NFL Picks, Week 4

THIS WEEK'S NFL TV MAPS: 506SPORTS

The majority of the country (in terms of map coverage, not necessarily number of households) will see 

Buffalo at New England (CBS, 1 PM)

Seattle at New York Jets  (FOX, 1PM)

Dallas at San Francisco (FOX, 4:25 PM)

The entire country will see 

Indianapolis "at" Jacksonville (CBS, 9:30 AM)

Kansas City at Pittsburgh (NBC, 8:30)

New York Giants at Minnesota (ESPN, 8:30 *Monday*)

Well, last week sucked. I was terrible. This week I will hopefully be less terrible. Let's get to it. Home teams in CAPS.

Indianapolis (-2.5) over "JACKSONVILLE"

Air quotes as this game is being played in England, which means the entire country gets to watch it. Unfortunately, the game involved the Jaguars in the NFL's quest to passive-aggressively convince the English that NFL football is a terrible product and they should definitely not ask for a team. The English invasion would actually make sense if that was the real reason for it. But attributing something that complex to commissioner Goodell...well, it just doesn't fit. 

Cleveland (+7.5) over WASHINGTON

Okay, I know, I know, Cleveland is bad, they're tanking, they're without their 2 best wide receivers, and they just got news that their top WR has chosen rehab over actually playing for the Browns starting next week. Oh, and they're tanking. Despite what their coach says, they are definitely tanking. So why pick the Browns to cover? Well, look at that line. We're really supergluing the Kirk Cousins bandwagon back together because they won 1 game? Against the Giants? That they desperately tried to derp away except Eli Manning wouldn't let them? Really? 

NEW ENGLAND (-6.5) over Buffalo

I'm incredibly disappointed that the Pats weren't forced into starting Julain Edelman at quarterback in this game, because a) it would be fun, b) it would be interesting, and c) it wouldn't drop their chances of winning at all. No Sammy Watkins, no threat of a Buffalo offense. Unless the Pats trade for Carson Palmer by Sunday and start him, they will breeze past the hobbled Bills. 

NEW YORK JETS (+2.5) over Seattle

Yes, I'm backing Fitzy McTurnover in this one. It's not really about the quarterback against this Seahawks defense. I mean, their only loss was to Case Keenum. No, my worry is a) this is a 1PM Eastern time game for a traveling west coast team, and despite the fact that it is incredibly stupid that this is still a thing in 2016 when teams travel on private jets and all, it's still a thing. Also, Seattle's offense came alive last week because they weren't playing a top-5 defensive line. This week they're facing perhaps the top defensive line in the league. 

Carolina (-3) over ATLANTA

I'm not buying on the Falcons. Their offense may be improved, but the defense is still bad because they still have no pass rush. 

CHICAGO (+3) over Detroit

Is Brian Hoyer a downgrade from Jay Cutler? You had to think about it didn't you? The Bears aren't going 0-16 (I don't think even the Browns are going 0-16), so they're going to have to win at least one game. This seems like a decent candidate. When Marvin Jones goes off for 250 yards and 3 touchdowns, you can thank me. 

HOUSTON (-4.5) over Tennessee

Tennessee isn't a good team, but they've quietly put together a pretty good defense. They're 4th in points per drive against. And Houston's offense is, well, you saw them last Thursday night, right? Let's just say the Osweiller bandwagon is teetering. But even without JJ Watt, their defense is still formidable, and I just don't see the Titans moving the ball enough to pull this one out. 

BALTIMORE (-3) over Oakland

I think this game will be close (because Oakland's defense is awful), and I trust the Ravens in a close game far more than I do the Raiders. It feels like the Raiders are going to spend this year learning how to win in this league, and perhaps emerge as a playoff contender next season. 

Denver (-3) over TAMPA BAY

Tampa Bay's defense has given up 24, 40, and 37 points in their 3 games. And the 37 points was to the Rams offense. That's awful. And their offense isn't making up for that against this Broncos defense. 

Dallas (-2) over SAN FRANCISCO

Dallas at least has something working offensively (the running game). And Dak Prescott is much better than Blaine Gabbert. 

SAN DIEGO (-4) over New Orleans

Neither of these teams plays any defense. That's kind of like, I hate both of these candidates. Well sure, both have their warts, but one is certifiably insane and should legitimately scare you. Saying they're both just as bad diminishes just how crazy one of them truly is. How does this relate to football? Calling the Saints defense bad, and saying someone else's defense is just as bad really undersells how rotten that unit really is. 

ARIZONA (-8) over Los Angeles

As long as Palmer doesn't throw multiple interceptions again, there will be plays to be made behind this Rams front seven. Arizona has done a better job of not being overwhelmed by the Rams defensive front than Seattle has, I expect that to continue. 

PITTSBURGH (-5) over Kansas City

The Steelers have put up some inexplicable stinkers in the last few years, but they tend to bounce back the next week. I'm still in on Pittsburgh as the clear #2 team in the AFC (behind the Patriots, with the Broncos slowly but surely narrowing the gap from their #3 perch), but to stay there they need to put away this limited playoff contender. 

MINNESOTA (-5) over New York Giants

Eli Manning against that defense? Yikes. 

