NFL Picks, Week 13

Jacksonville (+6) over BUFFALO 
With an NFL QB under center, Jacksonville's offense has actually looked pretty frisky. And if Buffalo's defense has convinced us of anything, it's that they'll fold if pushed even the slightest bit. Chad Henne will push them, and Buffalo will not be able to pull away.

CHICAGO (-3.5) over Seattle
After last week's Miami debacle, I'm not picking Seattle on the road unless given a really good reason to do so. And Chicago's current injury situation is not drastic enough to be a really good reason to do so.

San Francisco (-7.5) over ST. LOUIS
The Rams pulled out all the stops in their first game with the 49ers (the tie). I don't think they have enough left to hang with San Francisco for round 2.

New England (-7.5) over MIAMI
Part of the reason Seattle lost to Miami is the Seahawks coaching staff will not allow the offense to approach opening things up on the road. Miami's run defense is very good. Their pass defense, less so. So, like Seattle, the Patriots will find it hard to run this weekend. Unlike Seattle, the Pats have no qualms letting Tom Brady sling the ball all over the field.

NEW YORK JETS (-4.5) over Arizona
The Jets aren't good. Mark Sanchez isn't good (to put it extremely politely). But Ryan Lindley? I think ken Whisenhunt is a good coach. But with the way he's mishandeled the quarterback position since Kurt Warner retired, I couldn't blame Arizona if they decided to fire him after this season. With John Skelton (who's not good), I'd pick Arizona here.

DETROIT (-5) over Indianapolis
Detroit is in this predicament (out of playoff contention) because they played poorly early in the season against the weak part of their schedule. They're playing well now, but their schedule has gotten harder, so they can't make up the ground they lost. They might be out of the playoffs, but as long as coach Schwartz doesn't hand the other team a touchdown again with a stupidity violation, they'll have enough to beat the Colts.

GREEN BAY (-8) over Minnesota
No Harvin means Minnesota's offense can't keep up with the Packers, especially at home.

Houston (-6.5) over TENNESSEE
The mini-bye should refresh the Texans, and allow them to run all over the Titans. And make Jake Locker's life a living hell.

Carolina (-3) over KANSAS CITY
I feel pretty good about my "Pick the team playing against Kansas City if the line is under 6" algorithm.

Tampa Bay (+7) DENVER 
Tampa is playing very well right now, and they are absolutely equipped to stay with Peyton Manning in a shootout. Line is just too high.

Cleveland (-2.5) over OAKLAND
I trust Cleveland's effort and fight. Their talent level is low, but the rest is there. Plus, their secondary is actually quite good. And they're facing Carson Palmer.

Cincinnati (-2) over SAN DIEGO
San Diego may not have sunk to Philly's level of quitting, but they're not far off. Cincinnati is back to their Dalton-era stasis where they reliably beat bad teams and lose to good ones. San Diego is nothing approaching a good team.

Pittsburgh (+8.5) over BALTIMORE 
No I don't think Pittsburgh can beat Baltimore without Big Ben. But I don't see the Steelers turning the ball over 8 times again, and I don't see Baltimore doing enough to win by double digits. I expect a game much like two weeks ago, where the Ravens take no chances, look underwhelming, and sneak out with a close win over an outmanned rival.

DALLAS (-10.5) over Philadelphia
I hate doing this, because Dallas is still the team that vomits all over itself when the going gets tough. But the Eagles have quit, and I'm not backing a team of quitters.

New York Giants (-2.5) over WASHINGTON
This seems like a total Giants letdown game. They made their point against Green Bay, now they can go to sleep for a couple more weeks before turning it on again in time for the playoffs. But Washington is the lone threat left in the division, so it says here the Giants actually take this game seriously.

This week: 1-0
Last week: 5-9-2 (.375)
Season: 74-95-7 (.440)

NFL Picks, Week 13 - Thursday Night Game

ATLANTA (-3.5) over New Orleans

90% of this pick is the fact that the game is tonight, on a short week. It's just too much of an advantage for the home team, unless there is a huge discrepancy in talent between the two teams.

