Friday, January 27, 2012

Suck for Luck Picture, Championship Round


























































































































































































































































































































































Current NFL Draft Order
RkTeamWLTPctSOSConfDiv
1Indianapolis2140.125.5392-102-4
2St. Louis2140.125.5901-110-6
3Minnesota3130.188.5593-90-6
4Cleveland4120.250.5313-90-6
5Tampa Bay4120.250.5513-92-4
6Washington5110.313.4775-72-4
7Jacksonville5110.313.5004-83-3
8Carolina*6100.375.5043-92-4
9Miami*6100.375.5045-73-3
10Buffalo6100.375.5204-81-5
11Kansas City*790.438.5124-83-3
12Seattle*790.438.5126-63-3
13Arizona880.500.4697-54-2
14Dallas880.500.4736-62-4
15Philadelphia880.500.4886-65-1
16New York Jets880.500.5006-63-3
17Oakland880.500.5046-63-3
18San Diego880.500.5167-53-3
19Chicago880.500.5277-53-3
20Tennessee970.563.4617-53-3
21Cincinnati970.563.4926-62-4
22Atlanta1060.625.4807-53-3
23Detroit1060.625.5356-63-3
24Pittsburgh1240.750.4929-34-2
25Denver880.500.5206-63-3
26Houston1060.625.4538-44-2
27New Orleans1330.813.4419-35-1
28Green Bay1510.938.45712-06-0
29Baltimore1240.750.4779-36-0
30San Francisco1330.813.44910-25-1


The first tiebreaker for draft position is strength of schedule (lower SOS gets the higher pick in round 1).
After SOS, the next tie-breakers are conference record and division record. After that it comes down to a coin flip.
*-indicates 2 teams who require a coin flip to determine the order of their 1st round picks

With three weeks of the playoffs behind us, the order of the first 30 selections of the first round of the 2012 NFL Draft are now set in stone (though with trades the teams listed above may not all make their own picks in these slots, see below) minus the ties above that need coin flips, as indicated above.

Only 2 picks left up in the air: the 31st pick will go to the Super Bowl loser, and the 32nd pick will go to the Super Bowl winner.

Trades:
Oakland's first round pick (#17) belongs to Cincinnati as part of the 2011 Carson Palmer trade.
Atlanta's first round pick (#22) belongs to Cleveland as part of a 2011 draft-day trade.
New Orleans' first round pick (#27) belongs to New England as part of a 2011 draft-day trade.

Tuesday, January 24, 2012

Five Thoughts on the Conference Championship Games

Patriots 23, Ravens 20
1) Joe Flacco performed better than expected in this game, but I think he's actually getting too much credit for his performance. Yes, if not for Lee Evans, he would have led the Ravens to a late, 4th quarter win that got his team into the Super Bowl. But if he had seen Vonta Leach wide open 5 yards in front of him in the 3rd quarter instead of forcing a pass to a covered receiver in the end zone in the 3rd quarter, it may not have come to that. But more than any one specific play, it's that Joe Flacco is a statue in the pocket. If you get any pressure on him up the middle, he's done, because he moves in the pocket with the grace of a fish on land (or Drew Bledsoe). In contrast, Tom Brady would just slide step right or left, throw the ball downfield, and then complain to the referee because somebody breathed on him.

2) Give the Patriots defense credit, they made the plays when they needed to, and they stiffened in the red zone. Baltimore got their yards (Flacco had over 300), but they only got into the end zone twice. That allowed the offense to stay competitive, even on an off-day for Tom Brady. The last 2 seasons in the playoffs, when Brady had an off-day, the other 44 guys couldn't pick him up. In this game, they did just that.

