NFL Picks, Week 10

Home teams in CAPS.

New York Giants (-4) over CINCINNATI
If I had any faith in the Bengals, I'd probably be picking them this week. The Giants looked pretty sorry on offense the last couple of games, and I think they're in a down stretch and could be had. I don't see the Giants brekaing out quite yet, but I also just don't see Cincinnati at a level to take advantage.

MIAMI (-6) over Tennessee
Teams with good defenses shut down the Titans. The Dolphins have a good defense. It's what has kept them on the edge of the playoff hunt as they break in a rookie quarterback (who has exceeded even the most optimistic expectations so far).

Detroit (-2.5) over MINNESOTA
These two teams are going in such polar opposite directions. I suspect it will look a lot like last week's Vikings game: Adrian Peterson will get his, and Christian Ponder will be incapable of lending any support, and the Vikings lose.

NEW ENGLAND (-11) over Buffalo
The last 3 Pats-Bills games have seen the Patriots score 31, 49, and 52 points. They've also seen Bills quarterback Ryan Fitzpatrick throw 10 interceptions in those three games.

Atlanta (-2.5) over NEW ORLEANS
The Saints are a very chic upset pick this week, and they have owned the Falcons recently. But until I see the Saints defense play well against an offense that has a clue (read: not the Eagles), I'm not going to trust them to give Drew Brees and the offense a chance to win it.

TAMPA BAY (-3) over San Diego
I used my Chargers picking algorithm for this one. It goes something like this: "Is the Chargers' opponent terrible, and I mean, really REALLY terrible?" No. "Pick the other team."

CAROLINA (+4) over Denver 
I can't fully explain this pick. I just think Carolina has been better than the record shows (especially on defense) these last few weeks after a really sorry start to the season.

BALTIMORE (-7.5) over Oakland
If Ray Rice doesn't get at least 25 touches in this game and it's not over by halftime, then Ravens offensive coordinator Cam Cameron should be fired. After seeing what Doug Martin did to this Raiders defense, how could the game plan be anything but riding Ray Rice?

SEATTLE (-6) over New York Jets
A Seattle defense with some wounded pride going up against Mark Sanchez and Shonn Greene? Yes please.

Dallas (-2) over PHILADELPHIA
If you like train wrecks, this game is a must-see. Dallas runs hot and cold for 3.5 quarters, then makes just enough (mis)plays to lose at the end. Philadelphia simply plays terribly for 4 quarters.

St. Louis (+11.5) over SAN FRANCISCO 
I trust St. Louis' defense enough to keep this game close. That's usually a terrible way to pick games (if you don't believe the underdog can win, don't pick them), but this year it seems to work out more (mostly because so many underdogs are winning outright). I think San Francisco's defense will throttle Sam Bradford, but also that Jim Harbaugh will respect the Rams defense, play things close to the vest, and end up winning by 7-10 points.

Houston (+1.5) over CHICAGO
I trust Matt Schaub not to go full Jay Cutler more than I trust Jay Cutler not to go full Jay Cutler. As Robert Downey Jr almost said i Tropic Thunder, you never go full Jay Cutler.

PITTSBURGH (-12.5) over Kansas City
Also known as Todd Haley's (last year's KC coach, fired with three games to go and this offseason took the Pittsburgh offensive coordinator job) revenge game.


This week: 1-0 (not a typo)
Last week: 11-3 (.786, also not a typo) 
Season: 55-72-5 (.436, you probably weren't wondering if this one was a typo)