NFL Picks, Week 8

Home teams in CAPS.

Washington (+3) over "CINCINNATI"
The Bengals are in quotes because this game is being played in England. And honestly, I'm not sure what to make of either team. The Bengals seem a notch below where they have been for the last couple of seasons (they have had a serious assistant coaching brain drain and they've lost all of their receivers minus AJ Green, so it's not altogether surprising), while the Redskins haven't fallen off despite no one knowing just how good Kirk Cousins actually is. The Bengals have consistently put down the bad teams placed in front of them, and they've lost to the decent and good teams they've played. Washington appears to be a decent team, so I'll take the points.

Green Bay (+3) over ATLANTA
The Falcons started off 3-1, and many wrote them off in advance of their back to back trips to Denver and Seattle. After throttling Denver and giving Seattle everything they could handle, many jumped aboard the bandwagon (especially with Carolina providing a vacuum in the division). Then they came home, jumped out to a big lead on the Chargers...and blew the game. This is all a roundabout way of saying that the Falcons are an inconsistent team. Now, so are the Packers, but I'll go with the better quarterback when the teams are the proverbial box of chocolates.

HOUSTON (-2.5) over Detroit
People are pretty down on the Texans, and with good reason. They have been offensively incompetent in all 3 of their losses, and they've looked really ugly on that side of the ball in all 3 of their prime-time games so far (including 2 of the losses). But look at who they've lost to: New England (6-1), Minnesota (5-1), and Denver (5-2). Those are good teams. Now the Lions aren't the joke they've been for years, but they certainly aren't on that level. Houston has taken care of teams outside the top 6-7 in the league, and they'll do so again this week.

Seattle (-2.5) over NEW ORLEANS
This game makes me nervous. Not because New Orleans is a good team (they're offense is good, but the defense is atrocious), but because Seattle's defense was on the field for almost 100 plays over 5 full quarters last Sunday night. There's going to be some fallout this week, especially against this high-powered offense. If Seattle has offensive struggles again, it will get dicey. But Seattle should be able to move the ball at will (look at their games against San Francisco and the Jets), and should be able to squeak out of the Big Easy with a win.

New England (-6) over BUFFALO
Tom Brady is back. LeSean McCoy is almost certainly out. This one won't be close.

CLEVELAND (+3) over New York Jets
There have been 50 seasons in the Super Bowl era. Only twice has a team failed to win a game: the expansion Buccaneers in 1976, and the Lions in 2008. It's hard to go 0-for the season. As rough as the Browns' season has been, they have been competitive despite a revolving door at quarterback. They have Josh McCown back, and the Jets aren't good. I'm assuming the Browns will get at least one win this season, and this is their best chance to do it.

Oakland (PICK 'EM) over TAMPA BAY
The Buccaneers have beaten the Falcons in week 1, the Panthers without Cam Newton, and the 49ers. I know their record says 3-3, but they're not a good team.

Kansas City (-3) over INDIANAPOLIS
Kansas City beats bad and decent teams like clockwork, and they fall short against elite teams because their quarterback is limited. Indy is far from an elite team. They'll put up points, because the Chiefs pass rush isn't what it has been (get back soon Justin Houston), but their offense will run all over the Colts, just like everyone else.

DENVER (-4.5) over San Diego
I'm trusting in the Denver defense at home, and I'm trusting that Trevor Siemian will look appreciably better than he did two and a half weeks ago in a Thursday night loss to these Chargers when he was coming off of his shoulder injury. But make no mistake, the CHargers are a good team(that struggles to finish games) and are dangerous to most of the good teams in the AFC.

CAROLINA (-3) over Arizona
I'm making this pick for two reasons: Arizona is just as beat up as Seattle from the prime time tie last week, and Arizona's passing game has had sufficient struggles this season that I don't believe Carolina's secondary problems will completely sink the Panthers.

Philadelphia (+4.5) over DALLAS
This feels like the game where a rabid defense makes Dak Prescott look like a rookie and kickstarts the "Tony Romo is getting his job back" talk.

