Wednesday, January 11, 2017

NFL Draft Picture, Wild Card Round

2016 NFL Draft Order
Rank
Team
W
L
T
Pct
Conference
Division
SOV
SOS
1
Cleveland Browns
1
15
0
0.063
0.083
0.000
0.313
0.549
2
San Francisco 49ers
2
14
0
0.125
0.167
0.333
0.250
0.500
3
Chicago Bears
2
14
0
0.125
0.167
0.333
0.531
0.521
4
Jacksonville Jaguars
3
13
0
0.188
0.167
0.333
0.396
0.523
5
Los Angeles Rams
4
12
0
0.250
0.250
0.333
0.500
0.504
6
New York Jets
5
11
0
0.313
0.333
0.333
0.313
0.518
7
San Diego Chargers
5
11
0
0.313
0.333
0.167
0.513
0.543
8
Carolina Panthers
6
10
0
0.375
0.417
0.167
0.354
0.518
9
Cincinnati Bengals
6
9
1
0.406
0.417
0.500
0.349
0.521
10
Buffalo Bills
7
9
0
0.438
0.333
0.167
0.339
0.482
11
New Orleans Saints
7
9
0
0.438
0.500
0.333
0.393
0.523
12
Philadelphia Eagles
7
9
0
0.438
0.417
0.333
0.509
0.555
13
Arizona Cardinals
7
8
1
0.469
0.542
0.750
0.385
0.463
14*
Minnesota Vikings
8
8
0
0.500
0.417
0.333
0.449
0.484
15*
Indianapolis Colts
8
8
0
0.500
0.417
0.500
0.398
0.488
16
Baltimore Ravens
8
8
0
0.500
0.583
0.667
0.363
0.498
17
Washington Redskins
8
7
1
0.531
0.500
0.500
0.421
0.512
18
Tennessee Titans
9
7
0
0.563
0.500
0.333
0.451
0.461
19
Tampa Bay Buccaneers
9
7
0
0.563
0.583
0.667
0.427
0.488
20
Denver Broncos
9
7
0
0.563
0.500
0.333
0.455
0.549
21
Detroit Lions
9
7
0
0.563
0.583
0.500
0.385
0.467
22
Miami Dolphins
10
6
0
0.625
0.583
0.667
0.341
0.455
23
New York Giants
11
5
0
0.688
0.667
0.667
0.449
0.482
24
Oakland Raiders
12
4
0
0.750
0.750
0.500
0.443
0.504
25
Houston Texans
9
7
0
0.563
0.583
0.833
0.420
0.498
26
Green Bay Packers
10
6
0
0.625
0.667
0.833
0.441
0.500
27
Seattle Seahawks
10
5
1
0.656
0.542
0.583
0.427
0.441
28
Atlanta Falcons
11
5
0
0.688
0.750
0.833
0.452
0.480
29
Pittsburgh Steelers
11
5
0
0.688
0.750
0.833
0.423
0.494
30
Kansas City Chiefs
12
4
0
0.750
0.750
1.000
0.479
0.508
31
Dallas Cowboys
13
3
0
0.813
0.750
0.500
0.435
0.467
32
New England Patriots
14
2
0
0.875
0.917
0.833
0.424
0.439


The first tiebreaker for draft position is strength of schedule (lower SOS gets the higher pick in round 1).
After SOS, the next tie-breakers are conference record and division record. After that it comes down to a coin flip.

Notes: 
  • The draft order has been updated to reflect the results of the wild card round. Slots 1-24 are currently set,except for slots 14 and 15. Minnesota and Indianapolis finished tied in strength of schedule and a coin will be flipped to determine who picks 14th and who picks 15th. I believe my SOS numbers aren't accounting for ties properly, explaining the discrepancy. . 
  • Draft slots 25-28 will go to the losers of the divisional round. Slots 29 and 30 will go to the losers of the Conference Championship Games. Slot 31 will go to the loser of the Super Bowl and slot 32 will go to the Super Bowl Champion. 
  • The Los Angeles slot is owned by Tennesse, based on last year's trade up for Jared Goff. 
  • The Philadelphia Eagles slot is owned by Cleveland, based on last year's trade up for Carson Wentz.
  • The Minnesota slot is owned by Philadelphia, based on the Sam Bradford trade. 

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