Team
|
 |
 |
|||
Record
|
10-6
|
6th
|
11-5
|
3rd
|
|
Reg. Season
|
Rank
|
Reg. Season
|
Rank
|
||
Efficiency Statistics
|
Total
|
26.66
|
1
|
10.15
|
9
|
Rush YPC
|
4.5
|
7
|
4.7
|
4
|
|
Def YPC
|
3.6
|
4
|
4.3
|
21
|
|
Pass YPA
|
8.3
|
2
|
7.2
|
18
|
|
Def YPA
|
6.1
|
5
|
6.7
|
13
|
|
Total
|
3.1
|
1
|
0.9
|
11
|
|
Takeaways
|
23
|
16
|
22
|
19
|
|
Giveaways
|
16
|
3
|
17
|
5
|
|
Big Plays For
|
93
|
3
|
91
|
5
|
|
Big Plays Vs
|
51
|
1
|
72
|
8
|
|
Differential
|
49
|
2
|
24
|
6
|
|
Points Scored
|
2.43
|
3
|
2.12
|
11
|
|
Points Allowed
|
1.59
|
6
|
1.71
|
12
|
|
Differential
|
0.84
|
3
|
0.41
|
8
|
|
3rd Down/ Red Zone
|
3rd Down For
|
46.50%
|
4
|
38.20%
|
20
|
3rd Down Against
|
34.40%
|
4
|
34.50%
|
5
|
|
3D Differential
|
12.10%
|
1
|
3.70%
|
11
|
|
Red Zone For
|
55.10%
|
16
|
50.00%
|
25
|
|
Red Zone Against
|
42.11%
|
3
|
45.24%
|
4
|
|
DVOA
|
Offense
|
18.50%
|
2
|
0.00%
|
16
|
Defense
|
-15.20%
|
4
|
-1.80%
|
14
|
|
Special Teams
|
4.20%
|
3
|
3.90%
|
4
|
|
Total
|
38.00%
|
1
|
5.70%
|
11
|
|
Weighted Total
|
51.10%
|
1
|
12.80%
|
10
|
|
This looks like a mismatch on paper (which is why Seattle is favored by 5 despite being the road team). Look at the table above, there isn't one row where Minnesota has an edge on the Seahawks. Not one! Oh, and these two teams played in week 13. In Minnesota. Seattle won 38-7.
There are some important caveats to that score. Minnesota were missing 4 defensive starters (Linval Joseph, Anthony Barr, Harrison Smith, and Andrew Sendejo). Seattle had Thomas Rawls, who is now on IR.
The problem is that still leaves us with Seattle's defense against Minnesota's offense, which was a colossal mismatch in that game. The Vikings offense managed a whopping 125 yards and zero points (Minensota's touchdown was on a kick return). And they were healthy, maybe even healthier than they will be this weekend (especially with Adrian Peterson nursing a back injury).
The biggest factor in Minnesota's favor? The weather. It's slated to be 1 degree on Sunday afternoon in Minnesota, with the wind chill makign it feel well below zero. It's not that Minnesota is much better equipped to play in the cold, it's that extreme weather makes for unanticipated effects, could push scoring down, and will likely induce a fluke bounce or two.
The pick: Seahawks 23, Vikings 13 (Seahawks -5)
Team
|
 |
 |
|||
Record
|
10-6
|
5th
|
9-7
|
4th
|
|
Reg. Season
|
Rank
|
Reg. Season
|
Rank
|
||
Efficiency Statistics
|
Total
|
-0.36
|
16
|
4.28
|
12
|
Rush YPC
|
4.2
|
15
|
3.7
|
29
|
|
Def YPC
|
4.5
|
27
|
4.8
|
30
|
|
Pass YPA
|
6.7
|
28
|
7.7
|
6
|
|
Def YPA
|
6.6
|
12
|
7.3
|
25
|
|
Total
|
-0.2
|
21
|
-0.7
|
26
|
|
Takeaways
|
22
|
19
|
27
|
8
|
|
Giveaways
|
17
|
5
|
22
|
16
|
|
Big Plays For
|
92
|
4
|
63
|
30
|
|
Big Plays Vs
|
88
|
26
|
93
|
31
|
|
Differential
|
9
|
12
|
-25
|
26
|
|
Points Scored
|
1.92
|
18
|
2.16
|
10
|
|
Points Allowed
|
1.77
|
13
|
2.09
|
17
|
|
Differential
|
0.15
|
12
|
0.07
|
14
|
|
3rd Down/ Red Zone
|
3rd Down For
|
33.70%
|
28
|
43.50%
|
5
|
3rd Down Against
|
35.90%
|
9
|
37.70%
|
12
|
|
3D Differential
|
-2.20%
|
20
|
5.80%
|
6
|
|
Red Zone For
|
53.85%
|
18
|
61.22%
|
8
|
|
Red Zone Against
|
57.14%
|
16
|
55.10%
|
13
|
|
DVOA
|
Offense
|
2.50%
|
11
|
1.90%
|
12
|
Defense
|
-7.30%
|
9
|
5.40%
|
21
|
|
Special Teams
|
0.40%
|
17
|
3.20%
|
6
|
|
Total
|
10.20%
|
10
|
-0.30%
|
15
|
|
Weighted Total
|
-3.90%
|
19
|
7.70%
|
12
|
|
If Green Bay were going to break out of their months-long offensive funk, we'd have seen evidence of that by now. Their offensive line is battered, Rodgers is totally off-rhythm, and their receivers aren't winning hardly any 1v1 battles against good defenses. The question is, are the Redskins a good enough defense? I don't have high faith in their cornerbacks, so I lean towards "no".
Also, the Redskins are awful when it comes to running the football. 29th in YPC and 30th in YPC allowed. Green Bay is desperate to run the ball to take pressure off of their much maligned passing game, and it looks like they'll be able to establish Eddie Lacy in this one.
Essentially, both of these teams are flawed, but I think the Packers can hide their flaws a little better than Washington can in this one.
The pick: Packers 27, Redskins 23 (Green Bay PICK 'EM)
2014 Postseason: 6-5 (.545) / Miles' 2014 Postseason: 6-5 (.545)
2013 Postseason: 4-5-2 (.455) / Miles' 2013 Postseason: 6-3-2 (.636)
2012 Postseason: 6-4-1 (.591)
2011 Postseason: 6-5 (.545)
2011 Postseason: 6-5 (.545)
2015 Season: 125-124-7 (.502)
2015 Midweek Picks: 10-7-1 (.583)
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