CONCACAF Hexagonal, Match 6

Previous Hex Reports:
Preview
After 1 game
After 3 games
After 4 games
After 5 games

All Results:

Date	Home	Score (H)	Score (A)	Away	Hex Game
6-Feb	Honduras	2	1	United States	1
6-Feb	Mexico	0	0	Jamaica	1
6-Feb	Panama	2	2	Costa Rica	1
22-Mar	Honduras	2	2	Mexico	2
22-Mar	Jamaica	1	1	Panama	2
22-Mar	United States	1	0	Costa Rica	2
26-Mar	Costa Rica	2	0	Jamaica	3
26-Mar	Mexico	0	0	United States	3
26-Mar	Panama	2	0	Honduras	3
4-Jun	Jamaica	0	1	Mexico	6
7-Jun	Costa Rica	1	0	Honduras	4
7-Jun	Jamaica	1	2	United States	4
7-Jun	Panama	0	0	Mexico	4
11-Jun	Honduras	2	0	Jamaica	5
11-Jun	Mexico	0	0	Costa Rica	5
11-Jun	United States	2	0	Panama	5
18-Jun	Costa Rica	2	0	Panama	6
18-Jun	United States	1	0	Honduras	6

USA 1 Honduras 0
Note: Other game notes can be found in the After 4 and After 5 game reports linked above.

Updated Table:

Hex	GP	W	D	L	GD	GF	GA	Pnt	Pts/15	Pts/20
United States	6	4	1	1	4	7	3	13	15	21
Costa Rica	6	3	2	1	4	7	3	11	15	19
Mexico	6	1	5	0	1	3	2	8	9	16
Honduras	6	2	1	3	-1	6	7	7	13	15
Panama	6	1	3	2	-2	5	7	6	11	14
Jamaica	6	0	2	4	-6	2	8	2	7	10

For a discussion of the Pts/15 and Pts/20 columns, see the After 1 game report linked above.

Hex Math: 
First off I would like to officially put to bed the notion that this Hex is the most competitive Hex in the history of CONCACAF. It did look that way a few games ago, mainly for 2 reasons:

1. Jamaica beat the US in the previous round of qualifying
2. Jamaica tied Mexico in Mexico in the first game of this Hex

Now, we know that, the United States was a vastly different team trying to find its way in 2012 and holding Mexico to a scoreless draw in the Azteca is no longer newsworthy. 

Every year one team brings up the rear. The only question is, just how small will the final points total be? Since 1998 qualifying, the bottom squad has averaged 4.75 points. Jamaica, through 6 games, is only on pace for 3.33. The worst Hex performance? Panama in 2006 qualifying. Panama managed only 2 home draws in their 10 games. 

Next, let's take a look at each individual team's forecast. Given the team's point total through 6 games, how have teams with similar point totals (I defined similar to be within 2 points) fared when the Hex is completed?

USA
Points: 13
# of teams since 1998 with this many +/- 2 pts after 6 games: 5
Average final points total of these teams: 19.2
Positive Outlook: Since 1998 qualifying, 5 teams have earned 13 points or more through 6 Hex games. All 5 qualified. 3 out of 5 won the group. And, to repeat myself from the After 5 games report, since 1998, the team that won the Hex had at least 10 points through 5 games. The only team in this Hex to have at least 10 points after 5 games? The United States.
Negative Outlook: The USA's 2 September games are at Costa Rica (where they've never won) and home versus Mexico (who will need the result). The USA could very will be still sitting at 13 points going into October.

Costa Rica
Points: 11
# of teams since 1998 with this many +/- 2 pts after 6 games: 7
Average final points total of these teams: 18.3
Positive Outlook: By far Costa Rica's 2 toughest games remaining are the US and Mexico, and both of these games are at home.
Negative Outlook: In 2010 Costa Rica had 12 points through 6 games (good enough to lead that Hex), and they fell all the way to 4th place and missed out on the World Cup. Their 7th game in that Hex? A 3-0 home loss to Mexico. Their 7th game in this Hex? A home date with the United States.

Mexico
Points: 8
# of teams since 1998 with this many +/- 2 pts after 6 games: 12
Average final points total of these teams: 14.5
Positive Outlook: Despite their poor showings at home so far, they remain the only undefeated team in the Hex and are still in 3rd place.
Negative Outlook: They are the only team to have already played Jamaica twice. That means every other team in the Hex has a shot at the easiest 3 points on the schedule. Also, Mexico's 2 remaining road games (where they have performed better so far): at the US and Costa Rica, easily the two toughest teams remaining.

Honduras
Points: 7
# of teams since 1998 with this many +/- 2 pts after 6 games: 13
Average final points total of these teams: 12.2
Positive Outlook: If 4th place does come down to Honduras versus Panama, Honduras gets Panama at home in September.
Negative Outlook: Qualifying teams average at least 4 road points in a Hex. Honduras currently has zero, with just 2 road games (Mexico and Jamaica) remaining on the schedule.

Panama
Points: 6
# of teams since 1998 with this many +/- 2 pts after 6 games: 12
Average final points total of these teams: 11.3
Positive Outlook: Panama's two remaining home games are Jamaica and a US team that may have nothing to play for in the final game of the Hex.
Negative Outlook: They play both Mexico and Honduras away, their two main competitors for spots 3 and 4 in the Hex.

Jamaica
Points: 13
# of teams since 1998 with this many +/- 2 pts after 6 games: 2
Average final points total of these teams: 3.5
Positive Outlook: There isn't one. There's always at least one minnow in the Hex, and Jamaica is the 2014 qualifying version.
Negative Outlook: They're not qualifying.

Remaining Schedule:

Team	Costa Rica	Honduras	Jamaica	Mexico	Panama	United States
6-Sep	UNITED STATES	at Mexico	at Panama	HONDURAS	JAMAICA	at Costa Rica
10-Sep	at Jamaica	PANAMA	COSTA RICA	at United States	at Honduras	MEXICO
11-Oct	at Honduras	COSTA RICA	at United States	PANAMA	at Mexico	JAMAICA
15-Oct	MEXICO	at Jamaica	HONDURAS	at Costa Rica	UNITED STATES	at Panama

The next games will be played 9/6/2013 and 9/10/2013.