Wednesday, November 23, 2011

NFL Picks, Week 12 (Thanksgiving Edition)

Have a Happy Thanksgiving, everyone! I hope you are able to share Thanksgiving with family and friends, and that you have plenty in your lives to be thankful for.

Home teams in CAPS

Green Bay (-6.5) over DETROIT:
Detroit has been pretty hot at home, only the 49ers have emerged from Ford Field victorious this season. And Detroit matches up well with the Packers, as they are vulnerable to the run in order to wreak havoc on their opponent's passing game. Green Bay doesn't run, so that shouldn't hurt them. Green Bay will race out early, but even if Detroit can't keep up initially, they've already come back from 3 separate 17+ point 2nd half deficits. However, unless I'm given a good reason to, I can't go against Aaron Rodgers the way he is playing right now. It may look a lot like the opening night game against New Orleans, but that was good enough.

DALLAS (-7) over Miami:
For all the good Matt Moore has done these last 3 weeks, the Dolphins have given him good support in averaging over 101 yards rushing per game during their 3 game winning streak. They won't get there against Dallas, and Moore is not winning this game by himself. If he has to, you'll see why he lost his job to Jimmy Clausen last season.

BALTIMORE (-3) over San Francisco:
Honestly, I hate going with the chalk in all 3 of these games, because there's always one where something weird happens and the game ends up closer than it has any right to be. I was going to say Miami kept things tight, but I couldn't take Matt Moore against a decent defense on the road. That leaves Baltimore, and I could see San Francisco not letting Alex Smith do much of anything, keep the game close with their defense, and hope Smith outduels Flacco down the stretch. But this will be an emotional game, and the Ravens tend to get up for the emotional games.

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