Tuesday, November 8, 2011

NFC Playoff Picture, Week 9





























































































































NFC Playoff Picture
RkTeamWLTPctDivConf
1Green Bay8001.0002-06-0
2San Francisco710.8751-05-1
3New York Giants620.7501-13-2
4New Orleans630.6672-13-3
5Detroit620.7502-04-2
6Chicago530.6251-25-3
-Atlanta530.6251-14-3
-Dallas440.5001-14-2
-Tampa Bay440.5002-13-4
-Philadelphia350.3752-13-4
-Washington350.3751-23-4


Lots of teams look like powerhouses when you take a look at the NFC Playoff Picture, but look a little closer, and cracks start to appear.

Green Bay has no defense. San Francisco still starts Alex Smith at quarterback (though their ability to go to the eastern time zone and get wins is impressive). The Giants are still maddeningly inconsistent (they lost to Seattle at home, yeah, that Seattle team, starting Tarvaris Jackson at quarterback). New Orleans lost to the Rams. Detroit can't run or stop the run (less important than anyone over 50 would have you believe, but they are really bad at both. And Chicago's OLine is (cue Charles Barkley) TURRRRR-IBLE, just TURRRR-IBLE.

When any of these teams are on, they look legitimately unbeatable. But each has an obvious weakness that could easily trip them up in the single game elimination that is the NFL playoffs.

If you're looking for the next Green Bay (the 2010 version, the one that is flirting with missing the postseason altogether but no one wants to see them make it), right now I'd look hard at Atlanta. Julio Jones is finally making everyone look at that draft day trade a little more closely, and the offense is finding its rhythm. It won't be anything like the Green Bay offense when it gets untracked, but unlike last year, where Atlanta was simply consistent, and wore down teams on their way to the #1 seed, this year they look capable of playing B+/A- ball, instead of solid B ball. Not as well equipped for the 16 game season, but better able to ride a hot streak through the postseason.

Key games this week:
New Orleans at Atlanta - Which Saints team shows up? The one that lost to Tampa and the Rams? Or the one that ran up 40+ on Houston and 60+ on the Whiteflags...err, the Colts. If Atlanta can get out to a lead off the bat, they will give the Saints serious problems with their running game and ability to keep the defense honest through the air.
New York Giants at San Francisco - This smells like a classic Giants letdown game. They just had a huge comeback win over the Patriots, and they have to be feeling pretty good about themselves. That's usually the time when they get complacent and submit a stinker. Two things may save them: 1) It's an away game (they seem less likely to take a game for granted away from home, and 2) The 49ers are 7-1, which should get the G-men's attention.
Detroit at Chicago - No idea what to make of this game. Detroit was riding high the last time these two teams played. In the midst of their undefeated start and first Motown MNF game in 26 years (give or take, I don't feel like looking it up). Now they're still 6-2, but the momentum is gone. The Bears are riding the wave now. Either Detroit has patched the holes in its run defense, or I see the Bears winning easy, and some shreds of panic starting to creep into the minds of the Detroit faithful.

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