NFL Picks, Wild Card Round

Home teams in CAPS.

Oakland at HOUSTON (-3.5)

	Team	Oakland Raiders		Houston Texans
	Record	12-4	5th	9-7	4th
	Record vs Playoff Teams	1-3	10	2-3	8
		Reg. Season	Rank	Reg. Season	Rank
Efficiency Statistics	Total	1.04	17	-5.33	26
	Rush YPC	4.4	10	4.1	18
	Def YPC	4.5	27	4.0	14
	Pass YPA	6.9	20	5.9	32
	Def YPA	7.6	32	6.2	4
	Total	-0.8	28	-0.2	25
	Takeaways	30	2	17	27
	Giveaways	14	4	24	19
	Big Plays For	77	15	65	26
	Big Plays Vs	79	22	67	8
	Differential	14	7	-9	22
	Points Scored	2.14	13	1.51	29
	Points Allowed	2.03	16	1.77	8
	Differential	0.11	14	-0.26	26
3rd Down/ Red Zone	3rd Down For	38.1%	17	37.3%	22
	3rd Down Against	39.4%	16	38.5%	11
	3D Differential	-0.013	21	-0.012	20
	Red Zone For	57.14%	14	40.91%	31
	Red Zone Against	57.89%	24	52.27%	8
DVOA	Offense	12.20%	7	-21.40%	30
	Defense	4.90%	23	-6.90%	7
	Special Teams	1.10%	11	-7.00%	32
	Total	8.40%	11	-21.50%	29
	Weighted Total	5.30%	13	-17.70%	27

The first game of the playoffs also doubles as the worst game of the playoffs (as is the case pretty much every year now). It also may be the most Ryan Lindley game of all time. Houston is back to Brock Osweiler again after savior new-starter Tom Savage grabbed the starting job in week 15, only to suffer a concussion in week 17 and be ruled out for tomorrow's game. Oakland is now down to their third string quarterback, Connor Cook, as both Derek Carr and Matt McGloin are out with injuries.

By the numbers above, this looks like a clear win for Oakland, except that pretty much all of those numbers came with Derek Carr under center. And the Raiders were a very offensive-leaning team. The defense has Khalil Mack, and a very good pass rush, but that's about it. Of course, Houston's offense seems incapable of taking advantage of the Raiders' weak defense, so perhaps this is a moot point.

This game really comes down to taking the known bad quarterback with a weak offense and strong defense, or the complete unknown quarterback with the strong offense and weak defense. To boil it down even further, this game comes down to whether Osweiler can avoid turnovers. These two teams are pretty even in yards per play differential and big play differential, but the Raiders are much better at both generating and preventing turnovers.

It's hard to like either option, but I'm going to take the Texans, as they have a full season's wortth of work to know how to put Osweiler in the best possible position to be successful, while Oakland is scrambling to figure out how best to use Cook.

The pick: Texans 19, Raiders 13 (HOUSTON -3.5)

Detroit at SEATTLE (-8)

	Team	Detroit Lions		Seattle Seahawks
	Record	9-7	6th	10-5-1	3rd
	Record vs Playoff Teams	0-5	12	3-1	2
		Reg. Season	Rank	Reg. Season	Rank
Efficiency Statistics	Total	-4.81	25	5.73	9
	Rush YPC	3.7	27	3.9	25
	Def YPC	4.4	23	3.4	1
	Pass YPA	7.3	14	7.8	5
	Def YPA	7.2	25	6.7	16
	Total	-0.6	27	1.6	4
	Takeaways	14	29	19	22
	Giveaways	15	5	18	11
	Big Plays For	64	27	77	15
	Big Plays Vs	72	14	68	10
	Differential	-9	22	10	9
	Points Scored	2.22	10	1.91	19
	Points Allowed	2.22	22	1.59	4
	Differential	0.00	19	0.32	6
3rd Down/ Red Zone	3rd Down For	42.6%	8	38.2%	16
	3rd Down Against	45.5%	31	38.7%	12
	3D Differential	-2.90%	27	-0.50%	16
	Red Zone For	54.17%	17	46.43%	27
	Red Zone Against	67.92%	30	56.52%	20
DVOA	Offense	-1.00%	15	-2.70%	17
	Defense	20.40%	32	-10.90%	5
	Special Teams	3.70%	6	0.50%	13
	Total	-17.70%	27	8.70%	9
	Weighted Total	-19.30%	29	4.70%	14

On paper the line of Seattle -8 looks very justified. The Lions have been propped up by their ability to stay on the field for long sustained drives, and some great play and luck in the 4th quarter of close games. Detroit trailed in the 4th quarter of 15 out of their 16 games and they made the playoffs! They also were 0-5 against playoff teams and ended the season on a 3-game skid. Oh, and Matt Stafford hurt his finger a month ago and hasn't been the same since. Plus, Seattle has never lost their first playoff game under Carroll in 5 tries. Easy Seattle pick, right?

Well, no. The Seahawks are at home, and they are much tougher there, but while Seattle didn't lose their final three games, they did finish 3-3, and they haven't looked impressive since their Sunday night demolition of the Panthers. The Seahawks' mainstay strength of recent years, their pass defense, is unrecognizable without Earl Thomas, and you might as well shake a magic 8-ball each week to try and figure out if that unit will show up. Is that enough to doom them against the Lions? No. But it does mean that I don't trust them to cover an 8-point spread against anyone in the playoff field.

