NFL Picks, Week 12

Well this experiment did not go down in flames in week one, as I ended the week at .500. I can only hope that doesn't end up as my high-water mark. My history with March Madness, though, portends doom.

Home teams in CAPS

Houston (-6.5) over JACKSONVILLE
You see this game, and you immediately think about Matt Leinart. He's a party boy quarterback who doesn't treat his job with the respect it's due (allegedly, though Ken Whisenhunt sure believes it). Jacksonville's defense is legitimately good. They're at home. You have successfully talked yourself into the upset...and then you remember Blaine Gabbert is the other quarterback. And Wade Phillips has Houston's D playing well. It's not going to happen.

NY JETS (-9.5) Buffalo
The Jets are coming off of a terrible game against the Broncos, where Mark Sanchez handed the Broncos their only chance at staying in that game. However, the Bills are coming off of an atrocious month, including a 27-point loss to the Dolphins last week. This team is going down in flames, yet thanks to the most recent memory of Sanchez, the line isn't double digits. Thanks Mark!

CINCINNATI (-7) Cleveland
A real defense versus Colt McCoy? Yes please. I'd take two if I could. Can I? Please?

ATLANTA (-9.5) Minnesota
Like I said in the Thanksgiving pick post, going with the chalk too often makes me uneasy. If it were that simple, the betters would have the huge houses and millions, instead of the bookies. But this game features a team who desperately needs it to keep pace, and another team with a rookie QB and without it's best player. If Peterson were healthy, Minnesota has looked surprisingly frisky with Ponder under center. Without him, I just don't see it.

Arizona (+2.5) over ST. LOUIS
As of this post, Kevin Kolb hasn't been declared fit to play. I'm not sure it matters. The Rams are down to their 5th and 6th cornerbacks. John Skelton is perfectly capable of chucking the ball up to Larry Fitzgerald, and it's going to be hard for the Rams to stop it all game long. On the other side of the ball, the Rams will likely be missing both tackles, which doesn't do Steven Jackson any favors (kind of like his entire career).

Carolina (-3.5) over INDIANAPOLIS
After this weekend, Indy plays at New England, at Baltimore, home against Tennessee and Houston, and finally at Jacksonville. This is probably their best shot at a win, at best they have one more shot afterwards. So, it really comes down to how beaten down Carolina and Cam Newton are. It says here that they're not too beaten down to beat on a team that's as hapless as Indy.

Tampa Bay (+3) over TENNESSEE
I have no idea what to make of Tampa Bay. They beat New Orleans, they get throttled by San Francisco. They have young talent, they stayed close-ish with Green Bay, but they seem to take two steps back after every step forward. Then again, their running back is actually trying (type 'LeGarrett Blount' into youtube if you don't believe me).

OAKLAND (-4) over Chicago
Caleb Hanie on the road? Only getting 4 points? No thanks.

SEATTLE (-3.5) over Washington
The Rex Cannon against the 12th man, after Seattle's run defense has put the clamps on his running game? Nah. Better question, what running back will Mike Shanahan inexplicably sit on his bench, simply to score another win over his sworn enemies, the fantasy football owners of America?

Denver (+6) over SAN DIEGO
So, if kneeling down as if in prayer in random places is "Tebowing", is throwing a ball at said person, but having it sail 15 yards past him and hitting a poor old lady instead, be considered "Riversing"?

New England (-3.5) over PHILADELPHIA
The Patriots pass defense can barely stop anyone. They stopped Tyler Palko though, and they'll contain Vince Young.

Pittsburgh (-10.5) over KANSAS CITY
I take back what I said about having 2 helpings of the Bengals over McCoy. In the spirit of large Thanksgiving meals, I'll take six helpings of Pittsburgh's defense against Tyler Palko instead. New England held Palko to 3 points. That means Pittsburgh should hold him to -23 points.

New York Giants (+7) over NEW ORLEANS
Can't give a good reason for this one, just that, as soon as you think the Giants are done and buried, they emerge with a vengeance. Of course, once you think they have it made, they fall flat on their faces. They're coming off of 2 losses (including one to Vince Young), and few people will believe in them in New Orleans, so watch them win.

Last week: 6-6-2
This week: 2-1