NFL Picks, Week 13

INDIANAPOLIS (-4.5) over Tennessee
I just can't back Ryan Fitzpatrick on the road against a playoff team. I know the Colts are scuffling right now, but Tennessee just doesn't have quite enough to hang with the Colts for 60 minutes.

Denver (-5) over KANSAS CITY
At best Kansas City will be playing with one of their two rush linebackers this weekend, and he'll be hobbled. Kansas City didn't sniff pressure on Peyton Manning 2 weeks ago when both of them were in there. Let's just check one thing...

Okay, game time temperature will be above 32 degrees, Peyton will work this Sunday!

Jacksonville (+7) over CLEVELAND 
Two words: Brandon Weeden. Okay, maybe a few more words: Brandon Weeden looks set to start this game for the Browns. The Browns will get some offense just from Weeden chucking it up to Josh Gordron, but there won't be much in the way of scoring. Cleveland wins, but by less than a touchdown.

Tampa Bay (+8) over CAROLINA 
Carolina's offense isn't good enough to pull away from Tampa Bay. That's not intended as a dig at Carolina, Tampa's defense has plenty of talent on it. Panthers win, but fail to cover.

MINNESOTA (-1) over Chicago
Did you see what St. Louis did to the Bears' rush (lack of a) defense last week? They did that without an Adrian Peterson or a decent quarterback. Minnesota doesn't have a decent quarterback either, but they do have an Adrian Peterson.

Arizona (+3) PHILADELPHIA 
Philadelphia may be rolling offensively, but they haven't faced a halfway decent defense during their run (or really at all since the Chiefs in week 3). Arizona is a legitimate top-3 defense right now. I'm also not buying Philadelphia's defense has turned the corner into anything other than a below-average unit. Arizona wins this one outright.

Miami (+2) over NEW YORK JETS
I know the Jets win at home and lose on the road. But the Jets offense is regressing before our eyes, and Miami is actually playing fairly well under the shadow of hazing-gate.

BUFFALO (-3) over Atlanta
I think Buffalo is the better team right now. And no, I never dreamed I'd be saying that before this season started.

SAN FRANCISCO (-8.5) over St. Louis
St. Louis doesn't actually have an effective running game, it juts looked that way because the Bears haven't played defense in about a month. San Francisco will put the kibosh on the running game, and then it will be up to Kellen Clemens to win the game keep the game close make it through the game uninjured.

New England (-7.5) over HOUSTON
Normally, you'd worry about a letdown after that tremendous comeback last Sunday night, but Houston has completely imploded at this point.

Cincinnati (+1) over SAN DIEGO
The Bengals should be able to put up at least token resistance to San Diego's offense, unlike Kansas City last week.

NBC IS STUPID (-17) Everyone loves the NFC East
New York Giants (-1) WASHINGTON
Why on earth is didn't NBC flex someone else to the Sunday night slot?!? You can't tell me Philadelphia vs Arizona wasn't available. Anyway, Washington's tailspin seems more severe than the Giants' version.

SEATTLE (-5) over New Orleans
Seattle's home field advantage will be rocking for a prime time game, especially a showdown with the only other threat for the NFC's #1 seed. That, and Seattle's superior balance will win out in this battle of current NFC titans.

This week: 1-2 (Thank goodness for Pittsburgh's late cover)
Last week: 9-5 (.643)
2013 season: 75-95-6 (.443)

NFL Picks, Week 13 - Thanksgiving Edition

Green Bay (+6) over DETROIT 
Green Bay head coach Mike McCarthy has finally taken his head of of his...turkey, and decided to start Matt Flynn at quarterback for this game as Aaron Rodgers is still recuperating from his broken collarbone.

The last time Matt Flynn played the Lions, this happened.

Detroit's secondary isn't much better than it was then.

Detroit wins this game, thanks to their balance and Green Bay's equally horrid defense, but Flynn matches Stafford shot for shot, only for Stafford to drive his team for the winning field goal late in the 4th quarter.

Detroit wins 34-31. 

DALLAS (-9.5) over Oakland
Yes, the Dallas defense is hurt and playing well below par, but Oakland simply has no one who can cover Dez Bryant. So either Bryant will go off, or in trying to contain Bryant, Oakland will allow Jason Witten to catch something like 15 passes for 160 yards and take death by a thousand cuts instead of going up in a fiery inferno.

Dallas wins 30 - 13. 

Pittsburgh (+3) over BALTIMORE 
I can't take Baltimore's offense seriously right now, they're simply awful. Pittsburgh's defense can't handle good offenses, but Baltimore's unit is anything but. Realizing this, the Ravens offensive coordinator has thrown in some wildcat over the past couple weeks, using backup QB Tyrod Taylor for these plays. Joe Flacco didn't like this wrinkle, saying it makes the Ravens look like a "high school offense".

In fact, cameras caught Flacco's reaction on the field when the first wildcat play-call came in:


Pittsburgh wins 27 - 9

Happy Thanksgiving, everyone!

2013 Midweek Picks: 5-6-1

NFL Power Poll, Week 12

Since this is the last power poll before Thanksgiving, I thought I'd look at what each team in the NFL (and their fans) should be thankful for as they sit around the dinner table (or entertain us while we do).