Look at the road winners post week 1 in midweek games:
Giants over Panthers
Buccaneers over Vikings
Colts over Jaguars
Texans over Lions
Redskins over Cowboys
Patriots over Jets

That's 13 games, and just 2 exceptions, the Buccaneers and Redskins. For 2 teams that have been so closely matched in recent seasons, this is enough to tip the scales toward the Falcons.

NFL Power Poll, Week 12

Rank (Last)	Team	Record	Notes
1 (1)		8-2-1	Take a bow, Jim Harbaugh, your handling of the 49ers quarterback situation has been shown to be entirely 100% correct.
2 (2)		10-1	Giving up 983 yards in back-to-back weeks to the Jaguars and Lions? That's bad. Playing 2 hours, 25 minutes, 38 seconds of game over 5 days…and winning both of those games? That is impressive, no matter how ugly it looked.
3 (4)		8-3	New England's offense is clearly rolling, and while the defense still isn't good, okay is plenty good enough for this team. Okay defense that generates multiple turnovers per game? That's simply not fair.
4 (9)		7-4	I still can't explain to you why the Giants go into hibernation mode multiple times a season, but I think they've proven their point now over the last 5-6 years: when they're on, they just might be unbeatable.
5 (5)		10-1	Two stories have been written about this 2012 Falcons team. There's the "This team feasted on luck, until it ran out" story, which will be ready to go if the Falcons bow out early in the playoffs again. Then there's the "This team hardened its collective will by finding ways to win week in and week out" story for the scenario where Atlanta rides home field advantage all the way to thr Super Bowl. Both stories are true, but history, as they say, is written by the winners.
6 (7)		8-3	Even when Peyton Manning runs into his kryptonite (Chiefs coach Romeo Crennel), the Denver defense is ready and waiting to pick up the slack (albeit, against Brady Quinn). Peyton Manning makes this a dangerous team. The rest of the team makes Denver a team with serious deep playoff run aspirations.
7 (3)		7-4	Losing to a hungry Giants team under the bright lights isn't so bad. Getting run off the field by, well, anyone, shouldn't happen to this Packers team, injuries or not.
8 (6)		8-3	Chicago drove Minnesota into the Soldiers Field turf last weekend. So why did they drop 2 spots? One, Minnesota isn't great, especially without one of their two playmakers. Two, how can you trust the Bears to keep Cutler healthy for any stretch of time at this point? And we've seen what happens when Jason Campbell has to play.
9 (8)		9-2	The 4th and 29 play was exciting and all, but can anyone else see any of the other AFC division leaders needing something that ridiculous to beat the Chargers right now? Baltimore needs to pray they can get home field advantage, because if they have to play anyone of note on the road, they're toast.
10 (13)		6-5	Of the 6 teams currently fighting for the 2nd wild card spot, Tampa looks like the best team right now. A 1-point loss to the NFC's 10-1 team doesn't change that.
11 (10)		6-5	But a 3 point loss to AFC also-ran Miami does. Hence Seattle drops. I was sorely tempted to drop them further, since that was a terrible loss, but this is still the team that beat Green Bay and New England (albeit at home). Also, no one else in this tier really did anything to cover themselves in glory, either. If Seattle loses starting CBs Richard Sherman and Brandon Browner for 4 games for PEDs, they will drop further.
12 (15)		7-4	I don't believe for a second that an Indy playoff run will last beyond their firsy game. But for this team, who had the #1 overall pick in the 2012 draft, who are basically asking their rookie Qb to do everything, and who haven't had their coach since week 4 because he's getting cancer treatments? That would be an amazing run.
