Wednesday, November 21, 2012

NFL Draft Picture, Week 11

I can't in good conscience continue the Torpedo for Geno facade. West Virginia keeps losing, and while Geno Smith is still producing, it's not at the rate that screams "#1 overall pick!" Instead, we'll go with the significantly more boring (but much more accurate) moniker of simply, the NFL Draft Picture.

While it's been a slightly disappointing ride for Geno, that pales in comparison to the fall of Matt Barkley, the prospect, this season. USC was ranked #1 in the preseason, and the story was how Barkley came back for his senior season to lead USC out of probation into a BCS bowl instead of turning pro and possibly being the #2 overall selection.

As happens all the time with the easy-to-write stories, this one didn't transpire as expected. USC is 7-4, lost to cross-town rival UCLA, has already lost out on any chance to play in their conference title game and BCS bowl game, have their rival (Notre Dame) coming into town undefeated and ranked #1 in the country...and Matt Barkley will miss that game due to a shoulder injury. Yikes.

Here is the NFL Draft order through week 11:

2013 NFL Draft Order
Rank
Team
W
L
T
Pct
Conference
Division
SOV
SOS
1
Kansas City Chiefs
1
9
0
0.100
0-7
0-3
0.500
0.540
2
Jacksonville Jaguars
1
9
0
0.100
1-5
1-3
0.600
0.620
3
Cleveland Browns
2
8
0
0.200
2-5
1-3
0.450
0.540
4
Carolina Panthers
2
8
0
0.200
2-7
1-3
0.450
0.610
5
Oakland Raiders
3
7
0
0.300
3-4
1-2
0.267
0.510
6
Philadelphia Eagles
3
7
0
0.300
1-6
1-2
0.533
0.530
7
St. Louis Rams
3
6
1
0.350
3-3-1
2-0-1
0.467
0.545
8
San Diego Chargers
4
6
0
0.400
4-3
3-2
0.225
0.450
9
Miami Dolphins
4
6
0
0.400
3-5
1-2
0.388
0.465
10
Buffalo Bills
4
6
0
0.400
3-5
1-3
0.275
0.495
11
Detroit Lions
4
6
0
0.400
3-5
0-4
0.338
0.510
12
Washington Redskins
4
6
0
0.400
4-4
1-1
0.500
0.515
13*
New York Jets
4
6
0
0.400
3-4
2-2
0.438
0.570
14*
Tennessee Titans
4
6
0
0.400
3-4
0-2
0.450
0.570
15*
Arizona Cardinals
4
6
0
0.400
2-5
1-2
0.500
0.570
16
Cincinnati Bengals
5
5
0
0.500
3-5
1-3
0.280
0.410
17
New Orleans Saints
5
5
0
0.500
3-3
2-1
0.500
0.460
18
Dallas Cowboys
5
5
0
0.500
4-4
2-1
0.380
0.550
19
Tampa Bay Buccaneers
6
4
0
0.600
3-4
2-1
0.300
0.380
20
Minnesota Vikings
6
4
0
0.600
4-3
2-0
0.398
0.460
21
Indianapolis Colts
6
4
0
0.600
4-3
2-1
0.400
0.430
22
Pittsburgh Steelers
6
4
0
0.600
3-4
1-1
0.383
0.450
23
New York Giants
6
4
0
0.600
5-2
2-2
0.442
0.455
24
Seattle Seahawks
6
4
0
0.600
4-4
0-3
0.517
0.495
25
Chicago Bears
7
3
0
0.700
4-2
1-1
0.364
0.461
26
New England Patriots
7
3
0
0.700
6-1
3-0
0.464
0.505
27
Green Bay Packers
7
3
0
0.700
5-2
2-0
0.479
0.530
28
Denver Broncos
7
3
0
0.700
5-2
3-0
0.414
0.540
29
San Francisco 49ers
7
2
1
0.750
5-2-1
2-0-1
0.483
0.494
30
Baltimore Ravens
8
2
0
0.800
7-1
4-0
0.388
0.430
31
Atlanta Falcons
9
1
0
0.900
5-1
1-1
0.367
0.380
32
Houston Texans
9
1
0
0.900
8-0
3-0
0.444
0.470


The first tiebreaker for draft position is strength of schedule (lower SOS gets the higher pick in round 1).
After SOS, the next tie-breakers are conference record and division record. After that it comes down to a coin flip.
* designates teams who would determine the higher pick between them via a coin flip.

Note that the Rams own the Redskins' 1st round pick as a result of the RGIII trade.

Interesting Notes: 
  • Note that the order has been modified to ensure that the 12 "playoff" teams as of week 10 are given draft slots 21-32. 
  • Toughest remaining schedules among current top-5 teams:
    • Carolina - .450
    • Cleveland - .450
    • Jacksonville - .450
    • Kansas City - .450
    • Oakland - .383

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