CONCACAF Hexagonal, June Preview

This is a big month in the CONCACAF region's quest to qualify for the World Cup. Each team plays 3 qualifiers this month, after which only 40% of the qualifying matches will remain.

Schedule/Results

4-Jun	Jamaica	0	1	Mexico	6
7-Jun	Costa Rica			Honduras	4
7-Jun	Jamaica			United States	4
7-Jun	Panama			Mexico	4
11-Jun	Honduras			Jamaica	5
11-Jun	Mexico			Costa Rica	5
11-Jun	United States			Panama	5
18-Jun	Costa Rica			Panama	6
18-Jun	United States			Honduras	6

Updated Table:

Hex	GP	W	D	L	GD	GF	GA	Pnt	Pts/15	Pts/20
Mexico	4	1	3	0	1	3	2	6	11	18
Panama	3	1	2	0	2	5	3	5	13	18
Costa Rica	3	1	1	1	1	4	3	4	15	19
United States	3	1	1	1	0	2	2	4	15	19
Honduras	3	1	1	1	-1	4	5	4	13	17
Jamaica	4	0	2	2	-3	1	4	2	10	14

For a discussion of the Pts/15 and Pts/20 columns, see the After 1 game report

In the After 3 games report, I mentioned how it looked like there might not be any pushovers in this year's hexagonal. One mere game later, that statement looks a little premature. With a home loss to Mexico, Jamaica is on track to be the minnow in this year's shark-infested qualifying waters.

The main argument against Jamaica being the weakling of this group? They achieved a scoreless draw in Mexico in their first game. A fluke in scheduling gave the Reggae Boys a chance to really put the screws to the Mexican team earlier than anticipated, but instead Mexico delivered the message that they have finally righted themselves. All accounts indicate Mexico dominated their June 4th game, and that is the Mexico we expected to see from the beginning.

That makes tonight's game extremely important for Team USA. The Americans lost in Jamaica during the previous round of qualifying, which gave US Soccer fans everywhere a bit of a cardiac event. The US recovered and moved on to the hexagonal round. This time around, a loss could be more damaging. Panama has gone into Jamaica and earned a point. Mexico earned three. Both teams currently sit above the USA in the standings (granted it's early and Mexico has played an extra game). But if Jamaica is to be this year's sacrificial lamb, the USA cannot afford to give up points that, right now, they have to expect their competitors to accumulate.

After they play Jamaica, the USA will finish June with 2 more home games. The US needs 7 points from these three games to give itself some solid footing. The team that took a 4-1 lead on Germany less than a week ago can certainly achieve that, if not better. The team that let that game turn into a dogfight that they held on to win 4-3 could easily jeopardize any (or all) of these three games.

The road game in Jamaica gives the US a chance to bank some points and give themselves some breathing room for their two home matches. It also would give themselves 4 road points with 2 more away games still to come, which is what it has historically taken to finish top-4 and guarantee at least a chance to qualify for the World Cup.