13 (11)		6-5	I don't think I've seen anything that ugly since I was first exposed to Kirk Hinrich the college basketball player. 8 turnovers?
14 (12)		5-6	Losing to San Francisco carries no shame, even at home. But now New Orleans is facing possibly having to win all 5 of their remaining games (certainly 4/5) to have any chance to salvage their season.
15 (16)		6-5	The good news, Cincinnati is right on the edge of the playoffs and riding a 3-game winning streak. The bad news, the only good team they beat was the Giants in the middle of their annual November funk.
16 (14)		6-5	Adrian Peterson is an absolute monster. But he can't carry the Vikings into the playoffs on his own. As important as a playoff berth would be for the Vikings, more important is that they figure out whether or not they want to go forward with Christian Ponder as their quarterback.
17 (20)		5-6	They will always be entertaining, give them that. The offense is explosive, and the defense is a sieve. But if you want a fun NFL game, look for the Redskins each week.
18 (18)		4-7	They needed a faster start. They're actually playing well (except for their coach's moronic moments), but they're into the meat of their schedule now, and they just aren't going to be able to make up the ground they need.
19 (23)		5-6	This is the Miami team that had gone missing for a couple weeks. But there they were, shutting down Seattle's vaunted ground game and hanging around offensively, then stealing the game at the final whistle.
20 (17)		5-6	Dallas is who they are, a middling team who will shoot themselves in the foot more often than not.
21 (25)		4-6-1	The good with Jeff Fisher is he'll get his team to play, even if they're outmanned from a talent standpoint. The bad with Jeff Fisher appears to be his game management, he has botched quite a few situations this season, which makes you wonder if he was doing this all along and no one noticed.
22 (19)		4-7	It's hard to get a handle on this Titans team. Between Locker's injury, their brief moments in the light (Steelers win, Bills blowout win), and their general malaise (CJ0K, the hot and cold hand at quarterback), you just can't know what to expect each week.
23 (22)		4-7	Hard to believe this offense managed a mere 13 points against the Colts defense. Just one more massive disappointment in a season filled with them.
24 (27)		3-8	For all that Cleveland and its sports fans have had to take over the years, you had to feel good for the Browns and their fans getting a rare win over their biggest rivals.
25 (24)		4-7	The first half of this game was the best comedy NBC's had on its airwaves in years. So, while the Jets won't be hoisting the Lombardi trophy anytime soon, they might get an Emmy.
26 (21)		4-7	Who knew that losing Kevin Kolb would send this team into a total tailspin?
27 (26)		4-7	If…err, when (right? Right??) the Norv Turner era finally ends in San Diego at the end of this season, won't 4th and 29 be the perfect microcosm of his entire tenure?
28 (29)		3-8	On the plus side, this team still has a pulse. On the negative side…well, pretty much everything else.
29 (28)		3-8	This team wasn't playing well, got hit hard by injuries, and now has quit on their dead man walking coach.
30 (31)		2-9	While I want to let Jaguars fans enjoy the win, what Chad Henne has done with this team in slightly under 2 full games just goes to show what a mistake the Blaine Gabbert pick was.
31 (30)		3-8	This team was already thin on talent, and the injuries have simply eroded the talent gap between the Raiders and their opponents further.
32 (32)		1-10	Kansas City is this year's Atlanta, letting a clearly terrible quarterback (last year Curtis Painter, this year Brady Quinn) play to ensure their best chance at the #1 overall pick. Unfortunately for KC, there's no Andrew Luck this year.

