NFL Picks, Week 11

When I was little, I’d always read the NFL picks column in the Boston Globe. I’m not sure why I attached any importance to these columns, but I’d usually get bent out of shape when I saw them picking against the Seahawks (not only were they never that great while I was growing up, they were awful against the spread). As I got older and the internet began cannibalizing newspapers, I’d get my NFL picks reading fix from Bill Simmons on espn.com. Finally, I figured, why not give it a shot? So, in the 11th week of the 2011 NFL season, I begin my quest to not totally embarrass myself.

Home teams in CAPS:

GREEN BAY (-14) over Tampa Bay
Aaron Rodgers is putting up 30 points in his sleep. Tampa Bay really hasn’t ever gotten going this season. Their first New Orleans game was a big win for them, but last year’s team was 10-6 and just missed the playoffs. This year’s team is running in place. In my fantasy draft, my wife picked Joe Flacco as her QB. I immediately made faces, having had Flacco as my fantasy QB the previous season (and weathered the trip between decent and terrible week-to-week). I advised her to get a second QB quickly. That was good advice. I then tossed out Josh Freeman’s name. Not such a good call. It’s like double Flacco. No one likes double Flacco, even Mrs. Flacco.

Carolina (+7) over DETROIT
I don’t think Detroit is a fraud, but I’m worried about how they’ve stumbled after their 5-0 start. Stafford has a broken finger, and was horribly inaccurate against the Bears. Unfortunately, Detroit can’t run the ball at all, so it’s all on Stafford. Also a problem, Detroit has trouble with teams who run the ball at them a bunch, and I can’t imagine Carolina not trying that with Williams and Stewart. I think Carolina keeps it close, and adds a late score to cover, but not threaten the Lions.

Jacksonville (+1) over CLEVELAND
I watched more of the Seattle-Cleveland debacle than was healthy for me. Cleveland is a terrible team. Seattle was worse that day, but if they could have run the ball at all, they would have won. All Jacksonville can do is run and play defense. There’s no danger of Cleveland running out to a big lead and forcing Gabbert to play catch-up, and if allowed to play their conservative game plan, Jacksonville actually does that pretty well. The only sure thing, you don’t want to watch this game. Even looking at the play-by-play may be hazardous to your health.

Oakland (PK) over Minnesota
I’m not really sure I want to buy into the Carson Palmer experience, but Oakland cannot afford to lose this game, given the schedule they have coming up. Thus year, when Oakland’s needed a win, they’ve usually gotten it.

Buffalo (+2) over MIAMI
Yes, Miami has shown admirable guts these last two weeks (are you watching, Indy?), but this is a terrible matchup for them. Buffalo is reeling after starting 4-1, but Miami is very vulnerable to Buffalo’s spread-em out and chuck it game. As long as Ryan Fitzpatrick can shake off the rough patch and not have a 3-4 INT game, Buffalo will stay relevant for at least another week.

Dallas (-7) WASHINGTON
Since it’s a home game, the Redskins should hold the following promotion at halftime: Mike Shanahan has to stand at midfield, and a Washington quarterback gets to stand 15 yards away and attempt to hit him with a football. However, Shanahan gets to decide which QB gets to attempt the throw, and then the other quarterback gets to start for the rest of the season. Would Shanahan choose the Sex Cannon, where he’s have a 75% chance of blacking out from the pain and a 25% chance of getting away scott-free, or would he choose Beck, where he’d have a 95% chance of getting hit, and a 15% chance of actually feeling the hit? That pretty much sums up Washington’s season.

Cincinnati (+7) over BALTIMORE
Oh boy, that’s a tough line. Good Baltimore would make mincemeat of a rookie quarterback, and Good Flacco would put up a 250 yard, 1-2 TD day against a Cincinnati defense keying on Ray Rice. Bad Baltimore wouldn’t let Rice get more than 15 touches, and instead let Flacco sling it 45 times, completing maybe 25 of those. Good Baltimore wins by 17. Bad Baltimore probably loses this one. Given Cincinatti’s hex over Baltimore the last 2 seasons (3-1), I’m guessing bad Baltimore shows up again, and CIncy wins outright.

BYE (-12) over Indianapolis
I know, I know, this line is way too low.

SAN FRANCISCO (-9.5) over Arizona
A team that can’t run versus a rush defense that has allowed 0 rushing touchdowns on the season. Oh yeah, and John Skelton will be quarterbacking the Cardinals too. Larry Fitzgerald will get his catches, but it won’t be nearly enough.

Seattle (+3) over ST. LOUIS
The last time the Seahawks had an impressive victory, they followed it up with the ugly 6-3 loss in Cleveland. I just don’t see an encore here (and I’m a terrific pessimist when it comes to the Seahawks). Seattle can’t defend the pass, but St. Louis can’t throw it. St. Louis has Steven Jackson, but Seattle has a very good run defense. Seattle can’t throw either, but the Rams might actually be worse at defending the pass than the Seahawks. It won’t be pretty, but Seattle will come out of this one with a win thanks to Marshawn Lynch. Beastquake!

ATLANTA (-6) over Tennessee
I trust Atlanta’s offense over Tennessee’s with Chris Johnson stuck in neutral and Matt Hasselbeck having no one to throw to.

CHICAGO (-3.5) over San Diego
Yes, Chicago has looked outstanding the last two weeks. I’m a little concerned that some of that is who they were playing: Philly is clearly not who we thought they were, and Detroit isn’t as good as their 5-0 start would have you believe. Not to say Chicago’s D isn’t good, but they may not be world-beaters. In the past few seasons, that distinction might have mattered, as back then San Diego was a truly good offense. They would have given up 3 touchdowns to Devin Hester, but their offense would have put up points. This year? Well, they won’t give up more than 1 touchdown to Hester. And they won’t fare much better than Philly or Detroit against this defense.

Philadelphia (+6) over NY GIANTS
Philadelphia needs to go 7-0 to make the playoffs. I don’t think they get there, but I do think they come out fighting with their backs against the wall. That’s enough this week. I’m assuming Vick plays, but like I said, Philly must win this game, plus their next 6. Vince Young isn’t getting that done.

NEW ENGLAND (-15) over Kansas City
Two words: Tyler Palko. I don’t care how bad the Patriots pass defense is, they can contain Tyler Palko.

This week: 0-1