Thursday, September 8, 2016

NFL Picks, Week 1 - Kickoff Classic Edition

We made it!!!!

Football is back, baby. And so am I. At least for now. I don't know what the season will bring for my blog, but I do hope to put out some interesting (and maybe even entertaining) content over the course of the next 5+ months. Most of all, I hope to enjoy the upcoming season, and maybe help a few people out there enjoy it as well.

I eschewed doing a preview this year, but I believe the 6 best teams in the league are

  • New England Patriots
  • Pittsburgh Steelers
  • Arizona Cardinals
  • Carolina Panthers
  • Green Bay Packers
  • Seattle Seahawks
And that the Super Bowl LI Champion will come from that subset of teams.

So let's get to week 1, starting with the TV maps:

This week's NFL TV maps: 506sports

The majority of the country (in terms of map coverage, not necessarily number of households) will see 
Cincinnati at New York Jets (CBS, 1 PM)
Green Bay at Jacksonville (FOX, 1PM)
New York Giants at Dallas (FOX, 4:25 PM)

The entire country will see 
Carolina at Denver (NBC, 8:30 *Thursday*)
New England at Arizona (NBC, 8:30 *Sunday*)
Pittsburgh at Washington (ESPN, 7:00 *Monday*)
Los Angeles at San Francisco (ESPN, 10:20 *Monday*)

Note that there are 2 Monday Night games this week, per usual Week 1 custom. 

Carolina (-3) at DENVER
For the first time since 1970, last season's Super Bowl participants will meet again in Week 1, as this time, it's the very first game of the season. I admit I was very surprised this match-up was chosen to kickoff the season, as the NFL had a chance to do this 2 years ago as well, and chose NOT to match-up Seattle and Denver until week 3 on Sunday afternoon. Maybe it's because this Super Bowl was a little bit closer than that one? Maybe it's because there wasn't another match-up NBC/the NFL liked? Who knows? 

What I do know is this, I picked this game wrong back in February because I under-estimated the Denver defense. I did not think they could hold down the Panthers all game long, and not only did they do that, they essentially gave the offense both of its touchdowns (once literally, and once by setting them up in the red zone). 

It may look like I'm doing it again, but Denver's defense has lost some contributors (Malik Jackson is in Jacksonville, DeMarcus Ware is injured and will not play, ditto for Vance Walker). Their secondary is still elite and the front seven is still great, just not as deep. 

Can the offense pick up the slack for the defense? I mean, Peyton Manning was a pretty bad quarterback last season. Anyone else has to be better, right? Well, "anyone" is a former 7th round pick out of Northwestern who split time during his senior year. I don't like his odds going up agianst Carolina's front seven (albeit with a weak secondary behind them). Denver's not going to be able to run the ball tonight, and while their defense won't give up many points, I don't see Trevor Siemian leading the Broncos to many points either. 

It should be a low scoring defensive battle, but I say Carolina gets revenge on the team that denied them last year's title. 

The pick: Panthers 16, Broncos 10

Regular Season History:
2015 Season: 125-124-7 (.502)
2015 Midweek Picks: 10-7-1
2014 Season: 130-122-3 (.516)

2014 Midweek Picks: 13-5
2013 season: 115-134-7 (.463)
2013 Midweek Picks: 7-9-1
2012: 114-133-9 (.463)
2011: 51-55-4 (.482)

Postseason History:
2015 Postseason: 5-5-1 (.500)
2014 Postseason: 6-5 (.545) / Miles' 2014 Postseason: 6-5 (.545)
2013 Postseason: 4-5-2 (.455) / Miles' 2013 Postseason: 6-3-2 (.550)
2012 Postseason: 6-4-1
2011 Postseason: 6-5

No comments:

Post a Comment