NFL Standings: AFC, Week 10

AFC
AFC EAST
	Team	W	L	T	Pct	Conference			Division			SOV	SOS	PF	PA	Pythag%	RoS SOS
	New England Patriots	7	2	0	0.778	5	2	0	2	1	0	0.417	0.460	281	198	0.696	0.568
	Buffalo Bills	5	4	0	0.556	2	4	0	2	1	0	0.462	0.528	191	182	0.529	0.521
	Miami Dolphins	5	4	0	0.556	4	2	0	1	1	0	0.353	0.493	227	171	0.662	0.508
	New York Jets	2	8	0	0.200	2	5	0	0	2	0	0.300	0.571	174	265	0.270	0.519
AFC NORTH
	Team	W	L	T	Pct	Conference			Division			SOV	SOS	PF	PA	Pythag%	RoS SOS
	Cleveland Browns	6	3	0	0.667	4	3	0	2	2	0	0.331	0.365	209	172	0.613	0.509
	Cincinnati Bengals	5	3	1	0.611	4	3	0	2	1	0	0.369	0.480	197	211	0.459	0.521
	Pittsburgh Steelers	6	4	0	0.600	5	3	0	2	2	0	0.471	0.441	261	239	0.552	0.481
	Baltimore Ravens	6	4	0	0.600	3	4	0	2	3	0	0.381	0.477	261	181	0.704	0.461
AFC SOUTH
	Team	W	L	T	Pct	Conference			Division			SOV	SOS	PF	PA	Pythag%	RoS SOS
	Indianapolis Colts	6	3	0	0.667	5	2	0	3	0	0	0.385	0.496	290	211	0.680	0.463
	Houston Texans	4	5	0	0.444	3	2	0	1	1	0	0.278	0.465	206	197	0.526	0.424
	Tennessee Titans	2	7	0	0.222	2	5	0	1	2	0	0.383	0.532	144	223	0.262	0.446
	Jacksonville Jaguars	1	9	0	0.100	1	6	0	0	2	0	0.667	0.569	158	282	0.202	0.452
AFC WEST
	Team	W	L	T	Pct	Conference			Division			SOV	SOS	PF	PA	Pythag%	RoS SOS
	Denver Broncos	7	2	0	0.778	5	1	0	3	0	0	0.505	0.553	286	202	0.695	0.468
	Kansas City Chiefs	6	3	0	0.667	5	2	0	1	1	0	0.496	0.504	217	151	0.703	0.498
	San Diego Chargers	5	4	0	0.556	4	3	0	1	2	0	0.304	0.490	205	186	0.557	0.530
	Oakland Raiders	0	9	0	0.000	0	7	0	0	2	0	0.000	0.615	146	252	0.215	0.587

Current Playoff Standings:

AFC
CURRENT PLAYOFF PICTURE
	Team	W	L	T	Pct	Conference			Division			SOV	SOS	PF	PA	Pythag%	RoS SOS
	New England Patriots	7	2	0	0.778	5	2	0	2	1	0	0.423	0.523	281	198	0.696	0.489
	Denver Broncos	7	2	0	0.778	5	1	0	3	0	0	0.495	0.608	286	202	0.695	0.415
	Indianapolis Colts	6	3	0	0.667	5	2	0	3	0	0	0.392	0.560	290	211	0.680	0.401
	Cleveland Browns	6	3	0	0.667	4	3	0	2	2	0	0.343	0.343	209	172	0.613	0.516
	Kansas City Chiefs	6	3	0	0.667	5	2	0	1	1	0	0.503	0.495	217	151	0.703	0.499
	Cincinnati Bengals	5	3	1	0.611	4	3	0	2	1	0	0.358	0.451	197	211	0.459	0.548
	Pittsburgh Steelers	6	4	0	0.600	5	3	0	2	2	0	0.478	0.473	261	239	0.552	0.437
	Baltimore Ravens	6	4	0	0.600	3	4	0	2	3	0	0.375	0.502	261	181	0.704	0.435
	San Diego Chargers	5	4	0	0.556	4	3	0	1	2	0	0.296	0.544	205	186	0.557	0.462
	Buffalo Bills	5	4	0	0.556	2	4	0	2	1	0	0.465	0.513	191	182	0.529	0.534
	Miami Dolphins	5	4	0	0.556	4	2	0	1	1	0	0.362	0.457	227	171	0.662	0.538

A quick primer on what all of this information is:

Team, W(ins), L(osses), T(ies), and Pct (winning percentage) are all self-explanatory. 

The Conference and Division records are separated into separate columns for Wins/Losses/Ties. This was purely a formatting move designed to help me update the tables more efficiently. 

PF - Points For (points scored by the team for the season)

PA - Points Against (points scored by the team's opponents for the season)

Pythag% - Pythagorean winning percentage - this is based on PF and PA

RoS SOS - Rest of Season Strength of Schedule

NFL Picks, Week 10

Dallas (-7) over LONDON JACKSONVILLE
Tony Romo is healthy enough to practice all week, so I'm assuming Tony Romo is healthy enough to play. And while the Jaguars do rush the quarterback well, that's pretty much all that they do well. Dallas may be falling back to earth after their dream start, but losing to the Jaguars would require they fall through earth all the way to hell (or as Cowboys fans call it, December).

DETROIT (-2.5) Miami
This game will come down to the passing games of these two teams, because neither defense can be run on. I feel pretty good about saying Matt Stafford will make a few more plays in this game than Ryan Tannehill. I just don't know if those plays will be a) laser throws to his receivers, b) bad decisions that turn into good decisions because they're to Calvin Johnson, or c) sidearm throws off his back foot that sail and find Dolphins defenders. With Calvin Johnson back and healthy, I'm going to give the slight edge to the Lions.

