AFC Playoff Picture, Week 10

AFC Playoff Picture

Rk	Team	W	L	T	Pct	Div	Conf
1	Houston	7	3	0	.700	3-0	6-2
2	Pittsburgh	7	3	0	.700	1-2	5-3
3	New England	6	3	0	.667	3-1	5-2
4	Oakland	5	4	0	.556	2-2	5-4
5	Baltimore	6	3	0	.667	2-0	4-2
6	Cincinnati	6	3	0	.667	1-1	5-2
-	New York Jets	5	4	0	.556	2-2	4-4
-	Buffalo	5	4	0	.556	1-1	3-2
-	Tennessee	5	4	0	.556	1-2	4-4
-	San Diego	4	5	0	.444	2-2	3-4
-	Denver	4	5	0	.444	2-2	4-3
-	Kansas City	4	5	0	.444	2-2	3-4

Houston has never made the playoffs in their existence (2002). Today they sit in the top spot in the AFC, and they have done it predominantly without their best offensive (Andre Johnson) or defensive (Mario Williams - on IR) players. However, they also just lost their quarterback, Matt Schaub, and now their season rests on the shoulders of one Matt Leinart. The same Matt Leinart who so completely lost the faith of his head coach in Arizona, that said head coach went into a season with Max Hall, John Skelton, and Derek Anderson at quarterback, rather than carry Mr. Leinart. I don't see Houston losing the division (only Tennesee's within striking distance, and 2 games back with 6 to play is tough), but there's no way Leinart leads them to a bye. Not with the Patriots and the AFC North teams all looming.

Who has the best odds of nabbing that #1 seed? Would you believe the Patriots? Here are the quarterbacks they very well could face through the end of the regular season: Tyler Palko, Vince Young (if Mike Vick's broken ribs don't heal enough in 1.5 weeks), Curtis Painter/Dan Orlovsky (it doesn't matter), Rex Grossman/John Beck, Tim Tebow (singularly ill-equipped to take advantage of what the Patriots defense cannot do well), Matt Moore, and Ryan Fitzpatrick. At best, there are 2 real quarterbacks on their schedule, and who knows what state Buffalo will be in come week 17.

A year after the Seahawks won their division with a 7-9 record, could history repeat itself a year later? In the AFC West, it's possible. Kansas City is done, given that they will start Tyler Palko in their final 6 games. One would think Denver will eventually fall off as teams get more and more tape on the wishTebowne offense. San Diego is a mess (whither Phillip Rivers), and that leaves Oakland, and the random Carson Palmer drive generator. I think Oakland gets at least to .500 (they have games against Minnesota, Miami, and Kansas City left), but I also believe their week 17 game with San Diego will decide this division.

Key Games this week:
NY Jets at Denver - The Jets haven't been stout against the run this season, and on a short week it will be hard to have them ready for the wishTebowne offense.
Cincinnati at Baltimore - Cincy has had Baltimore's number the past 2 seasons. It really depends on which Baltimore, and more specifically, which Joe Flacco shows up.
Kansas City at New England - Tyler Palko is starting. I don't care how bad New England's pass defense is, this game will be over by halftime.

NFL, Week 10

Thoughts on week 10 as I (hopefully) oversee a fantasy football victory over my wife:

- Kansas City, you have been Tebowed. And this was a complete Tebowing, unlike the previous couple of wins. Two completions. For the entire game! And not only did the Broncos win, they never trailed in the game. I know the single wing offense is unusual in the NFL, especially today's NFL, where passing is king, but if there's absolutely no threat of the pass consistently beating you, how can you let a team beat you like this?

- Maybe Mike Vick did break 2 ribs a couple of plays into the game on Sunday. And yes, he was without his top 2 wideouts for most of the game. But that is still no excuse for being outplayed by Fordham's own John Skelton. On its surface, the fact that Philly fans are always calling for the head of their coach, Andy Reid is easy to dismiss (after all, they are Philly fans, who hate everyone). Reid has had much success (aside from a Super Bowl title), but a) his clock management skills are non-existnet, and b) he refuses to use his running backs, even when they're very talented. LeSean McCoy has scored a touchdown in 8 straight games, he touched the ball 17 times in the game. Considering how badly Vick played, this is criminal underuse of one of his top assets. But perhaps his biggest sin this season, taking his OL coach and making him his defensive coordinator. Perhaps a real DC would have covered Larry Fitzgerald with one of his top CBs, and not a rookie safety on a critical play in the 4th quarter.

- And in week 10, the Indianapolis Colts officially were eliminated from the AFC South divisional race. How many times a game do you think Peyton Manning makes the Peyton Manning face while watching the current squad flail about helplessly?

- The biggest story of the day had to be Atlanta coach Mike Smith going for it on 4th and inches from his own 30 in overtime against the Saints. They ran a handoff to Michael Turner who lost yardage on the play and New Orelans kicked the winning field goal a few plays later.