Minnesota (-5.5) over CHICAGO
When asked if he believes head coach John Fox has faith in him, Jay Cutler (correctly) replied, 'I guess he doesn't really have a choice." These are your 2016 Chicago Bears.


This week: 1-0 (Whoo-hoo!)
Last week: 7-7-1 (.500)
Season: 45-57-5 (.444)

NFL Picks, Week 8 - Thursday Night Edition

THIS WEEK'S NFL TV MAPS: 506SPORTS

The majority of the country (in terms of map coverage, not necessarily number of households) will see 

New England at Buffalo (CBS, 1 PM)

Seattle at New Orleans  (FOX, 1:00 PM) 

Green Bay at Atlanta (FOX, 4:25PM)

The entire country will see 

Jacksonville at Tennessee (NFLN, 8:30 *Thursday*)

Washington "at" Cincinnati (FOX, 9:30 AM) 

Philadelphia at Dallas (NBC, 8:30)

Minnesota at Chicago (ESPN, 8:30 *Monday*)

TENNESSEE (-3) over Jacksonville

CBS and NBC punted on this game. Vegas has punted on this game (just have the home team give the 3 points and be done with it). I will likely punt on this game. There will probably be lots of punts in this game. You should punt on this game. 

But I'll still defend my pick. If you look back at my power rankings, you probably won't be that surprised to find Jacksonville sitting all the way at the bottom. You might be surprised to find Tennessee all the way up at 12th, between the 2 Pennsylvania teams. How is that possible? Well the Titans run the ball well (4.9 ypc) and defend the run well (3.9ypc). They do a slightly better job of creating explosive plays than allowing them (35 vs 31), and their 3rd down differential is +8.4%, good for 3rd in the league. 

Jacksonville defends well (better than average at defending the run, pass, and limiting explosives. But while the Titans have at least some sort of balance to their team, the Jaguars' putrid offense pulls the whole team down with it, including the better-than-average defense. 

Let's go to the (just now introduced) Thursday Night pick table:

Jacksonville Jaguars		Criteria	Tennessee Titans
+3		Vegas Line	X	-3
-25.51		Team Strength	X	6.40
Not in Jacksonville		Home Field	X	In Tennessee
	-	Coaching Matchup	-
THE PICK:				TENNESSEE (-3)

NFL Power Poll, Week 7

Rank	Team	Record	Score	Last Score	Difference
1	New England Patriots	6-1	20.56	17.21	3.35
2	Green Bay Packers	4-2	19.47	14.32	5.15
3	Arizona Cardinals	3-3-1	17.86	15.95	1.91
4	Minnesota Vikings	5-1	17.48	20.50	-3.03
5	Dallas Cowboys	5-1	14.91	14.91	0.00
6	Denver Broncos	5-2	11.78	9.52	2.26
7	Buffalo Bills	4-3	10.68	19.53	-8.85
8	Atlanta Falcons	4-3	8.99	10.39	-1.40
9	Seattle Seahawks	4-1-1	8.99	17.62	-8.63
10	San Diego Chargers	3-4	8.92	9.64	-0.71
11	Philadelphia Eagles	4-2	7.06	9.74	-2.67
12	Tennessee Titans	3-4	6.40	4.96	1.44
13	Pittsburgh Steelers	4-3	5.43	13.28	-7.85
14	New Orleans Saints	2-4	3.80	2.97	0.83
15	Miami Dolphins	3-4	3.76	-2.76	6.52
16	Washington Redskins	4-3	0.65	-2.90	3.55
17	Oakland Raiders	5-2	0.24	-5.31	5.55
18	Baltimore Ravens	3-4	-0.43	5.21	-5.64
19	Kansas City Chiefs	4-2	-0.82	0.60	-1.43
20	Tampa Bay Buccaneers	3-3	-1.86	-8.72	6.86
21	Houston Texans	4-3	-3.17	0.26	-3.43
22	Carolina Panthers	1-5	-6.43	-6.43	0.00
23	Detroit Lions	4-3	-6.57	-4.45	-2.11
24	Cincinnati Bengals	3-4	-7.38	-12.94	5.56
25	Indianapolis Colts	3-4	-7.56	-5.45	-2.11
26	Los Angeles Rams	3-4	-10.41	-13.91	3.50
27	New York Giants	4-3	-10.79	-11.32	0.53
28	New York Jets	2-5	-11.22	-20.13	8.90
29	Chicago Bears	1-6	-14.53	-9.21	-5.31
30	Cleveland Browns	0-7	-19.12	-17.61	-1.51
31	San Francisco 49ers	1-6	-22.92	-21.45	-1.47
32	Jacksonville Jaguars	2-4	-25.51	-24.60	-0.90

