I can see the argument for Baltimore. Their defense is healthier, they're still playing for their emotional leader and trying to stave off his retirement another week. But they have never stopped Peyton Manning, be he with the Colts or the Broncos.
So you're asking me to believe Joe Flacco will keep his offense running with Mannings. Not happening.
Green Bay (+3) over SAN FRANCISCO
Either Justin Smith is mostly healthy and effective, and the 49ers win, or he isn't and they don't. I'm saying he isn't healthy, won't be effective, and the 49ers lose.
Seattle (+2.5) over ATLANTA
In the second half of the season, one of these teams is 7-1 with a point differential of +161. The other team is 5-3 with a point differential of +43. Even though the second team is at home, I say the first team is better enough to overcome that.
NEW ENGLAND (-9.5) over Houston
Houston wants to slow this game down, run the ball alot, and limit Tom Brady's possessions. Basically, they want to relive the 2010 AFC Divisional playoff where the Jets confused Tom Brady and the offense and held onto the ball against a terrible Patriots defense and ended up winning the game.
On problem, this isn't the 2010 (or 2011) Patriots defense. If you want to beat this defense you do it through the air. And the one guy Texans fans are most worried about right now is Matt Schaub, because he's
See, Houston loved that win over the Bengals last week, even as anyone watching it wanted to gouge their eyes out at such terrible looking playoff football. They love to shorten the game, run the football, take the points, and let their defense win the game for them. That won't fly this weekend, and I don't trust the Texans to adjust.
Last week: 3-1 (.750)
Regular Season: 114-133-9 (.463)
2011 Postseason: 6-5 (.545)
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