Thursday, November 12, 2015

NFL Picks, Week 10 - Thursday Night Edition

This week's NFL TV maps: 506sports

The majority of the country (in terms of map coverage, not necessarily number of households) will see 
Cleveland at Pittsburgh (CBS, 1 PM)
Detroit at Green Bay (FOX, 1 PM)
New England at New York Giants and Kansas City at Denver essentially split the country (CBS, 4:25 PM)

The entire country will see 
Arizona at Seattle (NBC, 8:30)
Houston at Concinnati (ESPN, 8:30 *Monday*)

Note, all times above are Eastern. 

Buffalo (+2) over NEW YORK JETS
I'm violating my Thursday Night Rule with this pick. These teams aren't appreciably different (Buffalo is certainly not appreciably better), and New York is the home team on a short week. My power poll has the Jets as the better team (5th best versus 11th best). 

So why am I picking the Bills? 

I believe the Bills (when they're not being quarterbacked by EJ Manuel) have a better sense of who they are than the Jets right now. The Jets started the season on fire defensively. In their last 4 games though? They've given up 26.8 points per game. That makes them the Baltimore Ravens defense (25th in the league) over the last 4 games. That's not good. did they just play great offenses? They did play the Patriots...but their other three games were against the Redskins, Raiders, and Jaguars. This defense isn't the same defense from the first month of the season, when they gave up 13.8 points per game. 

The other reason I'm picking the Bills? They have the better quarterback. Tyrod Taylor has been good, he's simply struggled to stay healthy. In the 6 games Taylor has started, the Bills have outscored their opponents by an average of 6 points per game (26.2 vs 20.3). The only game Taylor started that the defense gave up more than 17 points? Week 2 versus New England. Add in Fitzgerald's torn ligament in his non-throwing hand, and I have more worries about the Jets offense vs Buffalo's defense than I do the other way around. 

2015 Midweek Games: 4-4-1

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