Divisional Round

Falcons 36, Seahawks 20

	Team	Seattle Seahawks			Atlanta Falcons
	Record	10-5-1	3rd	AWAY	11-5	2nd	HOME
		3-1	2	+4.5	2-2	7	-4.5
		Reg. Season	Rank	WC Game	Reg. Season	Rank	WC Game
Efficiency Statistics	Total	5.73	9	-14.86	15.08	3	14.86
	Rush YPC	3.9	25	4.8	4.6	4	3.4
	Def YPC	3.4	1	3.4	4.5	25	4.8
	Pass YPA	7.8	5	6.9	9.2	1	8.7
	Def YPA	6.7	16	8.7	6.5	11	6.9
	Total	1.6	4	-0.4	2.8	1	0.4
	Takeaways	19	22	0	22	16	2
	Giveaways	18	11	2	11	1	0
	Big Plays For	77	15	8	93	3	4
	Big Plays Vs	68	10	4	75	19	8
	Differential	10	9	2	29	3	-2
	Points Scored	1.91	19	2.00	3.09	1	3.60
	Points Allowed	1.59	4	3.60	2.31	29	2.00
	Differential	0.32	6	-1.60	0.78	2	1.60
3rd Down/ Red Zone	3rd Down For	38.2%	16	45.45%	42.1%	11	50.00%
	3rd Down Against	38.7%	12	50.00%	41.8%	26	45.45%
	3D Differential	-0.50%	16	-4.55%	0.30%	13	4.55%
	Red Zone For	46.43%	27	33.33%	61.90%	9	57.14%
	Red Zone Against	56.52%	20	57.14%	72.73%	32	33.33%
DVOA	Offense	-2.70%	17	-5.00%	25.30%	1	29.40%
	Defense	-10.90%	5	-5.00%	8.10%	27	4.00%
	Special Teams	0.50%	13	1.90%	2.40%	8	-0.30%
	Total	8.70%	9	8.30%	19.60%	3	21.30%
	Weighted Total	4.70%	14	1.90%	19.80%	4	25.10%

The 2012 and 2015 Seahawk playoff seasons both went the same way for me: Seattle entered wild card weekend a road favorite, endured a hard-fought game to emerge with a win, and my confidence was pretty high entering the divisional round. Despite Seattle advancing to play the #1 overall seed in the NFC both years, I felt good about their chances to win and went into the game with at least some level of expectations. The games played out rather differently, as Seattle was outscored a combined 51-0 in the first half of those two games.

This year was different. Seattle opened the playoffs at home, blew out their opponent, and...it didn't move the needle much for me. You see, in both 2012 and 2015, Seattle showed a clear upward trajectory over the second half of those seasons. They were clearly getting better and peaking at the right time. Until they ran into a couple of buzzsaws. This year's team ended the year 3-3 including 2 losses to non-playoff teams. There was nothing to suggest this team was peaking. Even the Lions game was within a score until the 4th quarter.

And then Seattle took the opening kickoff and marched 80+ yards down the field in over 8 minutes for a touchdown. And I perked up. Not only did they not start out horribly, they started the game almost perfectly. Sure Atlanta answered with their own touchdown, but Seattle's defense was never going to dominate that offense, if Seattle's offense could keep up, anything could happen.

Then Seattle got a field goal and forced an Atlanta punt, and the skies looked ever brighter for this team. And then the reanimated corpse of Devin Hester took that punt back over 70 yards to set up a 1st and goal and I started to believe. Then I saw it.

Flag.

Crap, that's coming back...I wonder where it was thrown

The announcer indicates the flag is back by the original line of scrimmage.

Wait, maybe it's on Atlanta then? Maybe this isn't awful

Nope. On Seattle. Egregious hold on Kevin Pierre-Louis. 84 yard swing of field position. Two plays later, Seattle's backup guard stepped on Russell Wilson's foot, tripping him into his own end zone where he was touched for a safety. Atlanta scored a field goal on the ensuing drive, and Seattle's offense shriveled up for most of the rest of the game.

A couple more notes:
- Russell looked much better as a runner all game, but he continued to be off throwing the ball. I'm chalking it up to the injuries he dealt with all season, but he was substantially less accurate on his throws this season, especially his deep shots.
- Pete Carroll approached this game all wrong from a coaching perspective. He was way too conservative, considering how poorly his defense was playing. He needed to play more like David in David vs Goliath. He needed to engage in more high variance behavior, like going for it on 4th and 1 with about 4 minutes to go in the first half, instead of kicking it away to Atlanta. They downed that punt at the 1 yard line, and less than 4 minutes later the Falcons had scored to extend their lead to 19-10. It was never close after that.

