NFL Picks, Week 12

Home team in CAPS.

byes: Buffalo, Cincinnati, Philadelphia, Seattle

Pittsburgh (+1) over CLEVELAND
Two teams that seem to be trending in opposite directions. I'll take the one trending upwards. 

Tampa Bay (+9.5) over DETROIT 
Tampa Bay has been playing very well the last 3 weeks. Detroit is still their usual uneven, undisciplined selves. Add in the Revis factor (even though Tampa still refuses to play him in man all the time) and Calvin should be somewhat neutralized (so maybe 7 catches for 110 yards and a score). Detroit wins, but not by 10+ points. 

Minnesota (+4.5) over GREEN BAY 
Upset special, Minnesota knocks off the Packers. I don't trust the Packers defense to make the Vikings one dimensional, so Christian Ponder should be less exposed. And I don't trust the Green Bay offense to run the ball effectively enough to make Scott Tolzien's life easier. 

KANSAS CITY (-5) over San Diego 
There may come a day (this season) when the visitor's courage at Arrowhead does not fail. There may come a day (this season) where a team walks into Kansas City and walks out with a victory. It will not be this Sunday. The Chargers are not that team. 

ST. LOUIS (Even) over Chicago 
The Bears defense is awful, which cancels out the Rams starting Kellen Clemens. Can Marc Trestman's offense carry this Bears team to a road win in St. Louis? Not with the St. Louis front 4 wreaking havoc on Josh McCown. If Robert Quinn and Chris Long show up on Sunday, the Rams will win. It says here that they show up. 

MIAMI (+4.5) over Carolina 
Even the best NFL teams cannot peak for 16 weeks. Look at New Orleans on Thursday night. Look at Seattle's two week stretch against St. Louis and Tampa Bay. Look at the last month-plus of the 2007 Patriots season, when AJ Feeley and Kyle Boller carved them up. Carolina is coming off of wins over the 49ers and Patriots, and they still have 2 games to go against the Saints. This is a classic trap game, expect lots of field goals. Carolina wins, but fails to cover. 

BALTIMORE (-4) over New York Jets 
Yeesh. I have to take either Geno Smith on the road, or Joe Flacco period. When Geno Smith goes on the road against anything approaching a competent defense (read: not the Falcons), the wheels completely come off. Baltimore has a competent defense, so expect 3+ Geno turnovers. 

HOUSTON (-10) over Jacksonville 
There should still be enough pride in Houston to cover this game against the Jaguars. 

Tennessee (Even) over OAKLAND
Tennessee has a better secondary than Houston does. Tennessee also isn't in the midst of an abject failure of a season. The Matt McGloin as the next feelgood NFL quarterback story ends this weekend. 

ARIZONA (-1) over Indianapolis 
Dynamic Arizona defense + slow as molasses Colts starts = Arizona winning comfortably at home. 

NEW YORK GIANTS (-2.5) over Dallas 
too many injuries for Dallas. They won't get enough pressure on Eli to force 3+ turnovers. 

Denver (-2.5) over NEW ENGLAND
I want to pick the Patriots here. They played well against the Panthers, and Peyton Manning won't make the Patriots pay at all with his legs. But the Patriots are just too banged up in the secondary to cover Thomas, Decker, and Welker for a full game. This one will be high scoring, and the Broncos don't settle for field goals as often.  

San Francisco (-5.5) over WASHINGTON
The 49ers don't have an NFL-level passing offense right now, but neither does Washington, really. And San Francisco is much better at everything else (running the ball, defense). 


This week: 0-1 (What's wrong with you, New Orleans?!?)
Last week: 4-8-3 (.367)
2013 season: 66-90-6 (.426)