For me, I'm very thankful for my family and friends, especially as they're my entire audience here. If you're lucky enough to share the holiday with yours, enjoy it. If not, think of them as you eat and watch football.

Rank (Last)	Team	Record	What Their Fans Are Thankful For
1 (1)		10-1	Umm, everything The rookie salary cap in the new CBA - The Seahawks have their franchise quarterback, and he's making peanuts. And thanks to the new CBA, they can't re-do his deal until the end of next season, enabling them to surround him with an abundance of talent.
2 (3)		9-2	Getting Sean Payton back - Drew Brees is clearly more comfortable this season, the team is more sure of its identity this season, and Payton sunstantially upgraded at defensive coordinator by going from Steve Spagnuolo to anyone Rob Ryan.
3 (5)		8-3	The Belichick/Brady combination - The comeback from down 24-0 at halftime last week just added to the legacy these two have put together.
4 (4)		8-3	Patience - A large reason for Carolina's surge this year is substantial improvement from a) Cam Newton and b) head coach Ron Rivera. Newton is balancing the run/pass game much better, and Rivera is no longer afraid to take risks. Giving the two a chance to grow has paid off hansomely for the Panthers.
5 (8)		7-4	Michael Crabtree comes back this week - Maybe the 49ers can approach a 19th century passing offense now.
6 (2)		9-2	Peyton Manning - Manning choosing the Broncos has them firmly in the AFC Elite. Of course, the fine print says any and all warantees are no good if Manning is used in environments where the ambient temperature drops below 32 degrees Farenheit.
7 (9)		7-4	Competent quarterbacking - That's the main difference between last season and this one in Arizona. Remember, last year's team was 5-11 thanks mostly to John Skelton and Ryan Lindley. Carson Palmer is a mammoth upgrade on those two.
8 (6)		9-2	Competent coaching - We knew last year's 2-14 train wreck of a team had talent, they sent 5 guys to the pro bowl (again, they were 2-14!!!) But to turn the ship around that quickly and start 9-0? That's a minor miracle.
9 (10)		7-4	The sorry state of the AFC North - Depsite some catastrophic injuries, the Bengals lead the rest of their division by 2 games.
10 (12)		6-5	Landing Chip Kelly - If he can make this kind of music with Nick Foles, imagine what he can do once he stocks the roster with his players too.
11 (7)		7-4	Picking the right year to bottom-out - You still have Andrew Luck, the hardest part of the rebuild is done, and you'll probably make the playoffs again this season.
12 (11)		6-5	Calvin Johnson - Never take the ability to watch greatness for granted.
13 (15)		6-5	Winning the right games - They have 6 wins total, and 4 have come against their NFC East brethren, which will come in handy for tie-breaking purposes.
14 (17)		5-5-1	Modern medicine - Aaron Rodgers will supposedly be back next week despite breaking his collarbone about a month ago.
15 (20)		5-6	Recent History - This year may not look very pretty, but this team has 3 Super Bowl appearances (and 2 wins) in the last decade.
16 (19)		5-6	The young defensive line - When they're right they can absolutely terrorize quaterbacks with their front four. In another division they would have a record that better showed this.
17 (13)		6-5	Marc Trestman - The first-year head coach is making Josh McCown look good, and Jay Cutler look expendable.
18 (23)		5-6	Quarterback whisperer Mike McCoy - In the last three seasons, McCoy has designed offenses around Tim Tebow, rusty Peyton Manning, and Philip Rivers, and been successful all three times.
19 (21)		5-6	Last season - A recent title can wash away a great deal of stink. That's good, because the current offense (behind $120 Million dollar man Joe Flacco) is rancid.
20 (16)		5-6	So you're saying there's a chance - Despite all of the problems they've encountered this season, they are tied (with half of the conference) for the final playoff spot in the AFC.
21 (24)		5-6	The pathetic state of the AFC - This team is in the playoffs as of today despite a 5-6 record and starting Ryan Fitzpatrick due to injury.
22 (18)		4-7	Being the only team to inspire fear in Belichick/Brady - What, you wanted me to pick something from this season? I don't have that kind of time.
23 (14)		5-6	At least Mark Sanchez is gone
24 (22)		4-7	The dumb Colts front office - The Browns will enter the 2014 Draft with a) 2 1st round picks, b) a clear understanding of what they have at quarterback (nothing), and c) Brandon Weeden will qualigy for social security payments, which may get them some cap relief. Sure one of those is made up, but the rest is true.
25 (27)		3-8	They won the Schiano/Freeman feud - Freeman has done nothing with Minnesota, and the Buccaneers are riding a very solid 4 game stretch. Either Schiano's turnign things around, or the Bucs can get rid of him and the next coach will have good talent to work with.
26 (25)		4-7	Mario Williams decided to play this season - The $100 Million man of the defense is looking almost worth the contract this season after being nothing but an albatross last season.
27 (28)		2-8-1	Adrian Peterson - See Johnson, Calvin above.
28 (26)		4-7	The amount of salary cap space they'll have this offseason - These last two seasons have been the Raiders finally taking their medicine and purging the roster of all of the bad contracts and deals Al Davis stuck them with. Starting this offseason, they can sign real players again.
29 (30)		3-8	The power of distraction - At least people aren't constantly talking about how the team name is racist anymore. Sure they're talking about how the quarterback hates the coach, the coach didn't really want the quarterback, the coach is going to be/should be fired, and how the quarterback's teammates won't help him up anymore, but still.
30 (31)		2-9	The chance to get JaDeveon Clowney - On a stars and scrubs team, getting their injured stars healthy and adding a dynamic force to their defensive line could easily have the Falcons back in the playoffs next season.
31 (32)		2-9	The cyclical nature of the NFL - After all, no team can stay down forever, right? Please be quiet, Cleveland.
32 (29)		2-9	The chance to be this year's 2011 Colts - Teams with this much talent almost never get the chance to get an elite player in the draft. The 2011 Colts showed that a complete implosion, combined with the right year and the right pick, can immediately rejuvenate a franchise.