3) Ravens offensive coordinator Cam Cameron's contract expired once the Ravens' season ended. If they're smart, they're already looking elsewhere for their 2012 OC. How many times did Cameron continue to run Ray Rice/Ricky Williams into the middle of the Patriots defense, even though it became clear early on that Vince Wilfork was the most dominant player on the field? With just over 3 minutes left in the game and down by 3, Baltimore had 3rd and 3 at the Pats 33. Gaining nothing would have left them with a 50 yard field goal, and we later learned that Baltimore didn't trust their kicker with 50+ yard attempts. So Cameron sets Flacco up in the shotgun, and runs a draw (slow developing play) right into the middle of the Pats D. If Ndamakong Suh is playing the middle, and you can expect him to blindly rush Flacco, the call makes sense. But with the disciplined (and, as already mentioned, on fire) Wilfork in the middle, this is a terrible idea. Add in the fact that even if they gain a yard or two, they're not sure about their kicker hitting the field goal, and the call becomes more idiotic. As it was, they lost 3 yards on the play, and then couldn't convert 4th and 6.

And another thing regarding Cam Cameron. When they lined up WR Anquan Boldin in the slot (a position he is very comfortable with), he would be guarded by Patriots WR Julian Edelman. If the teams had been reversed and Baltimore had done this to Belichick's team, he would have kept throwing to Boldin until Boldin had 13 catches for 350 yards and 4 TDs, or until the other team adjusted. Boldin had 8 targets all game, not bad, but not putting the screws to the giant mismatch either. Why not, Cam? If not the entire game, than at least on the last drive where you're running no huddle, and the Pats are stuck with the players and matchups they have. And this guy is one of the highest paid coordinators in the game. Really?

4) Tom Brady is outstanding at short yardage plays. Whether it's the 4th and goal leap to secure the TD, or just random 3rd and short plays during a game where he snaps it quick and pushes forward for 3-5 yards, catching the defense off-balance. What I don't understand is, why is Brady so far and away better at this stuff than anyone else? No one else executes these plays like Brady, and unlike reading a defense/making pinpoint throws under pressure, I just don't see why anyone (or at least anyone able to start at QB in the NFL) can't be good at this.

5) Apparently the Cundiff FG miss was somewhat rushed because there was confusion on the Ravens sideline as to whether it was 3rd or 4th down. Apparently, the scoreboard at Gilette had it wrong, and the confusion stemmed from the first down play where Anquan Boldin was tackled after a 9 yard gain but fumbled out of bounds a few yards ahead. Now, NFL rules state that in the last 2 minutes (it might be 5 minutes, I'm not sure) of a half, a recovered fumble cannot be advanced by anyone on the offense except for the fumbler himself. So even though the ball went out of bounds past the first down marker, it was spotted where he fumbled, short of the first down.

Putting all of that aside though, there are official down markers on both sidelines, so someone should have noticed. And, more importantly, the Ravens had a timeout. Let me say that again: the Ravens had a timeout in their pocket. If they were scrambling, call the timeout and get everyone settled. Why save the timeout? What does that gain you? Terrible job by John Harbaugh.

Bonus) Billy Cundiff made my 1-year old son cry. No, he's not a Ravens fan, but when everyone we were watching the game with shouted with joy when Cundiff blew it, my son was startled and not very happy with the sudden loud noises.

Giants 20, 49ers 17 (OT)
1) After convincing many that you could win a Super Bowl with Alex Smith as your quarterback, Alex Smith decided to make the case that, actually, no. No you can't win a Super Bowl with Alex Smith as your quarterback. It's not that Smith cost his team the game, or even was terrible, especially considering the conditions, but he looked nothing like the quarterback who led his team to the win over the Saints. Smith was turfing balls yards in front of receivers (or as Philly fans call it: McNabbing) many times, and missed a couple of open guys.

2) The Giants had 12 possessions in the second half and overtime. 10 ended in punts. The other two were on short fields thanks to one Kyle Williams. Williams, as you have probably heard by now, was San Francisco's backup punt returner, only returning kicks because Ted Ginn Jr. was injured in the Saints game and unable to play in this one. The upshot? San Francisco's defense is crazy good.

