Wednesday, January 11, 2017

Wild Card Round

Texans 27, Raiders 14

Team
Oakland Raiders
Houston Texans
Record
12-4
5th
AWAY
9-7
4th
HOME
Record vs Playoff Teams
1-3
10
+3.5
2-3
8
-3.5
Reg. Season
Rank
WC Game
Reg. Season
Rank
WC Game
Efficiency Statistics
Total
1.04
17
-17.34
-5.33
26
17.34
Rush YPC
4.4
10
3.0
4.1
18
2.8
Def YPC
4.5
27
2.8
4.0
14
3.0
Pass YPA
6.9
20
3.1
5.9
32
6.7
Def YPA
7.6
32
6.7
6.2
4
3.1
Total
-0.8
28
-3.4
-0.2
25
3.4
Takeaways
30
2
0
17
27
3
Giveaways
14
4
3
24
19
0
Big Plays For
77
15
3
65
26
5
Big Plays Vs
79
22
5
67
8
3
Differential
14
7
-5
-9
22
5
Points Scored
2.14
13
0.93
1.51
29
1.69
Points Allowed
2.03
16
1.69
1.77
8
0.93
Differential
0.11
14
-0.75
-0.26
26
0.75
3rd Down/ Red Zone
3rd Down For
38.1%
17
12.50%
37.3%
22
26.67%
3rd Down Against
39.4%
16
26.67%
38.5%
11
12.50%
3D Differential
-0.013
21
-14.17%
-0.012
20
14.17%
Red Zone For
57.14%
14
100.00%
40.91%
31
100.00%
Red Zone Against
57.89%
24
100.00%
52.27%
8
100.00%
DVOA
Offense
12.20%
7
3.20%
-21.40%
30
-20.30%
Defense
4.90%
23
2.00%
-6.90%
7
-12.70%
Special Teams
1.10%
11
1.30%
-7.00%
32
-7.00%
Total
8.40%
11
5.30%
-21.50%
29
-18.20%
Weighted Total
5.30%
13
2.50%
-17.70%
27
-14.60%

Look, it was always going to be a tall order to ask the Raiders to go on the road and get a win (even over the Texans) with their rookie third string quarterback making his first start of the season. Forget Connor Cook's ability, the third string quarterback simply gets no reps (heck, the second string QB tends to get almost no reps during the season). Why? I'll let former Colts offensive coordinator Tom Moore explain:




And he's right. There's not enough practice time (or enough bodies), to let more than one quarterback get significant reps during the season. So you fight like hell to keep your QB1 healthy, and spend each game crossing your fingers he emerges without significant injury.

That being said, the Raiders did not do their young quarterback any favors. Sure, Cook wasn't great, but he gave about the best you could have expected of him, and he got no help from his supporting cast. The offensive line (admitted;y down their starting left tackle) couldn't keep the Houston pass rush at bay (a tall task, but one the proclaimed best OL in the league should have has a chance at), and his receivers dropped ball after ball, especially Amari Cooper, who seems to study at the DeMariyus Thomas school of shrinking in big moments. Without a terrific performance from the rest of the offense, Oakland was sunk, and they didn't get anywhere near that kind of performance.

As for Houston, no their offensive problems aren't solved, and no Brock Osweiler hasn't emerged a new quarterback after his benching. 6.7 yards per attempt isn't good (unless it's being compared to 3.1 yards per attempt, which is putrid), and Houston clearly game-planned around their quarterback, especially once they got a lead. And 2.8 yards per carry against Oakland's defense is really bad. This is still a sacrificial lamb for the Patriots.

