Friday, January 6, 2017

NFL Picks, Wild Card Round

Home teams in CAPS.

Oakland at HOUSTON (-3.5)

Team
Oakland Raiders
Houston Texans
Record
12-4
5th
9-7
4th
Record vs Playoff Teams
1-3
10
2-3
8
Reg. Season
Rank
Reg. Season
Rank
Efficiency Statistics
Total
1.04
17
-5.33
26
Rush YPC
4.4
10
4.1
18
Def YPC
4.5
27
4.0
14
Pass YPA
6.9
20
5.9
32
Def YPA
7.6
32
6.2
4
Total
-0.8
28
-0.2
25
Takeaways
30
2
17
27
Giveaways
14
4
24
19
Big Plays For
77
15
65
26
Big Plays Vs
79
22
67
8
Differential
14
7
-9
22
Points Scored
2.14
13
1.51
29
Points Allowed
2.03
16
1.77
8
Differential
0.11
14
-0.26
26
3rd Down/ Red Zone
3rd Down For
38.1%
17
37.3%
22
3rd Down Against
39.4%
16
38.5%
11
3D Differential
-0.013
21
-0.012
20
Red Zone For
57.14%
14
40.91%
31
Red Zone Against
57.89%
24
52.27%
8
DVOA
Offense
12.20%
7
-21.40%
30
Defense
4.90%
23
-6.90%
7
Special Teams
1.10%
11
-7.00%
32
Total
8.40%
11
-21.50%
29
Weighted Total
5.30%
13
-17.70%
27

The first game of the playoffs also doubles as the worst game of the playoffs (as is the case pretty much every year now). It also may be the most Ryan Lindley game of all time. Houston is back to Brock Osweiler again after savior new-starter Tom Savage grabbed the starting job in week 15, only to suffer a concussion in week 17 and be ruled out for tomorrow's game. Oakland is now down to their third string quarterback, Connor Cook, as both Derek Carr and Matt McGloin are out with injuries.

By the numbers above, this looks like a clear win for Oakland, except that pretty much all of those numbers came with Derek Carr under center. And the Raiders were a very offensive-leaning team. The defense has Khalil Mack, and a very good pass rush, but that's about it. Of course, Houston's offense seems incapable of taking advantage of the Raiders' weak defense, so perhaps this is a moot point.

This game really comes down to taking the known bad quarterback with a weak offense and strong defense, or the complete unknown quarterback with the strong offense and weak defense. To boil it down even further, this game comes down to whether Osweiler can avoid turnovers. These two teams are pretty even in yards per play differential and big play differential, but the Raiders are much better at both generating and preventing turnovers.

It's hard to like either option, but I'm going to take the Texans, as they have a full season's wortth of work to know how to put Osweiler in the best possible position to be successful, while Oakland is scrambling to figure out how best to use Cook.

The pick: Texans 19, Raiders 13 (HOUSTON -3.5)

Detroit at SEATTLE (-8)

Team
Detroit Lions
Seattle Seahawks
Record
9-7
6th
10-5-1
3rd
Record vs Playoff Teams
0-5
12
3-1
2
Reg. Season
Rank
Reg. Season
Rank
Efficiency Statistics
Total
-4.81
25
5.73
9
Rush YPC
3.7
27
3.9
25
Def YPC
4.4
23
3.4
1
Pass YPA
7.3
14
7.8
5
Def YPA
7.2
25
6.7
16
Total
-0.6
27
1.6
4
Takeaways
14
29
19
22
Giveaways
15
5
18
11
Big Plays For
64
27
77
15
Big Plays Vs
72
14
68
10
Differential
-9
22
10
9
Points Scored
2.22
10
1.91
19
Points Allowed
2.22
22
1.59
4
Differential
0.00
19
0.32
6
3rd Down/ Red Zone
3rd Down For
42.6%
8
38.2%
16
3rd Down Against
45.5%
31
38.7%
12
3D Differential
-2.90%
27
-0.50%
16
Red Zone For
54.17%
17
46.43%
27
Red Zone Against
67.92%
30
56.52%
20
DVOA
Offense
-1.00%
15
-2.70%
17
Defense
20.40%
32
-10.90%
5
Special Teams
3.70%
6
0.50%
13
Total
-17.70%
27
8.70%
9
Weighted Total
-19.30%
29
4.70%
14

On paper the line of Seattle -8 looks very justified. The Lions have been propped up by their ability to stay on the field for long sustained drives, and some great play and luck in the 4th quarter of close games. Detroit trailed in the 4th quarter of 15 out of their 16 games and they made the playoffs! They also were 0-5 against playoff teams and ended the season on a 3-game skid. Oh, and Matt Stafford hurt his finger a month ago and hasn't been the same since. Plus, Seattle has never lost their first playoff game under Carroll in 5 tries. Easy Seattle pick, right?

Well, no. The Seahawks are at home, and they are much tougher there, but while Seattle didn't lose their final three games, they did finish 3-3, and they haven't looked impressive since their Sunday night demolition of the Panthers. The Seahawks' mainstay strength of recent years, their pass defense, is unrecognizable without Earl Thomas, and you might as well shake a magic 8-ball each week to try and figure out if that unit will show up. Is that enough to doom them against the Lions? No. But it does mean that I don't trust them to cover an 8-point spread against anyone in the playoff field.

