Seattle at CAROLINA (-2.5)
Team
|
Seattle
|
Carolina
|
|||
Record
|
10-6
|
6th
|
15-1
|
1st
|
|
Reg. Season
|
Rank
|
Reg. Season
|
Rank
|
||
Efficiency Statistics
|
Total
|
26.66
|
1
|
19.81
|
3
|
Rush YPC
|
4.5
|
7
|
4.3
|
9
|
|
Def YPC
|
3.6
|
4
|
3.9
|
7
|
|
Pass YPA
|
8.3
|
2
|
7.7
|
8
|
|
Def YPA
|
6.1
|
5
|
5.8
|
2
|
|
Total
|
3.1
|
1
|
2.3
|
3
|
|
Takeaways
|
23
|
16
|
39
|
1
|
|
Giveaways
|
16
|
3
|
19
|
8
|
|
Big Plays For
|
93
|
3
|
95
|
2
|
|
Big Plays Vs
|
51
|
1
|
61
|
4
|
|
Differential
|
49
|
2
|
54
|
1
|
|
Points Scored
|
2.43
|
3
|
2.53
|
2
|
|
Points Allowed
|
1.59
|
6
|
1.57
|
3
|
|
Differential
|
0.84
|
3
|
0.96
|
1
|
|
3rd Down/ Red Zone
|
3rd Down For
|
46.50%
|
4
|
42.40%
|
7
|
3rd Down Against
|
34.40%
|
4
|
37.90%
|
14
|
|
3D Differential
|
12.10%
|
1
|
4.50%
|
8
|
|
Red Zone For
|
55.10%
|
16
|
68.25%
|
2
|
|
Red Zone Against
|
42.11%
|
3
|
52.50%
|
10
|
|
DVOA
|
Offense
|
18.50%
|
2
|
9.90%
|
8
|
Defense
|
-15.20%
|
4
|
-18.40%
|
2
|
|
Special Teams
|
4.20%
|
3
|
-2.40%
|
23
|
|
Total
|
38.00%
|
1
|
25.90%
|
4
|
|
Weighted Total
|
51.10%
|
1
|
30.80%
|
3
|
|
I believe this will be the best game of the weekend. These two teams are pretty good mirrors of each other. Strong defense, strong running game, strong commitment to the running game, and a mobile quarterback who frustrates defenses with his ability to move around and keep plays alive. The thing is, I believe Seattle does most of these things just a little bit better than the Panthers do.
The Seahawks' rush defense has better numbers than the Panthers. The Panthers pass defense numbers are better, but their pass numbers are trending down (283 yards per game over the last month) while Seattle's are trending up (142.3 yards per game over the last month). The Panthers feast on takeaways, but Seattle was 3rd in the league at taking care of the football.
Seattle's rushing numbers are better than Carolina's, and that's with pre-season cast-off Christine Michael toting the tock for the last month. Granted, Carolina has been without Jonathan Stewart for a few weeks as well.
And if we're choosing quarterbacks, I'm going to take Wilson over the (rightful) MVP. Cam has had a great year, and he has made great strides in his ability, but Wilson has been on fire until Mother Nature (literally) iced him down last weekend in Minnesota. If both defenses can contain the opposing quarterback in the pocket, are you really going to buy Cam Newton outplaying Russell Wilson?
Finally, these two teams have played 5 times in the last 4 seasons. The results?
2012: Seattle 16, CAROLINA 12
2013: Seattle 12, CAROLINA 7
2014: Seattle 13, CAROLINA 9
2014 (playoffs): SEATTLE 31, Carolina 17
2015: Carolina 27, SEATTLE 23
The fan in me feels very nervous at how confident I feel going into this game. It won't be an easy game, but I trust Seattle to make a couple more plays in the end.
The pick: Seahawks 27, Panthers 24 (Seattle +2.5)
Team
|
Pittsburgh
|
Denver
|
|||
Record
|
10-6
|
6th
|
12-4
|
1st
|
|
Reg. Season
|
Rank
|
Reg. Season
|
Rank
|
||
Efficiency Statistics
|
Total
|
7.38
|
10
|
6.09
|
11
|
Rush YPC
|
4.4
|
8
|
4.2
|
13
|
|
Def YPC
|
3.8
|
6
|
3.3
|
1
|
|
Pass YPA
|
8.2
|
3
|
7.0
|
22
|
|
Def YPA
|
7.0
|
18
|
5.6
|
1
|
|
Total
|
1.8
|
7
|
2.3
|
4
|
|
Takeaways
|
30
|
4
|
27
|
9
|
|
Giveaways
|
28
|
22
|
31
|
29
|
|
Big Plays For
|
90
|
6
|
73
|
22
|
|
Big Plays Vs
|
71
|
7
|
59
|
3
|
|
Differential
|
21
|
7
|
10
|
11
|
|
Points Scored
|
2.23
|
9
|
1.78
|
23
|
|
Points Allowed
|
1.69
|
11
|
1.47
|
1
|
|
Differential
|
0.54
|
7
|
0.31
|
10
|
|
3rd Down/ Red Zone
|
3rd Down For
|
38.90%
|
17
|
35.30%
|
25
|
3rd Down Against
|
40.00%
|
21
|
35.20%
|
7
|
|
3D Differential
|
-1.10%
|
18
|
0.10%
|
17
|
|
Red Zone For
|
60.71%
|
10
|
47.73%
|
28
|
|
Red Zone Against
|
49.12%
|
6
|
59.46%
|
20
|
|
DVOA
|
Offense
|
17.30%
|
3
|
-8.80%
|
25
|
Defense
|
-3.80%
|
11
|
-25.80%
|
1
|
|
Special Teams
|
0.10%
|
18
|
0.70%
|
14
|
|
Total
|
21.30%
|
7
|
17.70%
|
8
|
|
Weighted Total
|
26.80%
|
4
|
16.30%
|
6
|
|
Much like the other AFC game this weekend, it essentially boils down to health. A healthy Pittsburgh is a nightmare matchup for the Broncos, because that offense will score and force Manning to throw to keep pace. The Broncos do not want Manning to throw a lot, his arm is at best on heavily borrowed time if not outright shot.
But this isn't a healthy Steelers offense. Their top 2 running backs are out (DeAngelo Williams isn't playing again), Antonio Brown has been ruled out due to his concussion from Vontaze Burfict's illegal, stupid, and dirty hit, and Roethlisberger is nowhere close to 100% with his shoulder thanks to Burfict's legal and clean hit. It seems clear that Roethlisberger's throwing range will be constricted, we won't know just how much until the game starts. But this Broncos defense is too good to allow a limping offense with a hobbled quarterback to come in and put up points.
This has the feel of a game where the Broncos are in control, but they can't pull away, mostly because I don't trust the Broncos to have much of a running game (Pittsburgh is just outside a top-5 rush defense).
The pick: Broncos 23, Steelers 13 (DENVER -7)
Last week: 3-1 (.750)
2014 Postseason: 6-5 (.545) / Miles' 2014 Postseason: 6-5 (.545)
2014 Postseason: 6-5 (.545) / Miles' 2014 Postseason: 6-5 (.545)
2013 Postseason: 4-5-2 (.455) / Miles' 2013 Postseason: 6-3-2 (.636)
2012 Postseason: 6-4-1 (.591)
2011 Postseason: 6-5 (.545)
2011 Postseason: 6-5 (.545)
2015 Season: 125-124-7 (.502)
2015 Midweek Picks: 10-7-1 (.583)
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