AFC Playoff Picture, Week 11

AFC Playoff Picture

Rk	Team	W	L	T	Pct	Div	Conf
1	Baltimore	7	3	0	.700	3-0	5-2
2	Houston	7	3	0	.700	3-0	6-2
3	New England	7	3	0	.700	3-1	6-2
4	Oakland	6	4	0	.600	2-2	5-4
5	Pittsburgh	7	3	0	.700	1-2	5-3
6	Cincinnati	6	4	0	.600	1-2	5-3
-	Denver	5	5	0	.500	2-2	5-3
-	Tennessee	5	5	0	.500	1-2	4-4
-	New York Jets	5	5	0	.500	2-2	4-5
-	Buffalo	5	5	0	.500	1-2	3-3
-	San Diego	4	6	0	.400	2-2	3-4
-	Cleveland	4	6	0	.400	0-1	3-4
-	Kansas City	4	6	0	.400	2-2	3-5

Baltimore comes through with a big win over the Bengals, and with that takes control of the AFC for now.

Tennessee's loss to Atlanta gives Matt Leinart a 2-game cushion for the division, even if Leinart has learned nothing since being banished from Arizona, Houston's not losing that cushion.

I still like New England's chances to end up with the #1 overall seed. At their best, they're maybe 3rd best in the conference, but their lapses aren't as bad as those of Baltimore.

The AFC West will be interesting, 2 teams set to duke it out, and neither of them is San Diego? Even with Norv Turner as the coach, that's still surprising.

The Wild Card looks like it's down to 3 teams: the 2 in the AFC North that don't win the division, and the Jets. Sure the Bills and Titans are a game out as well, but neither has given any indication they can run with the big boys in the last month. And the reason I include the Jets is Cincy still has games against Pittsburgh, Houston, and Baltimore left.

Key Games this week:
Buffalo at New York Jets - With Cincinnati playing Cleveland this week, odds are the loser of this game drops 2 games back of the final AFC playoff spot. Both teams are coming off of very down weeks, but Buffalo is stuck in a month-long funk at this point.
Denver at San Diego - The magic and good feelings of Tebow go up against the mess that is Phillip Rivers. A San Diego win could keep the AFC West race a tight mess. A San Diego loss could put them on the precipice, as they's be at least 2 back of both Denver and Oakland, fall to 2-3 in the division, and 3-5 in the conference.
Pittsburgh at Kansas City - Tyler Palko managed 3 whole points against the worst pass defense in the league. Now he gets Pittsburgh. And guess what, it's in prime time again (this time Sunday night). Hooray for terrible blowouts!.

NFL, Week 11

It was a busy weekend, so I was able to watch even less of the NFL than has become the norm in this new baby-filled frontier. So here are some quick hits:

- While Thursday's game will certainly add to the legend of Tebow, my biggest takeaway was how terribly Mark Sanchez played, and how little he needed to do for the Jets to win that game, and he still couldn't do it. Sanchez has made a habit of defying expectations (be those high or low ones), so we'll see how he bounces back from this low point.

- Oklahoma State sent the college football world into chaos thanks to their inexplicable loss to Iowa State (they of the 6-4 overall record). This loss put us one step closer to a thoroughly unappealing rematch option of LSU-Alabama. Luckily, both Oregon and Oklahoma had a chance to a) keep us from having to watch those two atrocious offenses go up against NFL-quality defenses again, and b) keep us from having a team who not only didn't even win their conference, they wouldn't even get the chance to play for their conference title, play in the national title game.

Unluckily, both failed. At this point, I don't see a way for us to avoid an SEC-West rematch for the national title.

- Granted they don't have to be great, but Green Bay's defense giving up 26 points to maddeningly inconsistent Tampa Bay (including LeGarrett Blount's Beast Mode impersonation) is a huge concern going forward.

- So Detroit's offense is capable of coming back from almost any deficit, and Green Bay's defense has been less than impressive all season. How big of a lead do the Packers need to get for me to feel safe turning off the TV at halftime. 50 points?

- Buyer's remorse much, Buffalo? Ryan Fitzpatrick seems like a good guy from afar, so maybe this will work out, but the immediate returns have been terrible. 0 touchdowns against Miami?

- Is it just me, or does Dan Patrick narrate a highlight of Redskins kicker Graham Gano missing a high leverage field goal every other week on Sunday Night Football's pregame show? Maybe an upgrade is in order?

- In the last 13 games between the two teams, Seattle has beaten St. Louis 12 times. The lone exception? Last year in St. Louis, also known as the only one of these 13 games that I attended. Screw you St. Louis, I'm glad you're a total train-wreck.

- I'd make a comment about the Chicago-San Diego game, but my friend Steveo summarized that game perfectly: "Is Phillip Rivers trying to get Norv Turner fired?" I'll let you guess which Rivers throw prompted this question.

- Of course, if that were the case, could you blame Rivers?

- Andy Reid finally allowed the Eagles to run almost as much as they threw the ball on Sunday, and somehow Philly beat the Giants behind Vince Young. I'm going to go out on a limb and say the two are related.