First off, comparing this to Belichick's 4th and 2-gate a few years back isn't a good comparison. In that case, the Patriots win the game if they make it. In this case, making it would have left the Falcons 35-40 yards from a field goal attempt. Not the same thing.

My problem with this call is less about the call to go for it and more the play call. On a regular hand-off play, the hand-off typically occurs 5-7 yards behind the line of scrimmage. That means you're requiring the back to cover 5-7 yards to convert 4th and inches. If you want to go for this, why not sneak it? The more variables you add into these plays, the more things can go wrong. A QB sneak minimizes the potential for errors on the play. If you don't think you can pick it up on a sneak (maybe your QB is a wuss, or you don't trust your OLine to get the needed push, or you're scared of your QB getting hurt) then punt it. Either that, or go play action and try to get a big play out of the defense selling out on stopping the run. But a straight hand-off going for the middle of the field? Unimaginative and very risky for very little payoff. All in all, bad decision Mike Smith.

- I've often wondered why so many coaches try to keep their players on an even keel and keep them from getting too emotional. Sure it keeps things more consistent, but tapping into that emotion should allow players to reach heights they otherwise wouldn't. Well, the Baltimore Ravens are a perfect example of why not to feed off of emotion as a rule. Sometimes it works in the big matchups. But more often, it either leads to mistakes in big moments, or the team is totally flat when they can't get keyed up for the game. Baltimore didn't feel challenged by the Seahawks (and they shouldn't have been, the Seahawks are not good), and they ended the day -3 in turnovers, allowed Marshawn Lynch to get 100+ yards on the ground, and lost to Seattle 22-17. Consider, this team has swept Pittsburgh and beaten 7-3 Houston. They've also lost to Jacksonville and Seattle.

- The shine is officially off of Buffalo. There's no shame in losing to Dallas, but 44-7? Yikes.

- Finally, the Jets came up terribly short in their measuring stick game against the Patriots. New England has a terrible defense. Their mantra is to give up yards and hold the other team to field goals and let their offense outscore the other team. In losing to Pittsburgh and the Giants, they ran into teams that could throw it all over the field and attack New England's biggest weakness: pass defense, and do so in a way to limit Tom Brady's chances on offense. The Jets can't control the ball throwing it 40+ times a game. Mark Sanchez isn't that player (he was way overdrafted at 5 overall). When they fell behind by 14 in the second half, they were done. They're not going to come back against good teams with their "Ground 'n Pound" offense. In order to win like that, their defense has to be outstanding. Like 2000 Ravens outstanding. Or 2011 Packers offense outstanding. Short of that, it's not going to work. For the record, this is the problem the 2010-11 Patriots run into, only reversed).

Suck for Luck Picture, Week 9

Current NFL Draft Order

Rk	Team	W	L	T	Pct	SOS	SOV
1	Indianapolis	0	9	0	.000	.587	.000
2	Miami	1	7	0	.125	.554	.500
3	St. Louis	1	7	0	.125	.585	.667
4	Arizona	2	6	0	.250	.431	.188
5	Carolina	2	6	0	.250	.508	.313
6	Minnesota	2	6	0	.250	.547	.250
7	Seattle	2	6	0	.250	.600	.500
8	Jacksonville	2	6	0	.250	.612	.625
9	Cleveland	3	5	0	.375	.455	.120
10	Washington	3	5	0	.375	.469	.375
11	Philadelphia	3	5	0	.375	.563	.333
12	Denver	3	5	0	.375	.578	.458

For those of you who don't know, the tiebreaker for draft position is strength of schedule (lower SOS gets the higher pick in round 1).

Miami plays Washington this week, a team that is absolutely reeling. If the Dolphins win that game, then I don't see any way Indianapolis doesn't get the Luck pick, because St. Louis has too many games against the NFC West to not win at least one more.

When you leave your season in the hands of Curtis Painter and Dan Orlovsky, you can't really be surprised with any level of futility, even historic ones. But really, this season goes to show one thing above all: Bill Polian (respected NFL front office exec) has butchered this team, and only Peyton Manning was able to hide the many flaws. That Manning would be the difference between a 10-win season and a 4 win season. But 0 wins?

Incidentally, with all the talk about Manning wanting to come back and play this season, Indy could become the first team in NFL history to give up on both a perfect season (2 years ago, when they brought in Curtis Painter in the second half of game 15 against the Jets) and a winless one (if they allow Manning to play in December, they'll win at least one).

It doesn't affect draft position, but the Cardinals and the Browns are even worse than they look on paper, their strengths of victory are atrocious. As a Seahawks fan, that's quite embarrassing, given the Seahawks are 1/3 of that awful SOV for the Browns, having lost to them 6-3. The game was even worse to watch than you think. Believe me.

Pitiful State University

It's not enough.

The AD has been forced out. The VP has been forced out. The president is being given the ultimatum (resign or be terminated) and will be gone shortly. All three failed as human beings, and as part of the education system when they failed to inform the authorities back in 2002 about Sandusky. All three deserve to be terminated for their failures.

Joe Paterno has agreed to retire effective at the end of the season.

That's. Not. Good. Enough.

