Thursday, October 27, 2016

NFL Picks, Week 8 - Thursday Night Edition


The majority of the country (in terms of map coverage, not necessarily number of households) will see 
New England at Buffalo (CBS, 1 PM)
Seattle at New Orleans  (FOX, 1:00 PM) 
Green Bay at Atlanta (FOX, 4:25PM)

The entire country will see 
Jacksonville at Tennessee (NFLN, 8:30 *Thursday*)
Washington "at" Cincinnati (FOX, 9:30 AM) 
Philadelphia at Dallas (NBC, 8:30)
Minnesota at Chicago (ESPN, 8:30 *Monday*)

TENNESSEE (-3) over Jacksonville
CBS and NBC punted on this game. Vegas has punted on this game (just have the home team give the 3 points and be done with it). I will likely punt on this game. There will probably be lots of punts in this game. You should punt on this game. 

But I'll still defend my pick. If you look back at my power rankings, you probably won't be that surprised to find Jacksonville sitting all the way at the bottom. You might be surprised to find Tennessee all the way up at 12th, between the 2 Pennsylvania teams. How is that possible? Well the Titans run the ball well (4.9 ypc) and defend the run well (3.9ypc). They do a slightly better job of creating explosive plays than allowing them (35 vs 31), and their 3rd down differential is +8.4%, good for 3rd in the league. 

Jacksonville defends well (better than average at defending the run, pass, and limiting explosives. But while the Titans have at least some sort of balance to their team, the Jaguars' putrid offense pulls the whole team down with it, including the better-than-average defense. 

Let's go to the (just now introduced) Thursday Night pick table:

Jacksonville Jaguars
Tennessee Titans

Vegas Line

Team Strength
Not in Jacksonville 

Home Field
In Tennessee 
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Coaching Matchup

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