Team
|
 |
 |
|||
Record
|
11-5
|
5th
|
9-7
|
4th
|
|
Reg. Season
|
Rank
|
Reg. Season
|
Rank
|
||
Efficiency Statistics
|
Total
|
15.04
|
4
|
11.18
|
8
|
Rush YPC
|
4.7
|
3
|
3.7
|
28
|
|
Def YPC
|
4.1
|
17
|
4.1
|
18
|
|
Pass YPA
|
7.4
|
12
|
6.6
|
29
|
|
Def YPA
|
6.1
|
4
|
6.1
|
3
|
|
Total
|
1.9
|
5
|
0.1
|
16
|
|
Takeaways
|
29
|
5
|
25
|
13
|
|
Giveaways
|
15
|
2
|
20
|
11
|
|
Big Plays For
|
85
|
7
|
71
|
24
|
|
Big Plays Vs
|
74
|
12
|
73
|
11
|
|
Differential
|
25
|
5
|
3
|
15
|
|
Points Scored
|
2.23
|
8
|
1.66
|
26
|
|
Points Allowed
|
1.57
|
4
|
1.58
|
5
|
|
Differential
|
0.66
|
6
|
0.08
|
13
|
|
3rd Down/ Red Zone
|
3rd Down For
|
38.20%
|
19
|
38.60%
|
18
|
3rd Down Against
|
33.20%
|
3
|
28.50%
|
1
|
|
3D Differential
|
5.00%
|
7
|
10.10%
|
3
|
|
Red Zone For
|
57.41%
|
14
|
57.78%
|
13
|
|
Red Zone Against
|
60.00%
|
24
|
56.41%
|
15
|
|
DVOA
|
Offense
|
11.70%
|
6
|
-8.70%
|
24
|
Defense
|
-11.40%
|
6
|
-9.30%
|
8
|
|
Special Teams
|
2.40%
|
7
|
-5.70%
|
32
|
|
Total
|
25.60%
|
5
|
-5.00%
|
18
|
|
Weighted Total
|
37.60%
|
2
|
5.50%
|
13
|
|
A low scoring game is the most likely outcome, and that means one or two breaks could very well swing things. Add in Kansas City's playoff drought (no wins since 1993) and Houston's recent mastery of the 4:30PM Saturday Wild Card game (just ask Andy Dalton), and there's almost enough there to think about going with the home 'dog. But almost doesn't count in playoff picks.
The pick: Chiefs 19, Texans 10 (Kansas City -3)
Pittsburgh (-2.5) at CINCINNATI
Team
|
 |
 |
|||
Record
|
10-6
|
6th
|
12-4
|
3rd
|
|
Reg. Season
|
Rank
|
Reg. Season
|
Rank
|
||
Efficiency Statistics
|
Total
|
7.38
|
10
|
12.18
|
7
|
Rush YPC
|
4.4
|
8
|
3.9
|
20
|
|
Def YPC
|
3.8
|
6
|
4.3
|
22
|
|
Pass YPA
|
8.2
|
3
|
8.1
|
4
|
|
Def YPA
|
7.0
|
18
|
6.2
|
6
|
|
Total
|
1.8
|
7
|
1.5
|
8
|
|
Takeaways
|
30
|
4
|
28
|
6
|
|
Giveaways
|
28
|
22
|
17
|
4
|
|
Big Plays For
|
90
|
6
|
77
|
15
|
|
Big Plays Vs
|
71
|
7
|
52
|
2
|
|
Differential
|
21
|
7
|
36
|
3
|
|
Points Scored
|
2.23
|
9
|
2.3
|
5
|
|
Points Allowed
|
1.69
|
11
|
1.55
|
2
|
|
Differential
|
0.54
|
7
|
0.75
|
5
|
|
3rd Down/ Red Zone
|
3rd Down For
|
38.90%
|
17
|
40.30%
|
13
|
3rd Down Against
|
40.00%
|
21
|
39.40%
|
18
|
|
3D Differential
|
-1.10%
|
18
|
0.90%
|
15
|
|
Red Zone For
|
60.71%
|
10
|
65.52%
|
5
|
|
Red Zone Against
|
49.12%
|
6
|
47.37%
|
5
|
|
DVOA
|
Offense
|
17.30%
|
3
|
18.60%
|
1
|
Defense
|
-3.80%
|
11
|
-7.00%
|
10
|
|
Special Teams
|
0.10%
|
18
|
2.20%
|
9
|
|
Total
|
21.30%
|
7
|
27.90%
|
2
|
|
Weighted Total
|
26.80%
|
4
|
23.10%
|
5
|
|
So...which is it? Are the Pittsburgh Steelers the team no one in the AFC wants to face? Or are they the team that barely squeaked into the postseason? Are they the team with a passing attack that lit the Seahawks' defense on fire a month-plus ago? Or are they the team that lost to the Ryan Mallett-led Ravens in week 16? Are they a juggernaut? Or are they just a 6-seed?
Honestly? No one knows. Some might say they do, but no one does. If they did, we'd have an explanation for the lackluster performances from the past 2 weeks, just as Pittsburgh seemed to be hitting their darkhorse stride.
Here's the thing: Cincinnati is a really good team. 2nd in DVOA. 7th in my rankngs. And their defense does a great job of stopping the pass. What they don't do well is stop the run. Unfortunately for the Steelers, LeVeon Bell is on IR and DeAngelo Williams may miss this game as well due to an injury picked up in Week 17. If they can't have a semblance of balance to their attack, it should be easier for the Bengals to limit the damage Roethlisberger and company can cause. I don't love AJ McCarron's ability to hang with Ben in a shootout, but he will lead the offense to some points, mainly because Pittsburgh's pass defense is no good.
The pick: Bengals 24, Steelers 23 (CINCINNATI +2.5)
Honestly? No one knows. Some might say they do, but no one does. If they did, we'd have an explanation for the lackluster performances from the past 2 weeks, just as Pittsburgh seemed to be hitting their darkhorse stride.
Here's the thing: Cincinnati is a really good team. 2nd in DVOA. 7th in my rankngs. And their defense does a great job of stopping the pass. What they don't do well is stop the run. Unfortunately for the Steelers, LeVeon Bell is on IR and DeAngelo Williams may miss this game as well due to an injury picked up in Week 17. If they can't have a semblance of balance to their attack, it should be easier for the Bengals to limit the damage Roethlisberger and company can cause. I don't love AJ McCarron's ability to hang with Ben in a shootout, but he will lead the offense to some points, mainly because Pittsburgh's pass defense is no good.
The pick: Bengals 24, Steelers 23 (CINCINNATI +2.5)
2014 Postseason: 6-5 (.545) / Miles' 2014 Postseason: 6-5 (.545)
2013 Postseason: 4-5-2 (.455) / Miles' 2013 Postseason: 6-3-2 (.636)
2012 Postseason: 6-4-1 (.591)
2011 Postseason: 6-5 (.545)
2011 Postseason: 6-5 (.545)
2015 Season: 125-124-7 (.502)
2015 Midweek Picks: 10-7-1 (.583)
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