3) Two things confused me a bit on the Giants side. On offense, the Giants ran a lot of slow developing routes, even though it was clear in the second half that their line could not give Manning the time he needed for those routes to develop. On defense, the Giants gave Smith his outlets free on many occasions, despite the fact that he had struggled to complete passes to his receivers many times throughout the season, and even moreso in this game. The defensive strategy is more understandable, in that San Francisco's only offense was the big play, so New York tried to take that away. The offensive strategy? I don't really get it.

4) The Ahmad Bradshaw non-fumble was the correct call, but that's about as quick a whistle as I've seen on a forward progress play. I'd estimate that at least 80% of the time the whistle doesn't blow quickly enough to call the play dead before the fumble. In a postseason where the referees have been slow to blow their whistles (especially compared to the regular season), it was surprising, but San Francisco can't claim they were robbed on account of it.

5) San Francisco's offensive line really exceeded expectations. I expected something like the Thanksgiving night game against Baltimore (9 sacks of Alex Smith), as New York's defensive line is killing it these playoffs. Alex Smith was pressured often, but he was able to avoid large negative plays most of the night.

Sunday, January 22, 2012

NFL Picks, Conference Championships

For now, just the picks:

NEW ENGLAND (-7) over Baltimore

New York Giants (+2.5) over SAN FRANCISCO

Saturday, January 21, 2012

Congratulations Clint Dempsey

Today Dempsey became the first American to ever record a hat trick in the English Premier League.

A tremendous talent, and a tremendous grinder. Well done Clint!

Rams take a dump on their fans in St. Louis

The St. Louis Rams may not have totally alienated their season ticket holders, but they at least took a good first step in that direction.

How? The NFL announced that the Rams have agreed to play one of their 8 home games in London for the next 3 seasons. Their 2012 game in London will be against the New England Patriots.

Why do this? Rams majority owner Stan Kroenke is also the majority shareholder of Arsenal FC in England. The NFL is hoping to put a franchise in London one day, so anything that makes the people of England more excited about football (and you could easily argue that subjecting them to 3 Rams games in a row will have the opposite effect) is a boon for them.

Who gets screwed in all of this? The Rams fans. Not only is their team at a competitive disadvantage with respect to the rest of the league for 3 straight seasons (in playing 7 true home games while everyone else plays 8), but these fans are deprived of what is likely their last chance to see Tom Brady play in St. Louis as Brady isn't scheduled to go back to St. Louis until 2020.

For shame, Rams, it's not like you've given your fans much of anything the last 6 years, this is just adding insult to injury.

Friday, January 20, 2012

Suck for Luck, Divisional Round




































































































































































































































































































































Current NFL Draft Order
RkTeamWLTPctSOSConfDiv
1Indianapolis2140.125.5392-102-4
2St. Louis2140.125.5901-110-6
3Minnesota3130.188.5593-90-6
4Cleveland4120.250.5313-90-6
5Tampa Bay4120.250.5513-92-4
6Washington5110.313.4775-72-4
7Jacksonville5110.313.5004-83-3
8Carolina*6100.375.5043-92-4
9Miami*6100.375.5045-73-3
10Buffalo6100.375.5204-81-5
11Kansas City*790.438.5124-83-3
12Seattle*790.438.5126-63-3
13Arizona880.500.4697-54-2
14Dallas880.500.4736-62-4
15Philadelphia880.500.4886-65-1
16New York Jets880.500.5006-63-3
17Oakland880.500.5046-63-3
18San Diego880.500.5167-53-3
19Chicago880.500.5277-53-3
20Tennessee970.563.4617-53-3
21Cincinnati970.563.4926-62-4
22Atlanta1060.625.4807-53-3
23Detroit1060.625.5356-63-3
24Pittsburgh1240.750.4929-34-2
25Denver880.500.5206-63-3
26Houston1060.625.4538-44-2
27New Orleans1330.813.4419-35-1
28Green Bay1510.938.45712-06-0


The first tiebreaker for draft position is strength of schedule (lower SOS gets the higher pick in round 1).
After SOS, the next tie-breakers are conference record and division record. After that it comes down to a coin flip.
*-indicates 2 teams who require a coin flip to determine the order of their 1st round picks

With two weeks of the playoffs behind us, the order of the first 28 selections of the first round of the 2012 NFL Draft are now set in stone (though with trades the teams listed above may not all make their own picks in these slots, see below) minus the ties above that need coin flips, as indicated above.