That all being said, all of this simply delayed the inevitable that day. Matt Ryan came to play, as did his supporting cast. The Falcons deservedly move on to the NFC Championship Game.

Patriots 34, Texans 16

	Team	Houston Texans			New England Patriots
	Record	9-7	4th	AWAY	14-2	1st	HOME
		2-3	8	+16	4-1	1	-16
		Reg. Season	Rank	WC Game	Reg. Season	Rank	WC Game
Efficiency Statistics	Total	-5.33	26	-19.87	26.53	1	19.87
	Rush YPC	4.1	18	4.5	3.9	24	3.6
	Def YPC	4.0	14	3.6	3.9	10	4.5
	Pass YPA	5.9	32	4.5	8.1	3	7.3
	Def YPA	6.2	4	7.3	6.4	6	4.5
	Total	-0.2	25	-1.9	1.7	3	1.9
	Takeaways	17	27	3	23	14	3
	Giveaways	24	19	3	11	1	3
	Big Plays For	65	26	2	85	8	7
	Big Plays Vs	67	8	7	59	2	2
	Differential	-9	22	-5	38	2	5
	Points Scored	1.51	29	1.00	2.44	4	2.13
	Points Allowed	1.77	8	2.13	1.39	1	1.00
	Differential	-0.26	26	-1.13	1.05	1	1.13
3rd Down/ Red Zone	3rd Down For	37.3%	22	18.75%	45.8%	4	35.71%
	3rd Down Against	38.5%	11	35.71%	36.9%	7	18.75%
	3D Differential	-0.012	20	-16.96%	0.089	3	16.96%
	Red Zone For	40.91%	31	33.33%	63.33%	8	75.00%
	Red Zone Against	52.27%	8	75.00%	52.27%	9	33.33%
DVOA	Offense	-21.40%	30	-22.00%	21.10%	2	22.50%
	Defense	-6.90%	7	-17.00%	-1.50%	16	-9.50%
	Special Teams	-7.00%	32	-5.90%	2.70%	7	6.10%
	Total	-21.50%	29	-18.00%	25.30%	1	27.60%
	Weighted Total	-17.70%	27	-10.90%	34.00%	1	38.10%

The Texans have 25 million reasons to have Brock Osweiler on their roster next season. That's his cap hit if they release him, $6 million more than if they keep him. After this season, and that game, I'm not convinced they shouldn't rip that bandage off anyway. He was that bad. Houston's defense did absolutely everything they needed to do to make this a game. This shouldn't have been a game. The Patriots are so much better than the Texans. But Houston held them to 17 first half points and snagged 2 turnovers. The Texans had every chance to pull ahead and put pressure on the Patriots at home. And Osweiler couldn't get them there. And what's more, it never felt like he could. As close as this game was, it never felt like the Patriots were ever in any danger to lose this game. And that's a sad state of affairs for Houston.

It wasn't all on Osweiler. The running game never materialized as the consistent threat most expected it to be, and the Texans really only have one pass catcher worth a damn, but Osweiler never lifted his supporting cast up to make them more than the some of their parts. Will he get another chance next year? I think he will, but he shouldn't.

Packers 34, Cowboys 31

	Team	Green Bay Packers			Dallas Cowboys
	Record	10-6	4th	AWAY	13-3	1st	HOME
		5-2	3	+4.5	3-2	4	-4.5
		Reg. Season	Rank	WC Game	Reg. Season	Rank	WC Game
Efficiency Statistics	Total	10.43	5	4.87	17.18	2	-4.87
	Rush YPC	4.5	7	5.1	4.8	3	5.8
	Def YPC	4.0	13	5.8	3.9	8	5.1
	Pass YPA	7.2	16	7.6	7.9	4	7.7
	Def YPA	7.5	31	7.7	6.6	12	7.6
	Total	0.2	20	-0.7	2.2	2	0.7
	Takeaways	25	13	1	20	19	1
	Giveaways	17	8	1	15	5	1
	Big Plays For	84	9	9	96	2	3
	Big Plays Vs	72	14	3	61	3	9
	Differential	20	6	6	40	1	-6
	Points Scored	2.45	3	3.40	2.43	5	3.44
	Points Allowed	2.26	25	3.44	1.82	11	3.40
	Differential	0.19	9	-0.04	0.61	3	0.04
3rd Down/ Red Zone	3rd Down For	46.7%	2	54.55%	42.3%	10	54.55%
	3rd Down Against	41.2%	24	54.55%	39.1%	15	54.55%
	3D Differential	5.50%	4	0.00%	3.20%	6	0.00%
	Red Zone For	60.61%	10	100.00%	66.67%	3	50.00%
	Red Zone Against	62.22%	28	50.00%	53.70%	14	100.00%
DVOA	Offense	16.40%	4	28.00%	20.40%	3	18.60%
	Defense	2.40%	20	7.00%	0.80%	17	0.60%
	Special Teams	-1.80%	20	1.00%	1.40%	10	4.10%
	Total	12.20%	7	16.40%	21.00%	2	20.70%
	Weighted Total	12.90%	7	22.00%	24.20%	2	22.10%

