But before I get to that, let's take a quick look back at our NFL history. Since the league added the Texans and transitioned to the four 4-team divisions per conference format, here is what the playoff seeds for each conference have looked like:
Year
|
League
|
1
|
2
|
3
|
4
|
5
|
6
|
2002
|
AFC
|
Raiders
|
Titans
|
Steelers
|
Jets
|
Colts
|
Browns
|
NFC
|
Eagles
|
Buccaneers
|
Packers
|
49ers
|
Giants
|
Falcons
|
|
2003
|
AFC
|
Patriots
|
Chiefs
|
Colts
|
Ravens
|
Titans
|
Broncos
|
NFC
|
Eagles
|
Rams
|
Panthers
|
Packers
|
Seahawks
|
Cowboys
|
|
2004
|
AFC
|
Steelers
|
Patriots
|
Colts
|
Chargers
|
Jets
|
Broncos
|
NFC
|
Eagles
|
Falcons
|
Packers
|
Seahawks
|
Rams
|
Vikings
|
|
2005
|
AFC
|
Colts
|
Broncos
|
Bengals
|
Patriots
|
Jaguars
|
Steelers
|
NFC
|
Seahawks
|
Bears
|
Buccaneers
|
Giants
|
Panthers
|
Redskins
|
|
2006
|
AFC
|
Chargers
|
Ravens
|
Colts
|
Patriots
|
Jets
|
Chiefs
|
NFC
|
Bears
|
Saints
|
Eagles
|
Seahawks
|
Cowboys
|
Giants
|
|
2007
|
AFC
|
Patriots
|
Colts
|
Chargers
|
Steelers
|
Jaguars
|
Titans
|
NFC
|
Cowboys
|
Packers
|
Seahawks
|
Buccaneers
|
Giants
|
Redskins
|
|
2008
|
AFC
|
Titans
|
Steelers
|
Dolphins
|
Chargers
|
Colts
|
Ravens
|
NFC
|
Giants
|
Panthers
|
Vikings
|
Cardinals
|
Falcons
|
Eagles
|
|
2009
|
AFC
|
Colts
|
Chargers
|
Patriots
|
Bengals
|
Jets
|
Ravens
|
NFC
|
Saints
|
Vikings
|
Cowboys
|
Cardinals
|
Packers
|
Eagles
|
|
2010
|
AFC
|
Patriots
|
Steelers
|
Colts
|
Chiefs
|
Ravens
|
Jets
|
NFC
|
Falcons
|
Bears
|
Eagles
|
Seahawks
|
Saints
|
Packers
|
|
2011
|
AFC
|
Patriots
|
Ravens
|
Texans
|
Broncos
|
Steelers
|
Bengals
|
NFC
|
Packers
|
49ers
|
Saints
|
Giants
|
Falcons
|
Lions
|
In the table above, for any given year, teams that had missed the playoffs the year prior are shown by a white background, while the playoff returners have a gray background. As you can see, there were never fewer than 5 returning playoff teams (4 times, most recently last year) and there were never more than 8 such clubs (once, in 2003). On average each season 6 teams qualify for the playoffs who did not make the postseason the year before.
This means some teams are going to come out of nowhere to make the playoffs this year, while others who had a strong 2011-12 will not repeat those performances.
So, how will it all shake out? Here's what I came up with.
AFC
|
NFC
|
||||||
Team
|
W
|
L
|
T
|
Team
|
W
|
L
|
T
|
New England Patriots (1)
|
12
|
4
|
0
|
Philadelphia Eagles (4)
|
10
|
6
|
0
|
Buffalo Bills (6)
|
9
|
7
|
0
|
New York Giants
|
9
|
7
|
0
|
New York Jets
|
7
|
9
|
0
|
Dallas Cowboys
|
8
|
8
|
0
|
Miami Dolphins
|
4
|
12
|
0
|
Washington Redskins
|
5
|
11
|
0
|
Team
|
W
|
L
|
T
|
Team
|
W
|
L
|
T
|
Baltimore Ravens (4)
|
10
|
6
|
0
|
Green Bay Packers (1)
|
13
|
3
|
0
|
Cincinnati Bengals
|
9
|
7
|
0
|
Chicago Bears (5)
|
11
|
5
|
0
|
Pittsbugh Steelers
|
9
|
7
|
0
|
Detroit Lions
|
8
|
8
|
0
|
Cleveland Browns
|
3
|
13
|
0
|
Minnesota Vikings
|
4
|
12
|
0
|
Team
|
W
|
L
|
T
|
Team
|
W
|
L
|
T
|
Houston Texans (2)
|
12
|
4
|
0
|
Atlanta Falcons (3)
|
10
|
6
|
0
|
Tennessee Titans
|
7
|
9
|
0
|
New Orleans Saints
|
8
|
8
|
0
|
Indianapolis Colts
|
6
|
10
|
0
|
Tampa Bay Buccaneers
|
6
|
10
|
0
|
Jacksonville Jaguars
|
5
|
11
|
0
|
Carolina Panthers
|
6
|
10
|
0
|
Team
|
W
|
L
|
T
|
Team
|
W
|
L
|
T
|
Denver Broncos (3)
|
11
|
5
|
0
|
San Francisco 49ers (2)
|
11
|
5
|
0
|
Kansas City Chiefs (5)
|
10
|
6
|
0
|
Seattle Seahawks (6)
|
10
|
6
|
0
|
San Diego Chargers
|
8
|
8
|
0
|
Arizona Cardinals
|
6
|
10
|
0
|
Oakland Raiders
|
6
|
10
|
0
|
St. Louis Rams
|
3
|
13
|
0
|
Giving us a playoff picture of
2012
|
AFC
|
Patriots
|
Texans
|
Broncos
|
Ravens
|
Chiefs
|
Bills
|
NFC
|
Packers
|
49ers
|
Falcons
|
Eagles
|
Bears
|
Seahawks
|
First, let's take a look at the 5 teams that won't be returning to the postseason in January:
- Pittsburgh Steelers – I think we finally see a step back for the Steelers. The defense is getting old and Roethlisberger isn’t healthy now. With his offensive line not looking any better and his running game in shambles with Mendenhall’s injury, Ben’s going to miss some time, and that will cost this team crucial games in the standings.
