NFL Picks, Conference Championships

Once again I apologize for the lack of tables, but the same computer issue reared its ugly head again. I also apologize for the brevity. Home teams in CAPS.

Green Bay at ATLANTA (-5.5)

As much as I don't want to bet against Rodgers, here are my reasons for backing Atlanta:
- Rodgers' 1st and 3rd receivers are banged up. And not just "everybody's hurt at this point of the season" banged up, Nelson has broken ribs and Adams has missed practices this week. I know Rodgers is a magician/alien, but even he needs some support.
- Atlanta's offense has been a wrecking crew. Notice I didn't say Matt Ryan (thought he's likely your 2016 MVP), but their entire offense. They have receivers other than Julio Jones, their offensive line is quite good, and they have 2 very good and very complementary running backs.
- The Atlanta running backs on Green Bay's linebackers is a colossal mismatch. Atlanta's offense vs Green Bay's defense is a pretty big mismatch, but I can't overstate this particular mismatch.
- Kyle Shanahan may be the best offensive mind int he league. Yes, possibly even over Josh McDaniels.
- Atlanta is at home in their dome.

The pick: Falcons 41, Packers 32 (ATLANTA -5.5)

Pittsburgh at NEW ENGLAND (-6)

It feels like Pittsburgh will be in this game because of LeVeon Bell, who is rushing the ball on another level from everyone right now. I know Belichick takes away the opposition's top weapon, but I just don't see Bell as take-away-able.

I also think Pittsburgh's defense will show much better than they did in the regular season meeting between these two clubs. I don't trust Pittsburgh's secondary, but I do trust their front seven to hold down the Patriots' running game, and I believe they will get to Tom Brady.

Will it be enough? No it won't, because Ben Roethlisberger hasn't been a good road quarterback in 3 years. He's been solidly mediocre on the road for awhile now. I can't explain it, but it's been going on too long to call it a fluke at this point. Heck, look at last week against the Chiefs. Bell ran roughshod over Kansas City, and Pittsburgh scored 0 touchdowns. Field goals won't get it done against the Patriots. Pittsburgh will cover, but New England will advance to the Super Bowl.

The pick: Patriots 26, Steelers 23 (Pittsburgh +6)

Last week: 3-1 
2016 Playoffs: 4-4

NFL Power Poll, Divisional Round

Rank	Team	Record	Score	Reg. Season Score	Playoff Score	Super Bowl	Conference	Divisional	Wild Card	Reg. Season Rank
1	New England Patriots	14-2	30.50	26.53	3.97			19.87		1
2	Atlanta Falcons	11-5	18.05	15.08	2.97			14.86		3
3	Dallas Cowboys	13-3	16.21	17.18	-0.97			-4.87		2
4	Green Bay Packers	10-6	13.21	10.43	2.78			4.87	18.04	5
5	Pittsburgh Steelers	11-5	12.27	7.43	4.85			11.49	25.49	6
6	Seattle Seahawks	10-5-1	5.74	5.73	0.01			-14.86	29.84	9
7	New York Giants	11-5	0.14	1.94	-1.80				-18.04	15
8	Oakland Raiders	12-4	-0.69	1.04	-1.73				-17.34	17
9	Kansas City Chiefs	12-4	-1.33	0.97	-2.30			-11.49		18
10	Miami Dolphins	10-6	-1.46	1.09	-2.55				-25.49	16
11	Houston Texans	9-7	-7.57	-5.33	-2.24			-19.87	17.34	26
12	Detroit Lions	9-7	-7.79	-4.81	-2.98				-29.84	25

The Forumla: 

I have very slightly tweaked my formula from last season. It remains broken down into four parts: 

Part 1: Yards per play. 

Here I take each teams yards per carry (rushing) and yards per attempt (passing) numbers and subtract from them the YPC and YPA their defense allows.  The theory being that, if Team A's offense is better per play than what their opponent's offense can muster against Team A's defense, Team A should be consistently better than their opponents over a full game's worth of plays (60 to 70 per game approximately). 

This part of the formula is unchanged from last year's model. 

Part 2: Toxic Differential
A better yards per play differential is helpful to a team's chances of winning, but just how often is an NFL team able to consistently drive down the field taking 5-8 yards at a time? You're essentially asking an NFL offense to put together 10-12 plays without more than 1-2 negative plays, be they incompletions, sacks, no-gainers, or worse: turnovers. It's doable, but it's really hard to do with any sort of consistency in a single game.

This is why coaches harp on turnovers so much. A turnover a) takes away an opponent's possession which decreases their chances of scoring more points, and b) can give your team a shorter field so you don't have to put together an 80+ yard drive to get points of your own. The problem with turnovers is you can't count on them. So much of what goes into a turnover is dependent on a) the other team and b) luck that relying on turnovers is a dangerous proposition.

So yes, turnovers are important. But there's something else that can make getting points in a drive much easier: big plays. If my offense can get 20 or 30 yards in a single play, that cuts out 4-6 plays of grinding, or 4-6 plays where something could go wrong. Now my offense only has to put 5-6 plays together on a drive where they also get a chunk play.

Brian Billick is credited with coming up with the toxic differential statistic. This adds your takeaways and big plays generated by your offense and subtracts your giveaways and the big plays given up by your defense. Again, the theory goes that teams with a better toxic differential will be better at turning drives into points and games into wins. Pete Carroll also bases his offensive and defensive identity around turnovers and big plays being the most important indicators for both sides of the ball.

