Tuesday, January 24, 2012

Five Thoughts on the Conference Championship Games

Patriots 23, Ravens 20
1) Joe Flacco performed better than expected in this game, but I think he's actually getting too much credit for his performance. Yes, if not for Lee Evans, he would have led the Ravens to a late, 4th quarter win that got his team into the Super Bowl. But if he had seen Vonta Leach wide open 5 yards in front of him in the 3rd quarter instead of forcing a pass to a covered receiver in the end zone in the 3rd quarter, it may not have come to that. But more than any one specific play, it's that Joe Flacco is a statue in the pocket. If you get any pressure on him up the middle, he's done, because he moves in the pocket with the grace of a fish on land (or Drew Bledsoe). In contrast, Tom Brady would just slide step right or left, throw the ball downfield, and then complain to the referee because somebody breathed on him.

2) Give the Patriots defense credit, they made the plays when they needed to, and they stiffened in the red zone. Baltimore got their yards (Flacco had over 300), but they only got into the end zone twice. That allowed the offense to stay competitive, even on an off-day for Tom Brady. The last 2 seasons in the playoffs, when Brady had an off-day, the other 44 guys couldn't pick him up. In this game, they did just that.

3) Ravens offensive coordinator Cam Cameron's contract expired once the Ravens' season ended. If they're smart, they're already looking elsewhere for their 2012 OC. How many times did Cameron continue to run Ray Rice/Ricky Williams into the middle of the Patriots defense, even though it became clear early on that Vince Wilfork was the most dominant player on the field? With just over 3 minutes left in the game and down by 3, Baltimore had 3rd and 3 at the Pats 33. Gaining nothing would have left them with a 50 yard field goal, and we later learned that Baltimore didn't trust their kicker with 50+ yard attempts. So Cameron sets Flacco up in the shotgun, and runs a draw (slow developing play) right into the middle of the Pats D. If Ndamakong Suh is playing the middle, and you can expect him to blindly rush Flacco, the call makes sense. But with the disciplined (and, as already mentioned, on fire) Wilfork in the middle, this is a terrible idea. Add in the fact that even if they gain a yard or two, they're not sure about their kicker hitting the field goal, and the call becomes more idiotic. As it was, they lost 3 yards on the play, and then couldn't convert 4th and 6.

And another thing regarding Cam Cameron. When they lined up WR Anquan Boldin in the slot (a position he is very comfortable with), he would be guarded by Patriots WR Julian Edelman. If the teams had been reversed and Baltimore had done this to Belichick's team, he would have kept throwing to Boldin until Boldin had 13 catches for 350 yards and 4 TDs, or until the other team adjusted. Boldin had 8 targets all game, not bad, but not putting the screws to the giant mismatch either. Why not, Cam? If not the entire game, than at least on the last drive where you're running no huddle, and the Pats are stuck with the players and matchups they have. And this guy is one of the highest paid coordinators in the game. Really?

4) Tom Brady is outstanding at short yardage plays. Whether it's the 4th and goal leap to secure the TD, or just random 3rd and short plays during a game where he snaps it quick and pushes forward for 3-5 yards, catching the defense off-balance. What I don't understand is, why is Brady so far and away better at this stuff than anyone else? No one else executes these plays like Brady, and unlike reading a defense/making pinpoint throws under pressure, I just don't see why anyone (or at least anyone able to start at QB in the NFL) can't be good at this.

5) Apparently the Cundiff FG miss was somewhat rushed because there was confusion on the Ravens sideline as to whether it was 3rd or 4th down. Apparently, the scoreboard at Gilette had it wrong, and the confusion stemmed from the first down play where Anquan Boldin was tackled after a 9 yard gain but fumbled out of bounds a few yards ahead. Now, NFL rules state that in the last 2 minutes (it might be 5 minutes, I'm not sure) of a half, a recovered fumble cannot be advanced by anyone on the offense except for the fumbler himself. So even though the ball went out of bounds past the first down marker, it was spotted where he fumbled, short of the first down.

Putting all of that aside though, there are official down markers on both sidelines, so someone should have noticed. And, more importantly, the Ravens had a timeout. Let me say that again: the Ravens had a timeout in their pocket. If they were scrambling, call the timeout and get everyone settled. Why save the timeout? What does that gain you? Terrible job by John Harbaugh.

Bonus) Billy Cundiff made my 1-year old son cry. No, he's not a Ravens fan, but when everyone we were watching the game with shouted with joy when Cundiff blew it, my son was startled and not very happy with the sudden loud noises.

Giants 20, 49ers 17 (OT)
1) After convincing many that you could win a Super Bowl with Alex Smith as your quarterback, Alex Smith decided to make the case that, actually, no. No you can't win a Super Bowl with Alex Smith as your quarterback. It's not that Smith cost his team the game, or even was terrible, especially considering the conditions, but he looked nothing like the quarterback who led his team to the win over the Saints. Smith was turfing balls yards in front of receivers (or as Philly fans call it: McNabbing) many times, and missed a couple of open guys.

2) The Giants had 12 possessions in the second half and overtime. 10 ended in punts. The other two were on short fields thanks to one Kyle Williams. Williams, as you have probably heard by now, was San Francisco's backup punt returner, only returning kicks because Ted Ginn Jr. was injured in the Saints game and unable to play in this one. The upshot? San Francisco's defense is crazy good.

3) Two things confused me a bit on the Giants side. On offense, the Giants ran a lot of slow developing routes, even though it was clear in the second half that their line could not give Manning the time he needed for those routes to develop. On defense, the Giants gave Smith his outlets free on many occasions, despite the fact that he had struggled to complete passes to his receivers many times throughout the season, and even moreso in this game. The defensive strategy is more understandable, in that San Francisco's only offense was the big play, so New York tried to take that away. The offensive strategy? I don't really get it.

4) The Ahmad Bradshaw non-fumble was the correct call, but that's about as quick a whistle as I've seen on a forward progress play. I'd estimate that at least 80% of the time the whistle doesn't blow quickly enough to call the play dead before the fumble. In a postseason where the referees have been slow to blow their whistles (especially compared to the regular season), it was surprising, but San Francisco can't claim they were robbed on account of it.

5) San Francisco's offensive line really exceeded expectations. I expected something like the Thanksgiving night game against Baltimore (9 sacks of Alex Smith), as New York's defensive line is killing it these playoffs. Alex Smith was pressured often, but he was able to avoid large negative plays most of the night.

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