- Cincinnati Bengals – I’m not predicting a step back for the Bengals, I’m just not seeing the step forward that many are predicting. The Bengals don’t have the age-related issues that the NFL teams in their division (sorry, Cleveland) have, but they are very reliant on a second-year QB and WR combo to provide offense. I think they grow, but slowly, and a harder schedule means that growth doesn’t lead to a jump in wins.
- New York Giants – Yes they are the champs. They’re also a very inconsistent regular season team that doesn’t do a very good job protecting its home turf. With the improvement in Dallas and Philly (and the RGIII show ready to fly in D.C.) this division could easily go one of three ways, and the smallest misstep could be very costly for the Giants.
- Detroit Lions – So much went right for this team last season, and given the tenor of the team when things got a little hard towards the end of last season, I’m not sure I trust Jim Schwartz to lead this team through actual adversity.
- New Orleans Saints – Teams always talk a good game about remaining insulated against major distractions, but those distractions almost always show up on the field. Barring injury, the offense will be fine. The defense is a concern. If the offense takes even a small step back (and they were so good last season that a small regression wouldn’t be a surprise) the defense could very well cost them enough games to fall out of playoff position.
- Kansas City Chiefs – The Chiefs had their home run threat go down in week 1 last year (Jamaal Charles. And while ACLs take closer to 2 years for the player to get back close to normal, Charles will still have his speed, and Kansas City only gives him ~15 touches a game anyway. Adding Peyton Hills with something to prove is a perfect complement to Charles, and with a legitimate running game and defense, Matt Cassel won’t end up overwhelmed like last year.
- Buffalo Bills – I’m buying on this defense. Mario Williams may not put up the numbers that contract expects, but he will allow the pieces around him to function much more effectively. Add in a presumably full season of Fred Jackson plus the regression of the Jets and Dolphins, and that should be just enough to get this team back into the postseason since the days of Doug Flutie.
- Philadelphia Eagles – So much went wrong for this team last season, and they still ended up one game out of first. More impressively, they ended the season with a 5-1 record against their NFC East compatriots. Even allowing for Vick missing 2-4 games, I think they’ll be smarter and hungrier than last year’s “Dream Team”.
- Chicago Bears – After 10 games, the Bears were 10-3 with the following teams left on their schedule: Oakland, Kansas City, Denver, Seattle, Green Bay, and Minnesota. Not exactly a murderer’s row. Unfortunately, Jay Cutler had broken his thumb and all they had left was Caleb Hanie. Hanie proceded to play terribly, forcing the Bears to sign Josh McCown off his couch for the final two games, but by ten it was too late for the Bears. With Mike Martz gone, the offense will presumably prioritize protecting Cutler rather than feeding Martz’s ego, and 16 games of Jay Cutler should have this team in the playoffs.
- Seattle Seahawks – This defense, especially the secondary is legit. The defensive line should rush the passer significantly better than last season, which should make the secondary even more dangerous. The linebackers are young, but they’re swarming. Yes they have a rookie quarterback, but they are set up to have a season very similar to San Francisco’s 2011, only Russell Wilson is better than Alex Smith.
WILD CARD ROUND
|
|
AFC (3v6)
|
Broncos over Bills
|
AFC (4v5)
|
Ravens over Chiefs
|
NFC (3v6)
|
Seahawks over Falcons
|
NFC (4v5)
|
Bears over Eagles
|
DIVISIONAL ROUND
|
|
AFC (1v4)
|
Patriots over Ravens
|
AFC (2V3)
|
Texans over Broncos
|
NFC (1V6)
|
Packers over Seahawks
|
NFC (2V5)
|
Bears over 49ers
|
CHAMPIONSHIP ROUND
|
|
AFC
CHAMPIONSHIP
|
Texans over Patriots
|
NFC
CHAMPIONSHIP
|
Packers over Bears
|
SUPER BOWL
|
|
SB XLVII
|
Packers over Texans
|
Will it end up this way? Probably not. But that's the beauty of the NFL, something unexpected is going to happen, and that's why it seems like so many of the 32 teams have a chance at the postseason. With only 16 games and the potential for injury to cloud the picture, you simply never know what might happen. And whatever does happen, football is back for another season. Enjoy!
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