Sunday, February 5, 2012

Congratulations Cortez Kennedy!

Cortez Kennedy was elected to the pro football hall of fame yesterday. Football doesn't send players in with an association to a team like baseball does. If they did, Kennedy would be the 2nd Seahawk, after Steve Largent, and the first I got to see play in games on TV, not just highlights.

Congrats, Tez!

Friday, February 3, 2012

The Super Bowl Pick

This is it, the end of the NFL season. The final game that will end the story of the 2011-2012 season and probably serve as the first thing people will remember about this season years down the road. More importantly, my postseason picks are right at .500 with this one game left. I pick it right, I get to salvage some of my pride from my (abridged) attempt at picking the games which started strong and faded swiftly in the last few weeks. I pick it wrong, and both my regular season and playoff picks will finish below .500.

Better connected people than I have spent almost 2 weeks picking apart these two teams and this game. And this year we have even more material than normal to comb through, as these two teams played each other back in week 9, with the Giants handing the Patriots their last loss (New England is 10-0 since then, including the playoffs).

Of all the matchups, statistics, and injuries that go into the outcome for Sunday’s game, here are the top 3 in my mind:

The injury: Rob Gronkowski’s high ankle sprain:
New England’s offense has been a well-oiled dynamic machine for years now (all the way back to 2007), and most of the credit for that goes to Tom Brady. However, this year Brady hasn’t been his heroic self as often as we’ve come to expect. Instead the main contributor to New England’s outstanding offense has been a tight end: Mr. I Am Party himself. Comparing this offense to the 2007 offense, Gronk has been part Randy Moss and part Wes Welker. He has both been the giant threat defenses have to allocate multiple resources to (Moss) but also a guy to rack up catches, serve as a security blanket to Brady (especially in the red zone), and generally confound the other team’s efforts to get the Patriot offense off the field. The good news? He’s going to play, I don’t see how there can be any doubt about that. The bad news: There’s no way he’s close to 100%, and if he’s severely limited, the Patriots offense will suffer considerably.

The matchup: New England’s OL versus New York’s DL:
The Giants lost 7 games to other NFC teams in the regular season. They were swept by the Redskins, lost at home to Seattle, and dropped 4 in a row during the second half of the season. However, they dealt with injuries to their vaunted DL throughout much of the season, and now everybody’s healthy. That’s what has allowed New York to rip their way through the playoffs. Yes, the offense has certainly done its part, but it’s the defensive line that makes the Giants run: they are talented, and they are deep. This is the same formula that allowed the Giants to upset the undefeated Patriots back in February, 2008. Some of the faces are even the same.

New England’s offensive line has done a good job keeping heat off of Brady, but they haven’t been tested like they will be against New York on Sunday. I expect the Patriots to call a good number of quick throws and outlet throws to combat the pass rush. The problem is, the best way to neutralize the Giants pass rush is to run the ball at them. They aren’t very good at defending the run. San Francisco ran the ball a lot and was able to take advantage of a couple of big plays to Vernon Davis when the Giants brought more players closer to the line. Why is this a problem? New England doesn’t want to get into a grind it out game any more than the Giants want them to do it. It plays to the Patriots’ weaknesses just like it plays to the Giants’.

The storyline: The Giants have played this game before…and won convincingly:
The Giants are playing a team they met in the regular season who has a poor running game, a sieve-like defense that contains damage by forcing turnovers and FG attempts, and one of the (and maybe the) top quarterback(s) in the game. Sound familiar? It should.

Green Bay and the Patriots were essentially carbon copies of each other this season: A team with a prolific offense and a defense that couldn’t stop anyone (especially through the air) but could contain the damage enough to allow the offense to win the game for the team. However, the Packers were better at it than the Patriots…and the playoff Giants destroyed them at home.

Honestly, the best thing New England can point at to refute the above paragraph is Rob Gronkowski. He’s a better talent than the Green Bay offense can lay claim to (outside of the quarterback position, of course), and can single-handedly change the course of the game given his size and skill package. Unfortunately, he’s hurt, and while he will play, he won’t be near 100% 2 weeks after suffering a high ankle sprain. Can he make a few big plays on Sunday? Sure. Can he effect what the defense is doing play after play for 4 quarters? I don’t see it.

So if the offense is going to run into the buzz saw that has been the Giants defense this postseason, can the New England defense do enough to win the game? Recent history suggests yes, as that is exactly what happened in the AFC Championship game against the Ravens, and the yonly gave up 7 points to the Broncos. There’s even precedent for a terrible regular season defense turning it on in the playoffs and carrying at least its fair share of the burden on the way to a Super Bowl win: the 2006-07 Indianapolis Colts. The problem with this line of thought is the opposing quarterbacks the New England defense has achieved this rebirth against: Tim Tebow and Joe Flacco. Tebow is a great story, but not a good quarterback. Flacco is mediocre. Eli Manning, this season, is a top-5 QB.