Seahawks 26, Lions 6

Team
Detroit Lions
Seattle Seahawks
Record
9-7
6th
AWAY
10-5-1
3rd
HOME
Record vs Playoff Teams
0-5
12
+8
3-1
2
-8
Reg. Season
Rank
WC Game
Reg. Season
Rank
WC Game
Efficiency Statistics
Total
-4.81
25
-29.84
5.73
9
29.84
Rush YPC
3.7
27
3.3
3.9
25
4.7
Def YPC
4.4
23
4.7
3.4
1
3.3
Pass YPA
7.3
14
5.7
7.8
5
7.0
Def YPA
7.2
25
7.0
6.7
16
5.7
Total
-0.6
27
-2.7
1.6
4
2.7
Takeaways
14
29
0
19
22
0
Giveaways
15
5
0
18
11
0
Big Plays For
64
27
3
77
15
7
Big Plays Vs
72
14
7
68
10
3
Differential
-9
22
-4
10
9
4
Points Scored
2.22
10
0.67
1.91
19
2.60
Points Allowed
2.22
22
2.60
1.59
4
0.67
Differential
0.00
19
-1.93
0.32
6
1.93
3rd Down/ Red Zone
3rd Down For
42.6%
8
18.18%
38.2%
16
56.25%
3rd Down Against
45.5%
31
56.25%
38.7%
12
18.18%
3D Differential
-2.90%
27
-38.07%
-0.50%
16
38.07%
Red Zone For
54.17%
17
0.00%
46.43%
27
75.00%
Red Zone Against
67.92%
30
75.00%
56.52%
20
0.00%
DVOA
Offense
-1.00%
15
-3.80%
-2.70%
17
-2.50%
Defense
20.40%
32
16.10%
-10.90%
5
-7.00%
Special Teams
3.70%
6
3.00%
0.50%
13
0.50%
Total
-17.70%
27
-17.60%
8.70%
9
10.60%
Weighted Total
-19.30%
29
-16.90%
4.70%
14
5.00%

In continuing a theme established earlier on Saturday, the visiting team came in with a quarterback at less than his best (this time due to his finger tendon injury), and instead of rising up to support him the supporting cast around him collapsed. So. Many. Drops. So. Many Penalties. Heck, Anquan Boldin, usually a very solid and rise-to-the-moment veteran ended up with 2 personal foul penalties on the night. Once again, a mostly young, new-to-the-playoffs team, seemed to get overwhelmed by the moment.

Seattle's running game looked superb, but Russell Wilson looked off all night. His accuracy was certainly off for most of the night, so the fact that Seattle ended up with a comfortable win could be a good sign for this team. However, unlike Stafford's receivers, Wilson's rose up to support their quarterback with numerous ridiculous catches, many with one hand and one with the reciever's butt.

While you can explain away the running game success with "it was just Detroit", it's worth noting that the Falcons have an even worse rushing defense by most metrics. So while Seattle's defense is going to face a much stiffer test this week, their offense may very well be able to continue what they've stated.

 Steelers 30, Dolphins 12

Team
Miami Dolphins
Pittsburgh Steelers
Record
10-6
6th
AWAY
11-5
3rd
HOME
Record vs Playoff Teams
1-3
10
+10
2-3
8
-10

Reg. Season
Rank
WC Game
Reg. Season
Rank
WC Game
Efficiency Statistics
Total
1.09
16
-25.49
7.43
6
25.49
Rush YPC
4.5
8
2.5
4.3
15
5.1
Def YPC
4.8
31
5.1
4.3
18
2.5
Pass YPA
7.8
7
7.0
7.3
13
10.4
Def YPA
6.6
13
10.4
6.6
14
7.0
Total
0.9
8
-6.1
0.7
11
6.1
Takeaways
25
11
2
23
15
3
Giveaways
23
17
3
18
11
2
Big Plays For
89
5
4
88
7
7
Big Plays Vs
91
29
7
70
11
4
Differential
0
16
-4
23
5
4
Points Scored
1.93
17
1.20
2.19
12
2.73
Points Allowed
1.96
14
2.73
1.85
12
1.20
Differential
-0.03
21
-1.53
0.34
5
1.53
3rd Down/ Red Zone
3rd Down For
36.7%
25
42.86%
41.1%
12
44.44%
3rd Down Against
36.2%
4
44.44%
41.1%
23
42.86%
3D Differential
0.005
12
-1.59%
0.000
15
1.59%
Red Zone For
55.32%
15
50.00%
59.18%
12
66.67%
Red Zone Against
56.86%
21
66.67%
45.61%
4
50.00%
DVOA
Offense
0.90%
14
0.40%
11.10%
8
12.70%
Defense
1.50%
19
5.90%
-4.70%
11
-12.10%
Special Teams
1.00%
12
1.70%
0.00%
16
-0.90%
Total
0.40%
17
-1.90%
15.80%
5
17.50%
Weighted Total
4.20%
16
-3.80%
20.00%
3
23.90%