The pick: Seahawks 27, Lions 20 (Detroit +8) 


Miami at PITTSBURGH (-10)

	Team	Miami Dolphins		Pittsburgh Steelers
	Record	10-6	6th	11-5	3rd
	Record vs Playoff Teams	1-3	10	2-3	8
		Reg. Season	Rank	Reg. Season	Rank
Efficiency Statistics	Total	1.09	16	7.43	6
	Rush YPC	4.5	8	4.3	15
	Def YPC	4.8	31	4.3	18
	Pass YPA	7.8	7	7.3	13
	Def YPA	6.6	13	6.6	14
	Total	0.9	8	0.7	11
	Takeaways	25	11	23	15
	Giveaways	23	17	18	11
	Big Plays For	89	5	88	7
	Big Plays Vs	91	29	70	11
	Differential	0	16	23	5
	Points Scored	1.93	17	2.19	12
	Points Allowed	1.96	14	1.85	12
	Differential	-0.03	21	0.34	5
3rd Down/ Red Zone	3rd Down For	36.7%	25	41.1%	12
	3rd Down Against	36.2%	4	41.1%	23
	3D Differential	0.005	12	0.000	15
	Red Zone For	55.32%	15	59.18%	12
	Red Zone Against	56.86%	21	45.61%	4
DVOA	Offense	0.90%	14	11.10%	8
	Defense	1.50%	19	-4.70%	11
	Special Teams	1.00%	12	0.00%	16
	Total	0.40%	17	15.80%	5
	Weighted Total	4.20%	16	20.00%	3

This is another game that looks like a clear winner for the favorite at first glance. Pittsburgh is the better team, though the Dolphins stomped the Steelers earlier in the season 30-15. In that game, Dolphins running back Jay Ajayi romped for over 200 yards and Ben Roethlisberger threw multiple interceptions. Unfortunately, both of the interceptors are out of this game with injury, as is starting cornerback Byron Maxwell. Oh, and the Dolphins are down to their backup quarterback too, Matt Moore. Moore isn't your typical no-hoper backup (he has 14 wins in his NFL career and a better than .500 winning percentage), but he is a backup.

The biggest red flag for me for the Dolphins' chances is their YPC against. They give up 4.8 yards per carry to opposing running games, 2nd-worst in the NFL. And they're playing the Steelers with LeVeon Bell, perhaps the best back in the game.

That being said, I don't think Pittsburgh runs away with this one, and it's mostly because of Roethlisberger. He hasn't had a bad year, but he hasn't put many full games together.

The pick: Steelers 26, Dolphins 19 (Miami +10)

New York Giants at GREEN BAY (-4.5)

	Team	New York Giants		Green Bay Packers
	Record	11-5	5th	10-6	4th
	Record vs Playoff Teams	3-2	4	5-2	3
		Reg. Season	Rank	Reg. Season	Rank
Efficiency Statistics	Total	1.94	15	10.43	5
	Rush YPC	3.5	30	4.5	7
	Def YPC	3.6	3	4.0	13
	Pass YPA	6.7	24	7.2	16
	Def YPA	6.4	8	7.5	31
	Total	0.2	19	0.2	20
	Takeaways	25	12	25	13
	Giveaways	27	24	17	8
	Big Plays For	61	28	84	9
	Big Plays Vs	61	3	72	14
	Differential	-2	18	20	6
	Points Scored	1.61	27	2.45	3
	Points Allowed	1.44	2	2.26	25
	Differential	0.17	10	0.19	9
3rd Down/ Red Zone	3rd Down For	35.6%	28	46.7%	2
	3rd Down Against	35.3%	3	41.2%	24
	3D Differential	0.30%	13	5.50%	4
	Red Zone For	53.49%	19	60.61%	10
	Red Zone Against	39.53%	1	62.22%	28
DVOA	Offense	-6.40%	22	16.40%	4
	Defense	-15.00%	2	2.40%	20
	Special Teams	0.20%	15	-1.80%	20
	Total	8.80%	10	12.20%	7
	Weighted Total	13.10%	6	12.90%	7

I'm not going to lie, I have high hopes for this game. Aaron Rodgers has rediscovered his mojo and is back to dicing up defenses. The Giants have one of the top defenses in the league. And it will be freezing in Wisconsin on Sunday late afternoon, which should help out the Giants defense.

As tends to happen, that will put pressure on the other units, each of which has some substantial holes in it. The Giants offense is not good, and is almost entirely dependent on Odell Beckham Jr. to make plays. The Packers defense is pretty woeful versus the pass.

Do you pick against the red-hot Aaron Rodgers? Or do you pick against Eli Manning and the resurgent defense? For me, the weather is tipping the scales.

The pick: Giants 23, Packers 21 (New York +4.5)

2015 Postseason: 5-5-1 (.500)
2014 Postseason: 6-5 (.545)

2013 Postseason: 4-5-2 (.455)

2012 Postseason: 6-4-1 (.591)
2011 Postseason: 6-5 (.545)

2016 Season: 122-125-9 (.494)
2016 Midweek Picks: 11-7 (.611)