NFL Power Poll, Week 3

Rank	Team	Record	Score	Last Score	Difference
1	San Diego Chargers	1-2	29.40	39.13	-9.73
2	Carolina Panthers	1-2	23.96	33.20	-9.24
3	Philadelphia Eagles	3-0	22.97	7.65	15.33
4	Seattle Seahawks	2-1	22.39	3.33	19.06
5	New England Patriots	3-0	22.34	19.89	2.45
6	Dallas Cowboys	2-1	19.16	2.46	16.70
7	Denver Broncos	3-0	16.27	16.23	0.04
8	Green Bay Packers	2-1	16.21	20.19	-3.98
9	Pittsburgh Steelers	2-1	12.87	43.32	-30.45
10	Houston Texans	2-1	11.13	26.48	-15.35
11	Baltimore Ravens	3-0	9.02	15.68	-6.66
12	New York Giants	2-1	8.76	13.06	-4.29
13	Oakland Raiders	2-1	8.52	-7.16	15.69
14	Kansas City Chiefs	2-1	3.81	-8.08	11.89
15	Arizona Cardinals	1-2	2.81	20.59	-17.78
16	New York Jets	1-2	2.34	20.06	-17.72
17	Detroit Lions	1-2	0.71	4.46	-3.75
18	Atlanta Falcons	2-1	0.20	-2.89	3.08
19	Cleveland Browns	0-3	-4.52	-9.66	5.13
20	Minnesota Vikings	3-0	-4.71	4.80	-9.51
21	Buffalo Bills	1-2	-10.27	-31.84	21.57
22	Miami Dolphins	1-2	-11.68	-12.02	0.33
23	Tennessee Titans	1-2	-11.97	-0.75	-11.22
24	Tampa Bay Buccaneers	1-2	-13.26	-19.90	6.65
25	San Francisco 49ers	1-2	-13.26	8.31	-21.57
26	Indianapolis Colts	1-2	-13.59	-21.47	7.88
27	Cincinnati Bengals	1-2	-13.62	-12.70	-0.91
28	New Orleans Saints	0-3	-13.83	-18.01	4.17
29	Washington Redskins	1-2	-23.08	-34.51	11.43
30	Los Angeles Rams	2-1	-23.96	-36.76	12.81
31	Chicago Bears	0-3	-28.35	-18.49	-9.86
32	Jacksonville Jaguars	0-3	-30.02	-51.15	21.14

Biggest 1 week risers: 
1. Buffalo (+21.57)

2. Jacksonville (+21.14)

3. Seattle (+19.06)

Biggest 1 week fallers: 

1. Pittsburgh (-30.45)

2. San Francisco (-21.57)

3. Arizona (-17.78)

The Forumla: 

I have very slightly tweaked my formula from last season. It remains broken down into four parts: 

Part 1: Yards per play. 

Here I take each teams yards per carry (rushing) and yards per attempt (passing) numbers and subtract from them the YPC and YPA their defense allows.  The theory being that, if Team A's offense is better per play than what their opponent's offense can muster against Team A's defense, Team A should be consistently better than their opponents over a full game's worth of plays (60 to 70 per game approximately). 

This part of the formula is unchanged from last year's model. 

Part 2: Toxic Differential
A better yards per play differential is helpful to a team's chances of winning, but just how often is an NFL team able to consistently drive down the field taking 5-8 yards at a time? You're essentially asking an NFL offense to put together 10-12 plays without more than 1-2 negative plays, be they incompletions, sacks, no-gainers, or worse: turnovers. It's doable, but it's really hard to do with any sort of consistency in a single game.

This is why coaches harp on turnovers so much. A turnover a) takes away an opponent's possession which decreases their chances of scoring more points, and b) can give your team a shorter field so you don't have to put together an 80+ yard drive to get points of your own. The problem with turnovers is you can't count on them. So much of what goes into a turnover is dependent on a) the other team and b) luck that relying on turnovers is a dangerous proposition.

So yes, turnovers are important. But there's something else that can make getting points in a drive much easier: big plays. If my offense can get 20 or 30 yards in a single play, that cuts out 4-6 plays of grinding, or 4-6 plays where something could go wrong. Now my offense only has to put 5-6 plays together on a drive where they also get a chunk play.

Brian Billick is credited with coming up with the toxic differential statistic. This adds your takeaways and big plays generated by your offense and subtracts your giveaways and the big plays given up by your defense. Again, the theory goes that teams with a better toxic differential will be better at turning drives into points and games into wins. Pete Carroll also bases his offensive and defensive identity around turnovers and big plays being the most important indicators for both sides of the ball.

Note: For this formula, a big play is considered a rushing play of 10+ yards or a passing play of 25+ yards.

I have tweaked the weight of this portion of the model again. In Year 1, this part was weighed too heavily. Last year I went too far the other way. This year I hope I have found some middle ground. 

Part 3: 3rd Down Efficiency
While turnovers and chunk plays make moving the ball down the field much easier, it is possible to crawl your way to points with long, sustained drives. However, you can't have a long, sustained drive without converting 3rd downs. If you're not hitting for explosive plays, you had better convert some 3rd downs, otherwise your drive will end in a punt, instead of points. 

This part of the formula is unchanged from last year's model. 

Part 4: Points Per Drive
What's the most important job of an NFL team? Score more points than your opponent. Rather than look simple points per game differential, I wanted to dig a little deeper and normalize the data a little further. Game-to-game the number of possessions can vary based on team tempo, weather coniditons, etc. So instead I looked at points per drive data for each team's offense and defense, and multiplied the difference by 10. Why 10? A typical NFL game has 12 possessions, but 1-2 of those come at a point where a team isn't really interested in scoring (maybe they get the ball with 12 seconds to go before halftime, or they get it with 3 minutes to go in the game up 14+ points already. 10 seemed like a good number of possessions per game where the end goal is to score points.

This part of the formula is unchanged from last year's model.