Kansas City (-2) over BUFFALO
As of this posting, Kyle Orton's security blanket (no, not his beard, Sammy Watkins) looks pretty iffy to play. And if he does play, it presumably will be in a fairly limited capacity. I don't love the Chiefs' secondary, but Buffalo doesn't have the arsenal to attack it if Watkins isn't close to 100%.

San Francisco (+5.5) over NEW ORLEANS 
Every time the 49ers hit a rough patch, people watch to see if the team and their uber-tightly wound coach, Jim Harbaugh, will finally collapse under the strain of expectations and frustration. Every time, the 49ers respond to continue their march toward NFC Championship games. I'm betting they do it again. While the Saints have been playing much better recently, I'm not yet convinced the turnaround is for real. They may just be (easily) the best of a very bad lot (the NFC South). And San Francisco has to find a way to make things easier on their quarterback than they did last week...right?

BALTIMORE (-9.5) over Tennessee
The Ravens got some bad news this week when their top cornerback, Jimmy Smith, underwent season-ending foot surgery. They were hopeful initially that his foot sprain would heal in time for him to return before the end of the season, but no such luck. In their first full game without Smith last weekend, they gave up 6 touchdown passes to Ben Roethlisberger in a 43-21 loss.

That makes a line of 9.5 points seem awfully high, as the Ravens are beyond thin at the cornerback position. Fortunately for them, they play the Titans, who have moved on to their third starting quarterback of the season, rookie 6th round pick Zach Mettenberger. Against another team, the Ravens' defensive backfield would get exposed. But not this weekend.

Pittsburgh (-4) over NEW YORK JETS
Ben Roethlisberger has thrown 12 touchdown passes and 0 interceptions in the last two weeks. And now he gets to play the Jets secondary.

Atlanta (-2.5) over TAMPA BAY
Atlanta has terrific weapons at their skill positions, but a walking hobbling MASH unit along its offensive line. Fortunately (for the Falcons), Tampa doesn't rush the passer well, unless Gerald McCoy takes matters into his own hands.



Note to Atlanta: Don't leave your center singled up on McCoy.

Denver (-11) over OAKLAND
I'm just not sure what Oakland is going to do well against the Broncos. Offense? No. Defense? Ha! Special teams? No. Don't be fooled by the 30-24 score against the Seahawks: most of those points came off of horrid special teams play from a team barely able to dress 46 healthy bodies.

ARIZONA (-6.5) over St. Louis
The Rams' newfound ability to pressure the quarterback seems to match up well with a Cardinals team that loves to throw it deep. And that may be true. But an Austin Davis-led offense matches up even worse with a blitz-happy Cardinals defense that has made far better quarterbacks (and Brandon Weeden) melt before them.

SEATTLE (-9) over New York Giants
The Seahawks are very quietly rounding back into form defensively. No one is noticing because a) all their injuries have decimated their special teams coverage groups, handing opponents short fields (or points directly), b) they aren't covering tight ends especially well, thanks in part to injuries to their strong safety position, and c) they're performing terribly in the red zone.

But now they're starting to get healthy...healthier. Players are starting to come off the injury list instead of going on it. And Russell Wilson can't play that poorly at home again...right? Right? RIGHT?!?!?!? Why aren't you answering me?!?!?!?



GREEN BAY (-7) over Chicago
Chicago's defense isn't stopping the Packers, so it's up to Jay Cutler to play a poised, smart game and keep pace with Aaron Rodgers. Do I feel good about picking this to happen?



PHILADELPHIA (-6.5) over Carolina
The Sanchize is back!!! And yes, I'm backing him against Cam Newton and the Panthers (the Panthers defense is atrocious). Of course, so is Philly's defense. But can Cam Newton take advantage? Take a look at his numbers from the past 3 weeks (all Panthers losses):

Comp.	Att.	Yards	YPA	TD	INT	QBR	Passer Rtg
17	31	205	6.61	1	1	17.2	72.6
12	22	171	7.77	0	1	18.1	61.0
10	28	151	5.39	0	1	38.9	39.4

Yeah, that's not good. So yes, I'm backing Sanchez and the Eagles in prime time. And yes, of course I'm putting in a buttfumble gif, because why not? 

This Week: 0-1 (D'oh!)
Last Week: 10-3 (.769)
2014 Season: 71-62-1 (.534)

NFL Picks, Week 10 - Thursday Night Edition

This week's NFL TV maps: 506sports

• The "national" late afternoon game is New York Giants at Seattle, on FOX.  
• Tonight's game is, again, solely on the NFL Network. Unfortunately, Phil Simms is still mangling calling the game.

CINCINNATI (-6.5) over Cleveland

Let's play fast facts:

• In each of the last 2 weeks, the Browns have managed (as a team), less than 2 yards per carry (1.6 ypc in week 8 and 1.8 ypc in week 9). 
• The Browns won both of those games.
• They were playing the Raiders and the Buccaneers. 
• Those two teams have a combined record of 1-15. 
• The Bengals are 5-2-1. 
• The Bengals don't defend the run particularly well (4.8 ypc against). 
• They do defend the pass well (6.2 ypa against). 
• A.J. Green will play tonight. 

In short, both teams will likely have to be pretty one-dimensional on offense tonight. The team with the better passing attack will win this game. Andy Dalton will spend the night throwing to A.J. Green and Mohammed Sanu. Brian Hoyer may spend the night throwing to Taylor Gabriel, a completely washed-up Miles Austin, and Travis Benjamin. Advantage: Bengals. 

The Bengals are the home team. Advantage: Bengals. 

And, if you believe in emotional lifts, Bengals defensive lineman Devon Still's daughter will be at the game tonight. Advantage: Bengals. 

2014 Midweek Picks: 7-2