This game was a classic, and I'll argue it single-handedly made up for the 6 games that came before it. Green Bay did exactly what they needed to do to have a chance, jump on the Cowboys early and minimize the degree to which Dallas could rely on their running game.

The thing is, Dak Prescott figured it out, and he started bringing Dallas back. Rookies aren't supposed to be able to do this. Their effect on games is supposed to go down as the season continues, and by the playoffs it's usually up to the supporting cast to pick their rookie signal caller up now that teams have film on him. Not the case here, Prescott made the plays he needed to, and he brought Dallas back from 21-3 down to tie this game at 28.

The Rodgers drove down the field, but Dallas stiffened and forced Mason Crosby to hit a 50+ yard field goal. He did.

The Prescott picked right up where he left off, and drove the Cowboys into field goal range in just over a minute. It was a terrific drive, except for one error: the spike on first down. This isn't on Prescott, mind you, it's on Jason Garrett. With 40+ seconds left and a time out, there was no need to spike the ball. But most coaches approach the end of halves thinking they need to preserve clock at every opportunity.

 In most cases, they're right. But there's value in not leaving the hottest quarterback at the time more seconds than you have to. But they did, and Rodgers made them pay with one moment of sheer briliance in a 36 yard pass to tight end Jared Cook. That gave Crosby another shot at a 50+ yarder, and he hit it twice (because Dallas called the last second timeout for the first try).

Steelers 18, Chiefs 16

	Team	Pittsburgh Steelers			Kansas City Chiefs
	Record	11-5	3rd	AWAY	12-4	2nd	HOME
		2-3	8	+1.5	3-2	4	-1.5
		Reg. Season	Rank	WC Game	Reg. Season	Rank	WC Game
Efficiency Statistics	Total	7.43	6	11.49	0.97	18	-11.49
	Rush YPC	4.3	15	5.0	4.2	17	4.4
	Def YPC	4.3	18	4.4	4.4	21	5.0
	Pass YPA	7.3	13	7.0	7.2	17	4.9
	Def YPA	6.6	14	4.9	6.6	15	7.0
	Total	0.7	11	2.8	0.4	17	-2.8
	Takeaways	23	15	2	33	1	1
	Giveaways	18	11	1	17	8	2
	Big Plays For	88	7	6	70	21	1
	Big Plays Vs	70	11	1	79	22	6
	Differential	23	5	6	7	12	-6
	Points Scored	2.19	12	1.80	2.20	11	1.78
	Points Allowed	1.85	12	1.78	1.72	6	1.80
	Differential	0.34	5	0.02	0.48	4	-0.02
3rd Down/ Red Zone	3rd Down For	41.1%	12	46.67%	38.0%	18	22.22%
	3rd Down Against	41.1%	23	22.22%	43.2%	27	46.67%
	3D Differential	0.000	15	24.44%	-0.052	29	-24.44%
	Red Zone For	59.18%	12	0.00%	45.45%	30	100.00%
	Red Zone Against	45.61%	4	100.00%	49.06%	5	0.00%
DVOA	Offense	11.10%	8	12.60%	3.80%	13	5.90%
	Defense	-4.70%	11	-14.60%	-2.50%	14	-3.00%
	Special Teams	0.00%	16	-0.10%	7.60%	2	10.80%
	Total	15.80%	5	18.30%	13.90%	6	13.50%
	Weighted Total	20.00%	3	27.10%	18.70%	5	19.70%

The Steelers sure looked like the substantially better team for most of the night. They game planned brilliantly to take Tyreek Hill out of the game, and other than some creative play designs, the Chiefs struggled to move the ball for most of the night. Had Pittsburgh managed even one touchdown instead of always settling for field goals, Kansas City never would have had a chance. 

And for those of you upset at the holding call on KC's 2-point conversion, how can you be? He tackled James Harrison, it's a textbook foul. I get wanting to have the refs swallow their whistles, but if they're letting blatant stuff like that go, it's affecting the game at least as much as calling that foul.