I was all set to pick Cincinnati here, despite picking Cincinnati in this very game last year and having it blow up in my face. Houston has looked so bad recently, and Cincinnati was 4-1 in December. Like last year, Cincinnati has relied on its defense to lead the way. Unlike last year, they are a true force against the pass and the run going into the playoffs. But like last year, their offense is not a force. AJ Green is a force, but that's it. The rest of their offense is very shutdownable (do you like that, I just made it up). In the end, both teams have good defenses, but Houston's offense, even during its downward spiral, is significantly better.
GREEN BAY (-7.5) over Minnesota
I don't see anything that indicates Minnesota will be able to stop Green Bay. And while Adrian Peterson did run all over the Packers, he did that in both games, and Minnesota lost the other one 23-14. The difference in the 2 games? Christian Ponder. Look at his stats in each Green Bay game.
|
Game
|
CMP
|
ATT
|
YDS
|
COMP%
|
YPA
|
TD
|
INT
|
QBR
|
RAT
|
|
@GB, L 23-14
|
12
|
25
|
119
|
48.0
|
4.76
|
1
|
2
|
3.1
|
41.9
|
|
vs GB, W 37-34
|
16
|
28
|
234
|
57.1
|
8.36
|
3
|
0
|
94.6
|
120.2
|
Keep in mind QBR goes from 0 to 100. He was terrific in the win and abysmal in the loss. This game, it's a road game, where Ponder struggles. And it's in Green Bay, where he struggled mightily.
Indianapolis (+7) over BALTIMORE
Do I trust Baltimore's offense to pull away from the Colts? No. Do I trust Baltimore's defense to hold a lead over Andrew Luck as he comes charging back in the 4th quarter? Best case scenario for the Ravens? They give up the ol' backdoor cover to Andrew Luck. Worst case? Flacco gets outdueled in his own stadium and Chuckstrong sends Ray Lewis off into retirement.
Seattle (-3) over WASHINGTON
The old me would have picked the Redskins to hedge my bets, so that something would be salvaged with a Seahawks loss on Sunday. It's not that I'm ultra-confident that the Seahawks will win, it's still a road game across the country and the Redskins are playing very well. But I'm buying into this Seahawks team. The defense has its warts: the pass rush is inconsistent at best, they struggle against slot receivers, and they lost their ability to stop the run back in week 7. But even with all of that, they're the top scoring defense in the league. Oh yeah, and their offense put up 193 points in 5 December games. I think they have enough to go into Washington and come out with a win.
Last week: 8-8 (.500)
Midweek Season record: 7-8-2 (.471)
Regular Season: 114-133-9 (.463)
2011 Midweek Season record (6 weeks): 2-6 (.250)
2011 Regular Season (7 weeks): 51-55-4 (.482)
2011 Postseason: 6-5 (.545)
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