3-6 in the AFC.
9		12-4         AFC-3	At one point this season, Houston looked like easily the top AFC team. Granted, that was over a month and a half ago, but they were there once. It's possible they could get back to that level again. I can't see it happening, but it is possible.
10		10-6         AFC-4	Baltimore looked great at one point this season too. But then the calendar hit October, Joe Flacco regressed to Joe Flacco levels and the defense was decimated by injuries. The ship on Baltimore's Super Bowl hopes has sailed. But of all of these 4 AFC teams, Baltimore may be the most likely to break up the destined Denver-New England showdown.
11		10-6        AFC-6	We're in the really long-shot section here, but Cincinnati's defense is very good right now, especially against the pass. Their offense is a work in progress, but it does feature arguably the best WR in the league not named Calvin Johnson.
12		11-5        AFC-5	Indy could absolutely pull off the first round upset, and might have a slightly better chance of doing so than Cincinnati, even. But I cannot see the Colts getting back the next round under any circumstances.