Biggest Risers:

Pittsburgh, San Diego (5 spots)

San Francisco, Green Bay, St. Louis, Tennessee (3 spots)

Biggest fallers:
New York Jets (9 spots)

Denver, Indianapolis, Chicago, Miami, New York Giants (4 spots)

NFL Draft Picture, Week 12

Here is the NFL Draft order through week 12:

2014 NFL Draft Order
Rank	Team	W	L	T	Pct	Conference	Division	SOV	SOS
1	Houston Texans	2	9	0	0.182	2-5	1-2	0.455	0.545
2	Jacksonville Jaguars	2	9	0	0.182	2-5	2-1	0.318	0.579
3	Atlanta Falcons	2	9	0	0.182	2-6	1-4	0.364	0.595
4	Minnesota Vikings	2	8	1	0.227	1-7-1	0-3-1	0.364	0.521
5	Washington Redskins	3	8	0	0.273	1-7	0-3	0.455	0.521
6	Tampa Bay Buccaneers	3	8	0	0.273	2-6	1-3	0.394	0.562
7	Oakland Raiders	4	7	0	0.364	4-4	1-2	0.318	0.471
8	Cleveland Browns	4	7	0	0.364	3-5	2-3	0.420	0.504
9	New York Giants	4	7	0	0.364	3-5	1-3	0.409	0.562
10	Buffalo Bills	4	7	0	0.364	3-6	2-2	0.523	0.579
11	Pittsburgh Steelers	5	6	0	0.455	4-4	2-1	0.436	0.467
12	Baltimore Ravens	5	6	0	0.455	5-4	2-2	0.418	0.467
13	San Diego Chargers	5	6	0	0.455	3-5	1-2	0.545	0.479
14	New York Jets	5	6	0	0.455	2-6	2-2	0.473	0.496
15*	St. Louis Rams	5	6	0	0.455	2-5	1-2	0.436	0.512
16*	Miami Dolphins	5	6	0	0.455	4-3	0-2	0.455	0.512
17	Green Bay Packers	5	5	1	0.500	3-4-1	2-1-1	0.373	0.438
18	Philadelphia Eagles	6	5	0	0.545	5-2	3-2	0.341	0.459
19	Chicago Bears	6	5	0	0.545	3-5	2-2	0.439	0.479
20	Arizona Cardinals	7	4	0	0.636	4-4	0-3	0.390	0.504
21	Tennessee Titans	5	6	0	0.455	4-4	0-3	0.436	0.504
22	Detroit Lions	6	5	0	0.545	5-3	3-1	0.417	0.455
23	Dallas Cowboys	6	5	0	0.545	6-2	4-0	0.371	0.517
24	Cincinnati Bengals	7	4	0	0.636	5-3	2-2	0.487	0.475
25	Indianapolis Colts	7	4	0	0.636	5-2	3-0	0.506	0.504
26	San Francisco 49ers	7	4	0	0.636	4-3	2-1	0.383	0.525
27	Carolina Panthers	8	3	0	0.727	6-2	2-0	0.415	0.475
28	New England Patriots	8	3	0	0.727	5-2	3-1	0.477	0.512
29	Kansas City Chiefs	9	2	0	0.818	6-2	1-2	0.374	0.421
30	New Orleans Saints	9	2	0	0.818	7-0	3-0	0.424	0.455
31	Denver Broncos	9	2	0	0.818	5-2	3-0	0.444	0.488
32	Seattle Seahawks	10	1	0	0.909	7-0	3-0	0.395	0.417

The first tiebreaker for draft position is strength of schedule (lower SOS gets the higher pick in round 1).
After SOS, the next tie-breakers are conference record and division record. After that it comes down to a coin flip.
* designates teams who would determine the higher pick between them via a coin flip.

Notes: 

• The Rams own the Redskins' 1st round pick as the final piece of the RGIII trade.
• The Browns own the Colts' 1st round pick as part of the Trent Richardson heist trade. 
• The order has been modified to ensure that the 12 "playoff" teams as of week 9 are given draft slots 21-32. This affects the positions of the Titans, Rams, Dolphins, Packers, Lions, Eagles, Bears, Cardinals, and Bengals.