NFL Picks, Week 11

When I was little, I’d always read the NFL picks column in the Boston Globe. I’m not sure why I attached any importance to these columns, but I’d usually get bent out of shape when I saw them picking against the Seahawks (not only were they never that great while I was growing up, they were awful against the spread). As I got older and the internet began cannibalizing newspapers, I’d get my NFL picks reading fix from Bill Simmons on espn.com. Finally, I figured, why not give it a shot? So, in the 11th week of the 2011 NFL season, I begin my quest to not totally embarrass myself.

Home teams in CAPS:

GREEN BAY (-14) over Tampa Bay
Aaron Rodgers is putting up 30 points in his sleep. Tampa Bay really hasn’t ever gotten going this season. Their first New Orleans game was a big win for them, but last year’s team was 10-6 and just missed the playoffs. This year’s team is running in place. In my fantasy draft, my wife picked Joe Flacco as her QB. I immediately made faces, having had Flacco as my fantasy QB the previous season (and weathered the trip between decent and terrible week-to-week). I advised her to get a second QB quickly. That was good advice. I then tossed out Josh Freeman’s name. Not such a good call. It’s like double Flacco. No one likes double Flacco, even Mrs. Flacco.

Carolina (+7) over DETROIT
I don’t think Detroit is a fraud, but I’m worried about how they’ve stumbled after their 5-0 start. Stafford has a broken finger, and was horribly inaccurate against the Bears. Unfortunately, Detroit can’t run the ball at all, so it’s all on Stafford. Also a problem, Detroit has trouble with teams who run the ball at them a bunch, and I can’t imagine Carolina not trying that with Williams and Stewart. I think Carolina keeps it close, and adds a late score to cover, but not threaten the Lions.

Jacksonville (+1) over CLEVELAND
I watched more of the Seattle-Cleveland debacle than was healthy for me. Cleveland is a terrible team. Seattle was worse that day, but if they could have run the ball at all, they would have won. All Jacksonville can do is run and play defense. There’s no danger of Cleveland running out to a big lead and forcing Gabbert to play catch-up, and if allowed to play their conservative game plan, Jacksonville actually does that pretty well. The only sure thing, you don’t want to watch this game. Even looking at the play-by-play may be hazardous to your health.

Oakland (PK) over Minnesota
I’m not really sure I want to buy into the Carson Palmer experience, but Oakland cannot afford to lose this game, given the schedule they have coming up. Thus year, when Oakland’s needed a win, they’ve usually gotten it.

Buffalo (+2) over MIAMI
Yes, Miami has shown admirable guts these last two weeks (are you watching, Indy?), but this is a terrible matchup for them. Buffalo is reeling after starting 4-1, but Miami is very vulnerable to Buffalo’s spread-em out and chuck it game. As long as Ryan Fitzpatrick can shake off the rough patch and not have a 3-4 INT game, Buffalo will stay relevant for at least another week.

Dallas (-7) WASHINGTON
Since it’s a home game, the Redskins should hold the following promotion at halftime: Mike Shanahan has to stand at midfield, and a Washington quarterback gets to stand 15 yards away and attempt to hit him with a football. However, Shanahan gets to decide which QB gets to attempt the throw, and then the other quarterback gets to start for the rest of the season. Would Shanahan choose the Sex Cannon, where he’s have a 75% chance of blacking out from the pain and a 25% chance of getting away scott-free, or would he choose Beck, where he’d have a 95% chance of getting hit, and a 15% chance of actually feeling the hit? That pretty much sums up Washington’s season.

Cincinnati (+7) over BALTIMORE
Oh boy, that’s a tough line. Good Baltimore would make mincemeat of a rookie quarterback, and Good Flacco would put up a 250 yard, 1-2 TD day against a Cincinnati defense keying on Ray Rice. Bad Baltimore wouldn’t let Rice get more than 15 touches, and instead let Flacco sling it 45 times, completing maybe 25 of those. Good Baltimore wins by 17. Bad Baltimore probably loses this one. Given Cincinatti’s hex over Baltimore the last 2 seasons (3-1), I’m guessing bad Baltimore shows up again, and CIncy wins outright.

BYE (-12) over Indianapolis
I know, I know, this line is way too low.

SAN FRANCISCO (-9.5) over Arizona
A team that can’t run versus a rush defense that has allowed 0 rushing touchdowns on the season. Oh yeah, and John Skelton will be quarterbacking the Cardinals too. Larry Fitzgerald will get his catches, but it won’t be nearly enough.

Seattle (+3) over ST. LOUIS
The last time the Seahawks had an impressive victory, they followed it up with the ugly 6-3 loss in Cleveland. I just don’t see an encore here (and I’m a terrific pessimist when it comes to the Seahawks). Seattle can’t defend the pass, but St. Louis can’t throw it. St. Louis has Steven Jackson, but Seattle has a very good run defense. Seattle can’t throw either, but the Rams might actually be worse at defending the pass than the Seahawks. It won’t be pretty, but Seattle will come out of this one with a win thanks to Marshawn Lynch. Beastquake!

ATLANTA (-6) over Tennessee
I trust Atlanta’s offense over Tennessee’s with Chris Johnson stuck in neutral and Matt Hasselbeck having no one to throw to.