The pick: Seahawks 27, Lions 20 (Detroit +8) 


Miami at PITTSBURGH (-10)

Team
Miami Dolphins
Pittsburgh Steelers
Record
10-6
6th
11-5
3rd
Record vs Playoff Teams
1-3
10
2-3
8

Reg. Season
Rank
Reg. Season
Rank
Efficiency Statistics
Total
1.09
16
7.43
6
Rush YPC
4.5
8
4.3
15
Def YPC
4.8
31
4.3
18
Pass YPA
7.8
7
7.3
13
Def YPA
6.6
13
6.6
14
Total
0.9
8
0.7
11
Takeaways
25
11
23
15
Giveaways
23
17
18
11
Big Plays For
89
5
88
7
Big Plays Vs
91
29
70
11
Differential
0
16
23
5
Points Scored
1.93
17
2.19
12
Points Allowed
1.96
14
1.85
12
Differential
-0.03
21
0.34
5
3rd Down/ Red Zone
3rd Down For
36.7%
25
41.1%
12
3rd Down Against
36.2%
4
41.1%
23
3D Differential
0.005
12
0.000
15
Red Zone For
55.32%
15
59.18%
12
Red Zone Against
56.86%
21
45.61%
4
DVOA
Offense
0.90%
14
11.10%
8
Defense
1.50%
19
-4.70%
11
Special Teams
1.00%
12
0.00%
16
Total
0.40%
17
15.80%
5
Weighted Total
4.20%
16
20.00%
3

This is another game that looks like a clear winner for the favorite at first glance. Pittsburgh is the better team, though the Dolphins stomped the Steelers earlier in the season 30-15. In that game, Dolphins running back Jay Ajayi romped for over 200 yards and Ben Roethlisberger threw multiple interceptions. Unfortunately, both of the interceptors are out of this game with injury, as is starting cornerback Byron Maxwell. Oh, and the Dolphins are down to their backup quarterback too, Matt Moore. Moore isn't your typical no-hoper backup (he has 14 wins in his NFL career and a better than .500 winning percentage), but he is a backup.

The biggest red flag for me for the Dolphins' chances is their YPC against. They give up 4.8 yards per carry to opposing running games, 2nd-worst in the NFL. And they're playing the Steelers with LeVeon Bell, perhaps the best back in the game.

That being said, I don't think Pittsburgh runs away with this one, and it's mostly because of Roethlisberger. He hasn't had a bad year, but he hasn't put many full games together.

The pick: Steelers 26, Dolphins 19 (Miami +10)

New York Giants at GREEN BAY (-4.5)

Team
New York Giants
Green Bay Packers
Record
11-5
5th
10-6
4th
Record vs Playoff Teams
3-2
4
5-2
3

Reg. Season
Rank
Reg. Season
Rank
Efficiency Statistics
Total
1.94
15
10.43
5
Rush YPC
3.5
30
4.5
7
Def YPC
3.6
3
4.0
13
Pass YPA
6.7
24
7.2
16
Def YPA
6.4
8
7.5
31
Total
0.2
19
0.2
20
Takeaways
25
12
25
13
Giveaways
27
24
17
8
Big Plays For
61
28
84
9
Big Plays Vs
61
3
72
14
Differential
-2
18
20
6
Points Scored
1.61
27
2.45
3
Points Allowed
1.44
2
2.26
25
Differential
0.17
10
0.19
9
3rd Down/ Red Zone
3rd Down For
35.6%
28
46.7%
2
3rd Down Against
35.3%
3
41.2%
24
3D Differential
0.30%
13
5.50%
4
Red Zone For
53.49%
19
60.61%
10
Red Zone Against
39.53%
1
62.22%
28
DVOA
Offense
-6.40%
22
16.40%
4
Defense
-15.00%
2
2.40%
20
Special Teams
0.20%
15
-1.80%
20
Total
8.80%
10
12.20%
7
Weighted Total
13.10%
6
12.90%
7

I'm not going to lie, I have high hopes for this game. Aaron Rodgers has rediscovered his mojo and is back to dicing up defenses. The Giants have one of the top defenses in the league. And it will be freezing in Wisconsin on Sunday late afternoon, which should help out the Giants defense.

As tends to happen, that will put pressure on the other units, each of which has some substantial holes in it. The Giants offense is not good, and is almost entirely dependent on Odell Beckham Jr. to make plays. The Packers defense is pretty woeful versus the pass.

Do you pick against the red-hot Aaron Rodgers? Or do you pick against Eli Manning and the resurgent defense? For me, the weather is tipping the scales.

The pick: Giants 23, Packers 21 (New York +4.5)

2015 Postseason: 5-5-1 (.500)
2014 Postseason: 6-5 (.545)
2013 Postseason: 4-5-2 (.455)
2012 Postseason: 6-4-1 (.591)
2011 Postseason: 6-5 (.545)

2016 Season: 122-125-9 (.494)
2016 Midweek Picks: 11-7 (.611)

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