This time, the supporting cast again laid down around their backup quarterback, but the biggest culprit was the defense. The Steelers' offense is formidable, but letting Antonio Brown run through your secondary for two long touchdowns on the first two drives isn't a valid path to winning with Matt Moore at quarterback. This game felt very much like the Patriots game win week 17: Miami went down early, fought their way back to get close but then suffered a back-breaking turnover to essentially end things early.

Meanwhile, somehow Pittsburgh got Roethlisberger hurt on a pass attempt late in a game where he only threw the ball 18 times total, which doesn't help their chances of going into Kansas City and getting a result. While Roethlisberger won't be at his best, LeVeon Bell appears to be peaking at the perfect time (Pittsburgh hasn't had Bell in their last couple of playoff games). Pittsburgh rushed for over 5 yards per attempt!
Packers 38, Giants 13

Team
New York Giants
Green Bay Packers
Record
11-5
5th
AWAY
10-6
4th
HOME
Record vs Playoff Teams
3-2
4
+4.5
5-2
3
-4.5

Reg. Season
Rank
WC Game
Reg. Season
Rank
WC Game
Efficiency Statistics
Total
1.94
15
-18.04
10.43
5
18.04
Rush YPC
3.5
30
4.1
4.5
7
3.0
Def YPC
3.6
3
3.0
4.0
13
4.1
Pass YPA
6.7
24
6.7
7.2
16
8.3
Def YPA
6.4
8
8.3
7.5
31
6.7
Total
0.2
19
-0.5
0.2
20
0.5
Takeaways
25
12
0
25
13
2
Giveaways
27
24
2
17
8
0
Big Plays For
61
28
6
84
9
4
Big Plays Vs
61
3
4
72
14
6
Differential
-2
18
0
20
6
0
Points Scored
1.61
27
1.00
2.45
3
2.71
Points Allowed
1.44
2
2.71
2.26
25
1.00
Differential
0.17
10
-1.71
0.19
9
1.71
3rd Down/ Red Zone
3rd Down For
35.6%
28
31.25%
46.7%
2
35.71%
3rd Down Against
35.3%
3
35.71%
41.2%
24
31.25%
3D Differential
0.30%
13
-4.46%
5.50%
4
4.46%
Red Zone For
53.49%
19
0.00%
60.61%
10
75.00%
Red Zone Against
39.53%
1
75.00%
62.22%
28
0.00%
DVOA
Offense
-6.40%
22
-9.80%
16.40%
4
26.30%
Defense
-15.00%
2
-16.50%
2.40%
20
6.00%
Special Teams
0.20%
15
1.00%
-1.80%
20
-0.20%
Total
8.80%
10
4.90%
12.20%
7
15.90%
Weighted Total
13.10%
6
7.70%
12.90%
7
20.10%

This was the one somewhat competitive game of the weekend, which lasted 2.5 quarters, but it ended up with the largest margin of victory of the four games. For one half (well, 28 minutes of one half), the Giants executed their game plan perfectly. They got pressure on Rodgers without giving him escape routes to extend the play, and his receivers were struggling to get open against the Giants' coverage.

Then Dominique Rodgers-Cromartie went down, and all of a sudden receivers were getting open and Rodgers was hitting them. Then he settled in, and started buying time in the pocket (sometimes as much as 7-8 seconds), and Green Bay's offense was officially untracked. Meanwhile the Giants offense was just as unreliable as it was all season, both in the early going (where they really needed more than 6 points to put pressure on the Packers) and the late going (when they needed to keep pace with Rodgers and wilted instead).
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