Divisional Round NFL Picks, Saturday Games

Kansas City at NEW ENGLAND (-5)

	Team	Kansas City		New England
	Record	11-5	5th	12-4	2nd
		Reg. Season	Rank	Reg. Season	Rank
Efficiency Statistics	Total	15.04	4	12.86	6
	Rush YPC	4.7	3	3.7	30
	Def YPC	4.1	17	4.0	11
	Pass YPA	7.4	12	7.7	9
	Def YPA	6.1	4	6.5	10
	Total	1.9	5	0.9	11
	Takeaways	29	5	21	22
	Giveaways	15	2	14	1
	Big Plays For	85	7	79	14
	Big Plays Vs	74	12	73	10
	Differential	25	5	13	10
	Points Scored	2.23	8	2.42	4
	Points Allowed	1.57	4	1.66	8
	Differential	0.66	6	0.76	4
3rd Down/ Red Zone	3rd Down For	38.20%	19	40.90%	11
	3rd Down Against	33.20%	3	37.30%	10
	3D Differential	5.00%	7	3.60%	12
	Red Zone For	57.41%	14	65.57%	4
	Red Zone Against	60.00%	24	57.14%	16
DVOA	Offense	11.70%	6	15.40%	5
	Defense	-11.40%	6	-3.40%	12
	Special Teams	2.40%	7	3.90%	5
	Total	25.60%	5	22.60%	6
	Weighted Total	46.00%	2	13.20%	9

You can make a case, a pretty strong one really, that the Chiefs can go into Foxboro and pull off the upset this Saturday. If you've noticed one thing about the Patriots in the last month, it's that their offensive line has been devolving by the week. That's a problem facing Kansas City, a sthey rush the passer very well, which contributes to their 4th-best YPA against figure.

But these New England Patriots aren't those New England Patriots. Those New England Patriots had a healthy stable of receivers (read: Julain Edelman and Rob Gronkowski). Gronk is important because how do you stop him? He's big, he's fast, and he has Tom Brady's trust. That equals touchdowns and explosive plays. Lots and lots of touchdowns and explosive plays. Edelman's role is a little bit more nuanced. He's not going to break many big plays, but he's going to get open. Almost every time. Better yet, he's going to get open in a way that Brady knows where he'll be when he does. That means Brady can neutralize his bad OL by getting rid of the ball quickly and the play will pick up positive yards. You can't say that about any other receiver on New England's roster, which is why the offense looked so different once Edelman got hurt.

Edelman is expected to play, but he won't be close to 100%. But Edelman doesn't need to bring explosive plays to the table. He needs to bring 3rd down conversions. The Patriots were the top 3rd down offense in the league during their 10-0 start to the season. They finished the year 11th. That is a sizable drop. If he can cut, he should be able to give Brady his security blanket back, which makes a huge difference in the offense's ability to sustain drives.

Gronk actually looks like the bigger question mark. He missed practice on Tuesday, was limited in practice on Wednesday, and missed practice Thursday. If Gronk can't go, or is severely compromised, the Patriots lose quite a bit of their explosive potential. Plus, the extra resources that would normally be devoted to Gronk would be free to help out against Brady's other weapons.

It essentially boils down to, if the Patriots' offense can somewhat resemble it's normal self, the Pats should score enough to put away the Chiefs. If the offense can't do a good true Pats offense impression, it will be a dogfight to the end (Kansas City isn't running away with anything without a healthy Maclin). I'm trusting Gronk and Edelman are healthy enough.

The pick: Patriots 27, Chiefs 19 (PATRIOTS -5)

Green Bay at ARIZONA (-7)

	Team	Green Bay		Arizona
	Record	10-6	5th	13-3	2nd
		Reg. Season	Rank	Reg. Season	Rank
Efficiency Statistics	Total	-0.36	16	24.45	2
	Rush YPC	4.2	15	4.2	12
	Def YPC	4.5	27	3.9	9
	Pass YPA	6.7	28	8.5	1
	Def YPA	6.6	12	6.4	8
	Total	-0.2	21	2.4	2
	Takeaways	22	19	33	2
	Giveaways	17	5	24	17
	Big Plays For	92	4	85	8
	Big Plays Vs	88	26	74	12
	Differential	9	12	20	8
	Points Scored	1.92	18	2.63	1
	Points Allowed	1.77	13	1.68	10
	Differential	0.15	12	0.95	2
3rd Down/ Red Zone	3rd Down For	33.70%	28	47.00%	3
	3rd Down Against	35.90%	9	35.70%	8
	3D Differential	-2.20%	20	11.30%	2
	Red Zone For	53.85%	18	60.32%	12
	Red Zone Against	57.14%	16	55.32%	14
DVOA	Offense	2.50%	11	15.80%	4
	Defense	-7.30%	9	-15.60%	3
	Special Teams	0.40%	17	-4.00%	29
	Total	10.20%	10	27.40%	3
	Weighted Total	-3.90%	19	16.20%	7

These two teams matched up in week 16 in Arizona. The Cardinals' defense sacked Aaron Rodgers 8 times on the way to a 38-8 laugher. Has enough changed in 3 weeks to expect much of a difference this time around?

Packers backers are looking at last week's game featuring 35 points and almost as many Aaron Rodgers smiles and pointing to it as evidence that the Packers' offense is back. That's just not true. The offense put up points against a bad defense, mostly because they were able to run the ball down Washington's throat. There were still numerous examples of Rodgers missing receivers, Rodgers and his receivers not being on the same page, and Rodgers running for his life in this game. Against a good defense, the Packers offense is going to struggle again. Unless Eddie Lacy and James Starks do enough damage where Aaron Rodgers can throw fewer than 10 passes in the second half again, I wouldn't be optimistic this game will be much different.

So if the Packers' offense won't fare much better than last time, can their defense up their game? There's more hope on this side of the ball. The Cardinals are a dangerous offense, but the final score from the week 16 tilt is a bit misleading. If we subtract out defensive scores and touchdowns from drives spanning less than 30 yards, Arizona put up 17 points on Green Bay. That's a lot of caveats, but it's not like the Cardinals simply spent the whole game going up and down the field on the Packers. Now, the Cardinals forced the turnovers than gave them defensive scores and the short fields, but if Green Bay can take better care of the ball (and they were 5th-best in the league in giveaways) there's hope that they can keep the game close.

I do believe the defense will play better, but it won't be enough to make up for the train wreck that the offense will revert back to.

The pick: Cardinals 34, Packers 16 (ARIZONA -7)

Last week: 3-1 (.750)

2014 Postseason: 6-5 (.545) / Miles' 2014 Postseason: 6-5 (.545)

2013 Postseason: 4-5-2 (.455) / Miles' 2013 Postseason: 6-3-2 (.636)

2012 Postseason: 6-4-1 (.591)
2011 Postseason: 6-5 (.545)

2015 Season: 125-124-7 (.502)
2015 Midweek Picks: 10-7-1 (.583)