I believe the Giants will jump out to an early 10 point lead and the Patriots will spend most of the last 2-2.5 quarters chipping away at that lead. The Pats will mount a comeback, and will get it down to a one-score game in the 4th quarter, but ultimately the comeback will fall short. And so, the pick is...

New York Giants (+3) over New England
Final Score: Giants 27, Patriots 23
MVP: Eli Manning

And an early Happy birthday to my son, Miles, who turns 1 on Sunday!

Postseason: 5-5
Regular Season: 51-55-4 (.482)

Friday, January 27, 2012

Suck for Luck Picture, Championship Round


























































































































































































































































































































































Current NFL Draft Order
RkTeamWLTPctSOSConfDiv
1Indianapolis2140.125.5392-102-4
2St. Louis2140.125.5901-110-6
3Minnesota3130.188.5593-90-6
4Cleveland4120.250.5313-90-6
5Tampa Bay4120.250.5513-92-4
6Washington5110.313.4775-72-4
7Jacksonville5110.313.5004-83-3
8Carolina*6100.375.5043-92-4
9Miami*6100.375.5045-73-3
10Buffalo6100.375.5204-81-5
11Kansas City*790.438.5124-83-3
12Seattle*790.438.5126-63-3
13Arizona880.500.4697-54-2
14Dallas880.500.4736-62-4
15Philadelphia880.500.4886-65-1
16New York Jets880.500.5006-63-3
17Oakland880.500.5046-63-3
18San Diego880.500.5167-53-3
19Chicago880.500.5277-53-3
20Tennessee970.563.4617-53-3
21Cincinnati970.563.4926-62-4
22Atlanta1060.625.4807-53-3
23Detroit1060.625.5356-63-3
24Pittsburgh1240.750.4929-34-2
25Denver880.500.5206-63-3
26Houston1060.625.4538-44-2
27New Orleans1330.813.4419-35-1
28Green Bay1510.938.45712-06-0
29Baltimore1240.750.4779-36-0
30San Francisco1330.813.44910-25-1


The first tiebreaker for draft position is strength of schedule (lower SOS gets the higher pick in round 1).
After SOS, the next tie-breakers are conference record and division record. After that it comes down to a coin flip.
*-indicates 2 teams who require a coin flip to determine the order of their 1st round picks

With three weeks of the playoffs behind us, the order of the first 30 selections of the first round of the 2012 NFL Draft are now set in stone (though with trades the teams listed above may not all make their own picks in these slots, see below) minus the ties above that need coin flips, as indicated above.

Only 2 picks left up in the air: the 31st pick will go to the Super Bowl loser, and the 32nd pick will go to the Super Bowl winner.

Trades:
Oakland's first round pick (#17) belongs to Cincinnati as part of the 2011 Carson Palmer trade.
Atlanta's first round pick (#22) belongs to Cleveland as part of a 2011 draft-day trade.
New Orleans' first round pick (#27) belongs to New England as part of a 2011 draft-day trade.

Tuesday, January 24, 2012

Five Thoughts on the Conference Championship Games

Patriots 23, Ravens 20
1) Joe Flacco performed better than expected in this game, but I think he's actually getting too much credit for his performance. Yes, if not for Lee Evans, he would have led the Ravens to a late, 4th quarter win that got his team into the Super Bowl. But if he had seen Vonta Leach wide open 5 yards in front of him in the 3rd quarter instead of forcing a pass to a covered receiver in the end zone in the 3rd quarter, it may not have come to that. But more than any one specific play, it's that Joe Flacco is a statue in the pocket. If you get any pressure on him up the middle, he's done, because he moves in the pocket with the grace of a fish on land (or Drew Bledsoe). In contrast, Tom Brady would just slide step right or left, throw the ball downfield, and then complain to the referee because somebody breathed on him.

2) Give the Patriots defense credit, they made the plays when they needed to, and they stiffened in the red zone. Baltimore got their yards (Flacco had over 300), but they only got into the end zone twice. That allowed the offense to stay competitive, even on an off-day for Tom Brady. The last 2 seasons in the playoffs, when Brady had an off-day, the other 44 guys couldn't pick him up. In this game, they did just that.

3) Ravens offensive coordinator Cam Cameron's contract expired once the Ravens' season ended. If they're smart, they're already looking elsewhere for their 2012 OC. How many times did Cameron continue to run Ray Rice/Ricky Williams into the middle of the Patriots defense, even though it became clear early on that Vince Wilfork was the most dominant player on the field? With just over 3 minutes left in the game and down by 3, Baltimore had 3rd and 3 at the Pats 33. Gaining nothing would have left them with a 50 yard field goal, and we later learned that Baltimore didn't trust their kicker with 50+ yard attempts. So Cameron sets Flacco up in the shotgun, and runs a draw (slow developing play) right into the middle of the Pats D. If Ndamakong Suh is playing the middle, and you can expect him to blindly rush Flacco, the call makes sense. But with the disciplined (and, as already mentioned, on fire) Wilfork in the middle, this is a terrible idea. Add in the fact that even if they gain a yard or two, they're not sure about their kicker hitting the field goal, and the call becomes more idiotic. As it was, they lost 3 yards on the play, and then couldn't convert 4th and 6.