CHICAGO (-3.5) over San Diego
Yes, Chicago has looked outstanding the last two weeks. I’m a little concerned that some of that is who they were playing: Philly is clearly not who we thought they were, and Detroit isn’t as good as their 5-0 start would have you believe. Not to say Chicago’s D isn’t good, but they may not be world-beaters. In the past few seasons, that distinction might have mattered, as back then San Diego was a truly good offense. They would have given up 3 touchdowns to Devin Hester, but their offense would have put up points. This year? Well, they won’t give up more than 1 touchdown to Hester. And they won’t fare much better than Philly or Detroit against this defense.

Philadelphia (+6) over NY GIANTS
Philadelphia needs to go 7-0 to make the playoffs. I don’t think they get there, but I do think they come out fighting with their backs against the wall. That’s enough this week. I’m assuming Vick plays, but like I said, Philly must win this game, plus their next 6. Vince Young isn’t getting that done.

NEW ENGLAND (-15) over Kansas City
Two words: Tyler Palko. I don’t care how bad the Patriots pass defense is, they can contain Tyler Palko.

This week: 0-1

Suck for Luck Picture, Week 10

Current NFL Draft Order

Rk	Team	W	L	T	Pct	SOS	SOV
1	Indianapolis	0	10	0	.000	.548	.000
2	Miami	2	7	0	.222	.512	.389
3	Carolina	2	7	0	.222	.524	.333
4	St. Louis	2	7	0	.222	.549	.526
5	Minnesota	2	7	0	.222	.580	.278
6	Arizona	3	6	0	.333	.415	.259
7	Washington	3	6	0	.333	.444	.407
8	Cleveland	3	6	0	.333	.458	.179
9	Jacksonville	3	6	0	.333	.529	.393
10	Philadelphia	3	6	0	.333	.531	.370
11	Seattle	3	6	0	.333	.598	.556

For those of you who don't know, the tiebreaker for draft position is strength of schedule (lower SOS gets the higher pick in round 1).

And with the first pick in the 2012 draft, the Indianapolis Colts select...I'm going with Andrew Luck. Peyton Manning could throw a wrench into the works and attempt to push the Colts to trade the Luck pick for a package of picks and maybe a couple players, but if I'm the Colts, I'm not willing to hitch my wagon to Manning considering his age and the fact that he's coming off of a serious neck injury. I don't see them passing on Luck.

After them, Miami is taking the best of the rest of the QBs. Their fans will riot if they don't (and they should).

But then? Carolina (just took Newton #1 overall) won't. St. Louis (took Bradford #1 overall in '09) won't. Minnesota (Ponder #12 overall in '10) won't. Arizona (just paid Kevin Kolb a LOT of money) probably won't. Yes paying Kolb looks like a terrible decision right now, but without a shot at Luck, I don't see them going QB.

Washington will absolutely grab a quarterback. Cleveland probably will. I don't see noted QB guru Mike Holmgren going into another season with Colt McCoy as his only option. That leaves Seattle out in the cold in this scenario, as they would be picking without Luck, Barkley, Jones, and Griffin III on the board. For a team that a) desperately needs a quarterback and b) spent this past offseason trying to shore up every other position in preparation for grabbing their quarterback in this draft, that's not a good scenario.

Luckily for the Seahawks, there are 6 games left, so things could shake out very differently by the end of the season.

NFC Playoff Picture, Week 10

NFC Playoff Picture

Rk	Team	W	L	T	Pct	Div	Conf
1	Green Bay	9	0	0	1.000	3-0	7-0
2	San Francisco	8	1	0	.889	1-0	6-1
3	New Orleans Saints	7	3	0	.700	3-1	4-3
4	New York Giants	6	3	0	.667	1-1	3-3
5	Detroit	6	3	0	.667	2-1	4-3
6	Chicago	6	3	0	.667	2-2	6-3
-	Dallas	5	4	0	.556	1-1	4-2
-	Atlanta	5	4	0	.556	1-2	4-4
-	Tampa Bay	4	5	0	.444	2-1	3-4

The NFC has to be worried that the Packers defense showed up on Monday night. If the Pack have even a competent defense, everyone else is in trouble. The 49ers are for real too. Their defense is legit (no rushing touchdowns allowed this season).

The Saints are a force, but they look like a poor man's Green Bay from where I'm sitting. They can knock off most anyone else in the NFC though.

But the team to fear right now is Chicago. If their defense is as good as they've looked these last 2 weeks, look out. They might be the one team who can stop the Packers.

Key Games this week:
Tampa Bay at Green Bay - Maybe last year's Tampa team could have challenged Green Bay, but this team is way too inconsistent. Josh Freeman has not taken that extra leap forward in year 3.
Philadelphia at New York Giants - Okay, I'm stretching on this one, as Philly isn't in the playoff picture at the present moment. But I think 10-6 will get a wild card spot in the NFC, but that would require Philly to win out. Given their performance to date, there is no reason to expect that sort of consistency out of them, but if we're going to see it, it will have to start this Sunday night. The Giants have other things to worry about, namely keeping up with the other division leaders, and Dallas, only a game behind them in the East.