Friday, December 2, 2016

NFL Picks, Week 13


The majority of the country (in terms of map coverage, not necessarily number of households) will see 
Houston at Green Bay (CBS, 1 PM)
Los Angeles at New England  (FOX, 1:00 PM) 
New York Giants at Pittsburgh (FOX, 4:25PM)

The entire country will see 
Carolina at Seattle (NBC, 8:30)
Indianapolis at New York Jets (ESPN, 8:30 *Monday*)

Home teams in CAPS.

Denver (-3.5) over JACKSONVILLE
This game got significantly more interesting with today's news that Trevor Siemian will not play and rookie Paxton Lynch will. Against most opponents this would be enough to give me pause in picking Denver, even with them needing to win to get back into the playoff picture. Jacksonville is not most teams. 

Kansas City (+5.5) over ATLANTA
Yes Atlanta is good. But so is Kansas City. I think last week showed that the Chiefs' loss to Tampa said more about Tampa than it did about Kansas City. And while Atlanta does have a very good offense, their defense isn't very good. And Kansas City has one of the great neutralizers: a great pass rush. Give me the Chiefs to keep pressure on the Raiders ahead of them.

GREEN BAY (-6.5) over Houston
Brock Osweiler is not taking that Texans team into Lambeau and coming out with a win. I don't care if Aaron Rodgers has his mojo back or if last week was just a blip on the radar, Green Bay is winning this game and it won't be particularly close.

Philadelphia (+1.5) over CINCINNATI
When you're dealing with a matchup of mediocre (or worse teams), and there's one unit (or quarterback) that simply stands out well above everyone else on the field, go with the team that has that unit (or quarterback). In this game, that unit is Philadelphia's defense.

NEW ORLEANS (-6) over Detroit
Basically, any year where the Saints don't field an historically bad defense, they are an incredibly tough out at home. I don't think the Lions are good enough (mostly they're not consistent enough) to pull off the upset in that environment.

San Francisco (PICK 'EM) over CHICAGO
Look at the quarterbacks. San Francisco has a resurgent Colin Kaepernick (decent). The Bears have Matt Barkley (BAD! BAD! RED ALERT!!!) Advantage: 49ers.

Los Angeles (+13.5) over NEW ENGLAND
The spread is just a little too high for me with Gronk out, and pretty much every other skill position on offense banged up for the Patriots (including Brady). The Rams won't put up a lot of points but they will get yards against this Patriots defense, and there's nothing Jeff Fisher loves more than driving down the field and kicking a field goal. Add in the ferocious Rams defense and this feels like a game where the Patriots are always in control, but never pull away.

BALTIMORE (-3.5) over Miami
These two teams look pretty similar to me. Great defense, very good running game, question marks at quarterback and receiver. Tannehill is probably playing better than Flacco right now, but I trust Baltimore's defense more than Miami's. With the game in Baltimore, that's enough for me to pick the Ravens.

OAKLAND (-3) over Buffalo
I don't think Buffalo's defense can do enough to slow down the Oakland offense to pull this game off on the road. I'd expect it to go like the Seattle Monday night game, where Buffalo falls a couple of plays short in the end.

Tampa Bay (+3.5) over SAN DIEGO
Tampa Bay has put a couple of impressive victories back to back (over Kansas City and Seattle). Their problem is a lack of consistency (both drive-to-drive and game-to-game), not an uncommon problem for a young team. San Diego is absolutely good enough to punish them for it (especially in a road game) but the Chargers are just as inconsistent (which is why their record is what it is, they've blown a ton of leads in the 4th quarter.

Washington (+2.5) over ARIZONA
I am officially done with the Cardinals against good teams this season.

PITTSBURGH (-6) over New York Giants
I buy into Pittsburgh's offense more than I buy into anything on the Giants' side. Yes they're 8-3 and they're riding a 6-game winning streak, but a) they haven't been that impressive during that 6-game streak, and b) the only above .500 team they've beaten in that stretch is Baltimore, who's 6-5.

Carolina (+7) over SEATTLE
Believe me, I want to believe that Seattle is going to make a statement on Sunday night. But last week's debacle against Tampa Bay does have me worried. I believe they will rebound and come out with a win, but their games against Carolina are always hard. I don't see this year's being any different. 

Indianapolis (-2) over NEW YORK JETS
The Jets put everything they had left into the New England game last week. They're just playing out the string now. 

This week: 0-1 (D'oh!)
Last week: 8-7-1 (.531)
Season: 84-84-8 (.500)

No comments:

Post a Comment