Championship Sunday Games

49ers 28, Falcons 24

This was eerily similar to how Atlanta's divisional round game played out. Last week Atlanta jumped out to a 20-0 lead, this week it was 17-0. Last week Atlanta lost its lead when they gave up 28 points to their opponent, just like they did this week.

The difference? Last week Atlanta scored 10 second-half points. This week they were goose-egged. Last week Atlanta made two plays to put themselves in field goal range to win the game back. This week they couldn't make either of two plays to prolong their penultimate drive.

Given that Seattle and San Francisco are cut from the same mold, the similarities aren't as surprising as they'd first appear.

I have to give 49ers offensive coordinator Greg Roman (and I'm sure Jim Harbaugh as well) credit. They crushed Green Bay last week with the read option. Specifically, Kaepernick crushed them with 183 yards rushing, an NFL record for a quarterback. Some coordinators and coaches would see that and design their offense for the next game entirely around that, since they did it so well. But Roman and Harbaugh thought a move ahead: they knew Atlanta would be looking to shut down the read option, so they called 1 designed run for Kaepernick in the enitre NFC Championship game. Atlanta sat on the read option all day, so San Francisco let Frank Gore gash them on runs and kept Kaepernick in the pocket, where he calmly dissected the Falcons' terrible pass defense.

Ravens 28, Patriots 13

There was a lot of optimism in New England last week. Fans who had been dreading going to Denver to face Peyton Manning were beyond relieved that they would be hosting the Ravens instead. The Vegas line reflected this, as the spread was a whopping 8 points.

It didn't turn out that way, obviously. Even in the first half, where the Patriots dominated, they could not pull away from the Ravens. Whether you want to blame the suddenly conservative play calling (punting multiple times on the Ravens side of the field), Baltimore's red zone defense, or New England's own mistakes, the Ravens were able to hang around, even while being outplayed.

Then the game turned, for two reasons:
1. Wes Welker's drop on 3rd and 8 from the Baltimore 34 with 10:15 to go in the 3rd quarter. Baltimore had punted on their opening drive of the 2nd half, and the Patriots were driving for more points. Welker had the first down and was wide open on the pass, he simply didn't make a relatively easy play. The Patriots end up punting and Baltimore finally gets rolling, scoring a touchdown on their next 3 possessions.

2. Baltimore offensive coordinator took the shackles off of Joe Flacco. On their first 6 offensive possessions, Baltimore opened with a run 5 times. Exactly one of those 5 times did the running play gain more than 3 yards. That meant Baltimore's offense was stuck in second and long pretty much all throughout their first 6 drives. This against a Patriots defense that excels at interior rush defense, stinks at pass defense, and had already lost their best cornerback to a hamstring injury. Unsurprisingly, these 6 drives netted a whopping 7 points.

But starting with drive 7, Jim Caldwell finally attacked the Patriots' weakness, instead of their strength. All of a sudden, Flacco was slinging it and the Patriots couldn't stop him. While the Patriots weren't playing great football offensively, they weren't going to hand Baltimore chances to beat them, Baltimore was going to have to take this game from the defending AFC Champs. It wasn't until the Ravens shed the conservative game plan that they became a legitimate threat to win the game.

The big question out of this game is, has Joe Flacco made the leap that Eli Manning made last year? Is he at leats on the cusp of being an elite quarterback? I've been as outspoken as anyone that Flacco is not an elite quarterback, but weren't we saying many of the same things about Eli Manning before last year...

- "He's too inconsistent to be considered elite"
- "He was basically along for the ride for their earlier playoff successes"
- "Would you really take him over Peyton? Brady? Brees? Aaron Rodgers?"

...and then Eli went out and led the Giants to a Super Bowl win last year. Joe Flacco is now one win away from doing the same thing.

Take a look at the following numbers:

	Comp	Att	Comp%	Yds	TD	INT	Passer Rtg	Yds/Att	W/L	Score	Opp Score
QB A	24.2	38.9	63.3%	266.5	2.1	1.3	88.1	7.0	8-7	25.1	21.5
QB B	16.9	29.4	55.6%	216.4	1.7	0.6	86.2	7.2	6-3	24.4	18.3
QB C	19.9	32.4	61.5%	228.7	1.5	0.7	89.3	7.1	8-3	19.8	17.3

Quarterback A throws more passes, completes more of them, and throws for more yards and slightly more touchdowns. Quarterback B takes better care of the football, throws for more yards per attempt, and the results (points per game) are essentially equal. Quarterback C has the higher completion percentage and a few extra yards than Quarterback B.

Quarterback B is Joe Flacco in the playoffs outside of his rookie season (2009-2012). Quarterback C is Eli Manning's postseason career stats. Quarterback A is Tom Brady in the playoffs from the 2005 season onwards. Is Joe Flacco Tom Brady's equal in the playoffs? That's a question that can't be answered with a few selectively chosen statistics.

But what this does say, is what standard are we holding Joe Flacco to in denigrating him? He doesn't hold up to the clutch quarterbacks? Well look at his stats versus Eli's. You'd be better off with an elite quarterback piloting the Ravens in the playoffs? Well, like who, as Tom Brady hasn't been demonstrably better in recent years.

Will Joe Flacco ever be a consistent 62% completion percentage guy? Probably not. Will be have maddening slump games where the offense looks atrocious? Probably. But are the Ravens likely to do better than him if they let him walk to free agency after the season ends? Almost assuredly no.