Biggest 1 week risers: 
1. New York Jets (+8.90)

2. Tampa Bay (+6.86)

3. Miami (+6.52)

Biggest 1 week fallers: 

1. Buffalo  (-8.85)

2. Seattle (-8.63)

3. Pittsburgh (-7.85)

The Forumla: 

I have very slightly tweaked my formula from last season. It remains broken down into four parts: 

Part 1: Yards per play. 

Here I take each teams yards per carry (rushing) and yards per attempt (passing) numbers and subtract from them the YPC and YPA their defense allows.  The theory being that, if Team A's offense is better per play than what their opponent's offense can muster against Team A's defense, Team A should be consistently better than their opponents over a full game's worth of plays (60 to 70 per game approximately). 

This part of the formula is unchanged from last year's model. 

Part 2: Toxic Differential
A better yards per play differential is helpful to a team's chances of winning, but just how often is an NFL team able to consistently drive down the field taking 5-8 yards at a time? You're essentially asking an NFL offense to put together 10-12 plays without more than 1-2 negative plays, be they incompletions, sacks, no-gainers, or worse: turnovers. It's doable, but it's really hard to do with any sort of consistency in a single game.

This is why coaches harp on turnovers so much. A turnover a) takes away an opponent's possession which decreases their chances of scoring more points, and b) can give your team a shorter field so you don't have to put together an 80+ yard drive to get points of your own. The problem with turnovers is you can't count on them. So much of what goes into a turnover is dependent on a) the other team and b) luck that relying on turnovers is a dangerous proposition.

So yes, turnovers are important. But there's something else that can make getting points in a drive much easier: big plays. If my offense can get 20 or 30 yards in a single play, that cuts out 4-6 plays of grinding, or 4-6 plays where something could go wrong. Now my offense only has to put 5-6 plays together on a drive where they also get a chunk play.

Brian Billick is credited with coming up with the toxic differential statistic. This adds your takeaways and big plays generated by your offense and subtracts your giveaways and the big plays given up by your defense. Again, the theory goes that teams with a better toxic differential will be better at turning drives into points and games into wins. Pete Carroll also bases his offensive and defensive identity around turnovers and big plays being the most important indicators for both sides of the ball.

Note: For this formula, a big play is considered a rushing play of 10+ yards or a passing play of 25+ yards.

I have tweaked the weight of this portion of the model again. In Year 1, this part was weighed too heavily. Last year I went too far the other way. This year I hope I have found some middle ground. 

Part 3: 3rd Down Efficiency
While turnovers and chunk plays make moving the ball down the field much easier, it is possible to crawl your way to points with long, sustained drives. However, you can't have a long, sustained drive without converting 3rd downs. If you're not hitting for explosive plays, you had better convert some 3rd downs, otherwise your drive will end in a punt, instead of points. 

This part of the formula is unchanged from last year's model. 

Part 4: Points Per Drive
What's the most important job of an NFL team? Score more points than your opponent. Rather than look simple points per game differential, I wanted to dig a little deeper and normalize the data a little further. Game-to-game the number of possessions can vary based on team tempo, weather coniditons, etc. So instead I looked at points per drive data for each team's offense and defense, and multiplied the difference by 10. Why 10? A typical NFL game has 12 possessions, but 1-2 of those come at a point where a team isn't really interested in scoring (maybe they get the ball with 12 seconds to go before halftime, or they get it with 3 minutes to go in the game up 14+ points already. 10 seemed like a good number of possessions per game where the end goal is to score points.

This part of the formula is unchanged from last year's model.