Paterno hasn't held onto his head coaching duties for 46 years by not asserting control over the entire program. If you ask someone who knows PSU athletics, they'll tell you nothing happens there without Paterno's knowledge and blessing. That makes him all the more culpable in his failure to report Sandusky when his graduate assistant told him what he saw Sandusky doing in PSU's facilities. Paterno chose his kingdom over an innocent child.

And by doing so, he chose his kingdom over many more innocent children - all of the ones Sandusky has abused since 2002. Their ruined childhoods, their innocence, their abilities to lead normal lives. All of these PSU power brokers have that on their hands.

There are many bad things Paterno could have covered up where you could see both sides of the coin. Where he would still be wrong, but one could understand his thought process. In those cases, letting him finish out the season and then stumble off into the sunset would be fine. But this is about children. Protecting children. From monsters. Paterno has kids. He has grandkids. And he has spent his whole life around young adults trying to help mold them into men. That makes his silence and circling of the wagons all the more unforgivable. Whether they can touch him legally or not is irrelevant. Paterno failed morally. He failed as a human being.

By not terminating Paterno immeidately, the school is continuing to circle the wagons. To think about their turf, their empire, over the victims of this horrible situation. They're thinking of BCS bowl berths, and the program, over innocents who fell victim to a true monster. By letting Paterno ride off into the sunset, career NCAA victory record in hand, they're giving him his golden parachute. He doesn't deserve that. Every day PSU lets him continue dictating the terms is another day of failing their students, their alumni, their neighbors.

Take a stand, Penn State. Clean house. Focus on healing those who were wronged. Worry not about yourselves, but be an example of doing what is right, even at cost to yourself.

Give Joe Paterno the same choice you gave your president. Resign, Joe, or be fired.

NFC Playoff Picture, Week 9

NFC Playoff Picture

Rk	Team	W	L	T	Pct	Div	Conf
1	Green Bay	8	0	0	1.000	2-0	6-0
2	San Francisco	7	1	0	.875	1-0	5-1
3	New York Giants	6	2	0	.750	1-1	3-2
4	New Orleans	6	3	0	.667	2-1	3-3
5	Detroit	6	2	0	.750	2-0	4-2
6	Chicago	5	3	0	.625	1-2	5-3
-	Atlanta	5	3	0	.625	1-1	4-3
-	Dallas	4	4	0	.500	1-1	4-2
-	Tampa Bay	4	4	0	.500	2-1	3-4
-	Philadelphia	3	5	0	.375	2-1	3-4
-	Washington	3	5	0	.375	1-2	3-4

Lots of teams look like powerhouses when you take a look at the NFC Playoff Picture, but look a little closer, and cracks start to appear.

Green Bay has no defense. San Francisco still starts Alex Smith at quarterback (though their ability to go to the eastern time zone and get wins is impressive). The Giants are still maddeningly inconsistent (they lost to Seattle at home, yeah, that Seattle team, starting Tarvaris Jackson at quarterback). New Orleans lost to the Rams. Detroit can't run or stop the run (less important than anyone over 50 would have you believe, but they are really bad at both. And Chicago's OLine is (cue Charles Barkley) TURRRRR-IBLE, just TURRRR-IBLE.

When any of these teams are on, they look legitimately unbeatable. But each has an obvious weakness that could easily trip them up in the single game elimination that is the NFL playoffs.

If you're looking for the next Green Bay (the 2010 version, the one that is flirting with missing the postseason altogether but no one wants to see them make it), right now I'd look hard at Atlanta. Julio Jones is finally making everyone look at that draft day trade a little more closely, and the offense is finding its rhythm. It won't be anything like the Green Bay offense when it gets untracked, but unlike last year, where Atlanta was simply consistent, and wore down teams on their way to the #1 seed, this year they look capable of playing B+/A- ball, instead of solid B ball. Not as well equipped for the 16 game season, but better able to ride a hot streak through the postseason.

Key games this week:
New Orleans at Atlanta - Which Saints team shows up? The one that lost to Tampa and the Rams? Or the one that ran up 40+ on Houston and 60+ on the Whiteflags...err, the Colts. If Atlanta can get out to a lead off the bat, they will give the Saints serious problems with their running game and ability to keep the defense honest through the air.
New York Giants at San Francisco - This smells like a classic Giants letdown game. They just had a huge comeback win over the Patriots, and they have to be feeling pretty good about themselves. That's usually the time when they get complacent and submit a stinker. Two things may save them: 1) It's an away game (they seem less likely to take a game for granted away from home, and 2) The 49ers are 7-1, which should get the G-men's attention.
Detroit at Chicago - No idea what to make of this game. Detroit was riding high the last time these two teams played. In the midst of their undefeated start and first Motown MNF game in 26 years (give or take, I don't feel like looking it up). Now they're still 6-2, but the momentum is gone. The Bears are riding the wave now. Either Detroit has patched the holes in its run defense, or I see the Bears winning easy, and some shreds of panic starting to creep into the minds of the Detroit faithful.