Tuesday, November 6, 2012

Thoughts on the NFL's Week 9

As you might be able to tell from this blog, I am a rabid NFL fan. For every other sport, my interest ebbs and flows with that of the team I root for in that particular sport. But football, I'll watch almost any game you put me in front of. That, combined with the fact that I live more than 3000 miles away from my favorite team, makes me a terrific candidate for having the NFL Sunday Ticket package. 

That package is the one package that allows one access to every single NFL game each weekend. It's also exclusive to DirecTV. For years I never had the Sunday Ticket package because my house never had DirecTV, either because I wasn't in position to make the decision, or because where I lived didn't allow dishes. But a year ago DirecTV made the Sunday Ticket package available on the Playstation3, which I do have. Unfortunately, that change happened to come a) in the middle of an economic crisis, and b) after my son entered the picture. As you may or may not know, kids are the most adorable time and money sinks that exist. 

I don't use this as my introduction to try and garner sympathy, or donations (I mean, I'll take those, but they won't go towards the Sunday Ticket package). I say it to segue into my next point: I get to watch a limited number of NFL games each weekend. This means I need to make certain assumptions, based on the result of a game, the stats from the game, and the write-up from the game. Sometimes those assumptions are correct. Other times they're very much incorrect. For example...

1) Minnesota shocked most of the country by recording a 5-3 record in the first half of the season. This came on the heels of what most experts believed was a serious (read: 2 round) overdraft of quarterback Christian Ponder in the 2011 draft. Now, looking at the stats from Minnesota's 5-2 start, it didn't look like Ponder had morphed into Peyton Manning or Tom Brady, but he seemed a capable quarterback, someone who could give the offense a passing game to complement and take pressure off of elite running back Adrian Peterson. 

Then I watched the first half of the Tampa Bay-Minnesota Thursday night game, a game Tampa led 20-10 at halftime, and went on to win 36-17. Ponder didn't look that great, but I could explain some of that away with the multiple fumbles Minnesota had in the first half, which put Minnesota in a hole that Ponder was unable to lead his team out of. It was a poor effort all around, and it showed some cracks in my perceived notions of Christian Ponder, the 2012 edition, but I was willing to keep an open mind. 

Then I watched the full replay of the Vikings-Seahawks game from last weekend. Ponder looked awful. With Adrian Peterson running for 182 yards, Ponder put up this line: 11/22, 63 yards, 0 TD/1 INT. Clearly, a terrible game. What he stats don't show you, however, is just how bad Ponder looked. His throws were so far off that no one had a chance to catch a majority of his incompletions. Some were lobs thrown 7 yards out of bounds. Others were McNabb specials (passes thrown in the dirt yards away from the closest receiver, a Donovan McNabb special in his heyday). In fairness to Ponder, his receivers were very well covered. However, a quarterback drafted at 12 overall will be expected to make a play at least some of the time. Ponder showed nothing in this game to indicate he has that ability. 

2) I have been dumping on the Steelers for the better part of this season as a team that cannot stop anyone. For a month, that was true. Then they held Philadelphia to 14 points. Okay, but the Eagles have a laundry list of problems, and the following week they gave up 26 points to the Titans and lost. Then they held Cincinnati to 17 points. Okay, that's good, but the Bengals clearly aren't good this season. Then they held Robert Griffin III to 12 points. That got some attention, even if the Redskins receivers dropped at least 7 passes on the day. 

Then they went into Giants stadium, having flown in that morning, and held Eli Manning and the Giants to 13 points (one touchdown was scored by the Giants' defense). And watching the game, the Steelers defense started to look like the Steelers defenses of the past few years: pressure on the quarterback and forcing Eli into bad decisions and turnovers. All of a sudden the Steelers are 5-3, are currently in playoff position, and they just smacked the Giants in the mouth in New Jersey. 

3) Philadelphia is clearly having all sorts of trouble this season. Simply reading stats and game reports, and watching highlights paints a pretty clear picture. Heck, simply counting turnovers provides all the information you really need. But watching much of last night's Eagles-Saints game shows where the cracks are. 

Yes Michael Vick is turning the ball over too much. But the problems start with his offensive line and coaching staff. The New Orleans Saints, otherwise known as the worst defense in football in 2012, made their game plan pretty clear: blitz the tar out of Mike Vick. Despite that, the offensive line (down 3 starters going into the game) couldn't protect him (7 sacks), and the coaching staff did nothing to take the pressure off of the woeful line. Time after time Vick would take long dropbacks, or run slow-developing play action plays, and get crushed. 

Even more than the result, the video of that game convinced me that the Eagles are done, and Reid will be out at the end of the season. If the Saints defense can line up, pull no punches, and beat you, then really, what hope do you have as a team? 



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