Biggest risers:

New York Giants (5 spots)
Miami, St. Louis (4 spots)

Biggest fallers:
Arizona (5 spots)
Green Bay (4 spots)

NFL Draft Picture, Week 12

Here is the NFL Draft order through week 12:

2013 NFL Draft Order
Rank	Team	W	L	T	Pct	Conference	Division	SOV	SOS
1	Kansas City Chiefs	1	10	0	0.091	0-8	0-4	0.455	0.537
2	Jacksonville Jaguars	2	9	0	0.182	2-5	2-3	0.500	0.595
3	Philadelphia Eagles	3	8	0	0.273	1-7	1-2	0.576	0.504
4	Oakland Raiders	3	8	0	0.273	3-5	1-2	0.273	0.512
5	Cleveland Browns	3	8	0	0.273	3-5	2-3	0.485	0.545
6	Carolina Panthers	3	8	0	0.273	3-7	1-3	0.394	0.570
7	San Diego Chargers	4	7	0	0.364	4-4	3-2	0.205	0.479
8	Buffalo Bills	4	7	0	0.364	3-6	1-3	0.295	0.517
9	Tennessee Titans	4	7	0	0.364	3-5	0-3	0.432	0.529
10	Detroit Lions	4	7	0	0.364	3-5	0-4	0.352	0.537
11	Arizona Cardinals	4	7	0	0.364	2-6	1-3	0.500	0.550
12	New York Jets	4	7	0	0.364	3-5	2-3	0.466	0.595
13	St. Louis Rams	4	6	1	0.409	4-3-1	3-0-1	0.432	0.525
14	Miami Dolphins	5	6	0	0.455	3-5	1-2	0.427	0.467
15	New Orleans Saints	5	6	0	0.455	3-4	2-1	0.473	0.483
16	Washington Redskins	5	6	0	0.455	5-4	2-1	0.455	0.508
17	Dallas Cowboys	5	6	0	0.455	4-5	2-2	0.400	0.554
18*	Cincinnati Bengals	6	5	0	0.545	4-5	1-3	0.318	0.430
19*	Tampa Bay Buccaneers	6	5	0	0.545	3-5	2-2	0.303	0.430
20	Minnesota Vikings	6	5	0	0.545	4-4	2-1	0.402	0.483
21	Pittsburgh Steelers	6	5	0	0.545	3-5	1-2	0.394	0.438
22	Seattle Seahawks	6	5	0	0.545	4-4	0-3	0.500	0.488
23	Indianapolis Colts	7	4	0	0.636	5-3	2-1	0.403	0.438
24	New York Giants	7	4	0	0.636	6-2	2-2	0.487	0.475
25	Green Bay Packers	7	4	0	0.636	5-3	2-0	0.487	0.545
26	New England Patriots	8	3	0	0.727	7-1	4-0	0.449	0.483
27	Denver Broncos	8	3	0	0.727	6-2	4-0	0.364	0.496
28	Chicago Bears	8	3	0	0.727	5-2	2-1	0.403	0.504
29	San Francisco 49ers	8	2	1	0.773	6-2-1	2-0-1	0.477	0.492
30	Baltimore Ravens	9	2	0	0.818	8-1	4-0	0.394	0.430
31	Atlanta Falcons	10	1	0	0.909	6-1	2-1	0.382	0.388
32	Houston Texans	10	1	0	0.909	8-0	3-0	0.455	0.471

The first tiebreaker for draft position is strength of schedule (lower SOS gets the higher pick in round 1).
After SOS, the next tie-breakers are conference record and division record. After that it comes down to a coin flip.
* designates teams who would determine the higher pick between them via a coin flip.

Note that the Rams own the Redskins' 1st round pick as a result of the RGIII trade.

Interesting Notes: 

• Note that the order has been modified to ensure that the 12 "playoff" teams as of week 10 are given draft slots 21-32. 
• Toughest remaining schedules among current top-6 teams:
• Philadelphia (3-8) - .527 (@DAL, @TB, CIN, WAS, @NYG)
• Carolina (3-8) - .455 (@KC, ATL, @SD, OAK, @NO)
• Jacksonville (2-9) - .455 (@BUF, NYJ, @MIA, NE, @TEN)
• Kansas City (1-10) - .436 (CAR, @CLE, @OAK, IND, @DEN)
• Cleveland (3-8) - .418 (@OAK, KC, WAS, @DEN, @PIT)
• Oakland (3-8) - .382 (CLE, DEN, KC, @CAR, @SD

Note all of the bolded games, where 2 teams currently in top-6 draft position will face off in the season's last 5 weeks.