Note: For this formula, a big play is considered a rushing play of 10+ yards or a passing play of 25+ yards.

I have tweaked the weight of this portion of the model again. In Year 1, this part was weighed too heavily. Last year I went too far the other way. This year I hope I have found some middle ground. 

Part 3: 3rd Down Efficiency
While turnovers and chunk plays make moving the ball down the field much easier, it is possible to crawl your way to points with long, sustained drives. However, you can't have a long, sustained drive without converting 3rd downs. If you're not hitting for explosive plays, you had better convert some 3rd downs, otherwise your drive will end in a punt, instead of points. 

This part of the formula is unchanged from last year's model. 

Part 4: Points Per Drive
What's the most important job of an NFL team? Score more points than your opponent. Rather than look simple points per game differential, I wanted to dig a little deeper and normalize the data a little further. Game-to-game the number of possessions can vary based on team tempo, weather coniditons, etc. So instead I looked at points per drive data for each team's offense and defense, and multiplied the difference by 10. Why 10? A typical NFL game has 12 possessions, but 1-2 of those come at a point where a team isn't really interested in scoring (maybe they get the ball with 12 seconds to go before halftime, or they get it with 3 minutes to go in the game up 14+ points already. 10 seemed like a good number of possessions per game where the end goal is to score points.

This part of the formula is unchanged from last year's model. 

NFL Draft Picture, Divisional Round

2016 NFL Draft Order
Rank	Team	W	L	T	Pct	Conference	Division	SOV	SOS
1	Cleveland Browns	1	15	0	0.063	0.083	0.000	0.313	0.549
2	San Francisco 49ers	2	14	0	0.125	0.167	0.333	0.250	0.500
3	Chicago Bears	2	14	0	0.125	0.167	0.333	0.531	0.521
4	Jacksonville Jaguars	3	13	0	0.188	0.167	0.333	0.396	0.523
5	Los Angeles Rams	4	12	0	0.250	0.250	0.333	0.500	0.504
6	New York Jets	5	11	0	0.313	0.333	0.333	0.313	0.518
7	San Diego Chargers	5	11	0	0.313	0.333	0.167	0.513	0.543
8	Carolina Panthers	6	10	0	0.375	0.417	0.167	0.354	0.518
9	Cincinnati Bengals	6	9	1	0.406	0.417	0.500	0.349	0.521
10	Buffalo Bills	7	9	0	0.438	0.333	0.167	0.339	0.482
11	New Orleans Saints	7	9	0	0.438	0.500	0.333	0.393	0.523
12	Philadelphia Eagles	7	9	0	0.438	0.417	0.333	0.509	0.555
13	Arizona Cardinals	7	8	1	0.469	0.542	0.750	0.385	0.463
14*	Minnesota Vikings	8	8	0	0.500	0.417	0.333	0.449	0.484
15*	Indianapolis Colts	8	8	0	0.500	0.417	0.500	0.398	0.488
16	Baltimore Ravens	8	8	0	0.500	0.583	0.667	0.363	0.498
17	Washington Redskins	8	7	1	0.531	0.500	0.500	0.421	0.512
18	Tennessee Titans	9	7	0	0.563	0.500	0.333	0.451	0.461
19	Tampa Bay Buccaneers	9	7	0	0.563	0.583	0.667	0.427	0.488
20	Denver Broncos	9	7	0	0.563	0.500	0.333	0.455	0.549
21	Detroit Lions	9	7	0	0.563	0.583	0.500	0.385	0.467
22	Miami Dolphins	10	6	0	0.625	0.583	0.667	0.341	0.455
23	New York Giants	11	5	0	0.688	0.667	0.667	0.449	0.482
24	Oakland Raiders	12	4	0	0.750	0.750	0.500	0.443	0.504
25	Houston Texans	9	7	0	0.563	0.583	0.833	0.420	0.498
26	Seattle Seahawks	10	5	1	0.656	0.542	0.583	0.427	0.441
27	Kansas City Chiefs	12	4	0	0.750	0.750	1.000	0.479	0.508
28	Dallas Cowboys	13	3	0	0.813	0.750	0.500	0.435	0.467
29	Green Bay Packers	10	6	0	0.625	0.667	0.833	0.441	0.500
30	Atlanta Falcons	11	5	0	0.688	0.750	0.833	0.452	0.480
31	Pittsburgh Steelers	11	5	0	0.688	0.750	0.833	0.423	0.494
32	New England Patriots	14	2	0	0.875	0.917	0.833	0.424	0.439

The first tiebreaker for draft position is strength of schedule (lower SOS gets the higher pick in round 1).

After SOS, the next tie-breakers are conference record and division record. After that it comes down to a coin flip.

Notes: 

• The draft order has been updated to reflect the results of the divisional round. Slots 1-28 are currently set, except for slots 14 and 15. Minnesota and Indianapolis finished tied in strength of schedule and a coin will be flipped to determine who picks 14th and who picks 15th. I believe my SOS numbers aren't accounting for ties properly, explaining the discrepancy. . 
• Draft slots 29 and 30 will go to the losers of the Conference Championship Games. Slot 31 will go to the loser of the Super Bowl and slot 32 will go to the Super Bowl Champion. 
• The Los Angeles slot is owned by Tennesse, based on last year's trade up for Jared Goff. 
• The Philadelphia Eagles slot is owned by Cleveland, based on last year's trade up for Carson Wentz.
• The Minnesota slot is owned by Philadelphia, based on the Sam Bradford trade.