And another thing regarding Cam Cameron. When they lined up WR Anquan Boldin in the slot (a position he is very comfortable with), he would be guarded by Patriots WR Julian Edelman. If the teams had been reversed and Baltimore had done this to Belichick's team, he would have kept throwing to Boldin until Boldin had 13 catches for 350 yards and 4 TDs, or until the other team adjusted. Boldin had 8 targets all game, not bad, but not putting the screws to the giant mismatch either. Why not, Cam? If not the entire game, than at least on the last drive where you're running no huddle, and the Pats are stuck with the players and matchups they have. And this guy is one of the highest paid coordinators in the game. Really?

4) Tom Brady is outstanding at short yardage plays. Whether it's the 4th and goal leap to secure the TD, or just random 3rd and short plays during a game where he snaps it quick and pushes forward for 3-5 yards, catching the defense off-balance. What I don't understand is, why is Brady so far and away better at this stuff than anyone else? No one else executes these plays like Brady, and unlike reading a defense/making pinpoint throws under pressure, I just don't see why anyone (or at least anyone able to start at QB in the NFL) can't be good at this.

5) Apparently the Cundiff FG miss was somewhat rushed because there was confusion on the Ravens sideline as to whether it was 3rd or 4th down. Apparently, the scoreboard at Gilette had it wrong, and the confusion stemmed from the first down play where Anquan Boldin was tackled after a 9 yard gain but fumbled out of bounds a few yards ahead. Now, NFL rules state that in the last 2 minutes (it might be 5 minutes, I'm not sure) of a half, a recovered fumble cannot be advanced by anyone on the offense except for the fumbler himself. So even though the ball went out of bounds past the first down marker, it was spotted where he fumbled, short of the first down.

Putting all of that aside though, there are official down markers on both sidelines, so someone should have noticed. And, more importantly, the Ravens had a timeout. Let me say that again: the Ravens had a timeout in their pocket. If they were scrambling, call the timeout and get everyone settled. Why save the timeout? What does that gain you? Terrible job by John Harbaugh.

Bonus) Billy Cundiff made my 1-year old son cry. No, he's not a Ravens fan, but when everyone we were watching the game with shouted with joy when Cundiff blew it, my son was startled and not very happy with the sudden loud noises.

Giants 20, 49ers 17 (OT)
1) After convincing many that you could win a Super Bowl with Alex Smith as your quarterback, Alex Smith decided to make the case that, actually, no. No you can't win a Super Bowl with Alex Smith as your quarterback. It's not that Smith cost his team the game, or even was terrible, especially considering the conditions, but he looked nothing like the quarterback who led his team to the win over the Saints. Smith was turfing balls yards in front of receivers (or as Philly fans call it: McNabbing) many times, and missed a couple of open guys.

2) The Giants had 12 possessions in the second half and overtime. 10 ended in punts. The other two were on short fields thanks to one Kyle Williams. Williams, as you have probably heard by now, was San Francisco's backup punt returner, only returning kicks because Ted Ginn Jr. was injured in the Saints game and unable to play in this one. The upshot? San Francisco's defense is crazy good.

3) Two things confused me a bit on the Giants side. On offense, the Giants ran a lot of slow developing routes, even though it was clear in the second half that their line could not give Manning the time he needed for those routes to develop. On defense, the Giants gave Smith his outlets free on many occasions, despite the fact that he had struggled to complete passes to his receivers many times throughout the season, and even moreso in this game. The defensive strategy is more understandable, in that San Francisco's only offense was the big play, so New York tried to take that away. The offensive strategy? I don't really get it.

4) The Ahmad Bradshaw non-fumble was the correct call, but that's about as quick a whistle as I've seen on a forward progress play. I'd estimate that at least 80% of the time the whistle doesn't blow quickly enough to call the play dead before the fumble. In a postseason where the referees have been slow to blow their whistles (especially compared to the regular season), it was surprising, but San Francisco can't claim they were robbed on account of it.

5) San Francisco's offensive line really exceeded expectations. I expected something like the Thanksgiving night game against Baltimore (9 sacks of Alex Smith), as New York's defensive line is killing it these playoffs. Alex Smith was pressured often, but he was able to avoid large negative plays most of the night.

Sunday, January 22, 2012

NFL Picks, Conference Championships

For now, just the picks:

NEW ENGLAND (-7) over Baltimore

New York Giants (+2.5) over SAN FRANCISCO