The 29th and 30th picks will go to the teams that lose their respective conference championship games. The 31st pick will go to the Super Bowl loser, and the 32nd pick will go to the Super Bowl winner.

Trades:
Oakland's first round pick (#17) belongs to Cincinnati as part of the 2011 Carson Palmer trade.
Atlanta's first round pick (#22) belongs to Cleveland as part of a 2011 draft-day trade.
New Orleans' first round pick (#27) belongs to New England as part of a 2011 draft-day trade.

Monday, January 16, 2012

Divisional Round Thoughts

Three thoughts from each of this past weekend's games:

49ers 36, Saints 32
- I think it's possible to win a Super Bowl with Alex Smith as your quarterback. I would never have acknowledged that possibility before Saturday evening, but he had to take the 49ers down the field twice in the last 5 minutes, and he did it both times.
- It's good for Gregg Williams that his contract ran out at the end of the season. That spares him the humiliation of being fired after letting Alex Smith take his team down the field for touchdowns twice in the last 5 minutes. The second one was especialy egregious. The 49ers have wasted 40 seconds to get 15-20 yards, and you send two straight all-out blitzes, even though you have proven that you cannot cover Vernon Davis one-on-one, and Brett Swain almost just got behind your defense for a backbreaker. You sit back, and best case San Francisco gets to try a long field goal attempt.
- What an indictment of the Mike Nolan and Mike Singletary coaching regimes, that Jim Harbaugh was able to come and and not just achieve a winning record, not just win his division, but win a playoff game over a team that many had pegged as the best in the NFC entering the playoffs.
- (bonus) If the Saints never see the Pacific Coast again in January, it will be too soon. Between Beast Mode in Seattle last year in the first round and The Catch II in San Francisco this year, that's 2 years in a row the Saints lost a road game they were favored in to the NFC West division champion.

Patriots 45, Broncos 10
- The Patriots finally won a playoff game, and they barely had to break a sweat to do it.
- The Patriots haven't played a team that finished the season with a winning record since they lost to the Giants (at home) in week 9. In related news, they have won 9 straight, including Saturday night's blowout.
- I'm not sure even this allows John Elway to go into the 2012 season with anyone other than Tebow as his starting quarterback. In fairness to Tebow, he deserves the chance to show what he can do after a full offseason's work with the coaching staff, something he did not get last offseason.

Ravens 20, Texans 13
- Ugly, ugly, ugly game. This is why Ravens fans don't trust either quarterback Joe Flacco or offensive coordinator Cam Cameron. Flacco completed only 51.9% of his passes, and Cameron allowed him to throw it 27 times, including multiple times on their second-to-last drive (not counting the kneel down drive at the very end) which resulted in 2 incompletions and gave the Texans an extra chance at a tying drive they should never have had.
- The Texans had a heck of a season. If they can retain Wade Philips and keep Matt Schaub, Arian Foster, Andre Johnson, and Mario Williams healthy for a full season, they could make some serious noise next season.
- If Joe Flacco cannot complete greater than 65% of his passes next week against the Patriots and their pass (lack of) defense, it may be time to admit that he cannot get the Ravens over the hump.

Giants 37, Packers 20
- An absolutely embarassing performance put on by Green Bay's receivers/tight ends/backs and defensive backs. Giants receivers were running free, Hakeem Nicks must have been invisible, and the sheer number of drops was staggering.
- Eli Manning has arrived. It's funny to say that about a Super Bowl winning quarterback, but this season, and especially the last 4 games (2 regular season and 2 playoff) he has been outstanding. Whereas you could (and many did) make the argument that Eli was a supporting piece during the 2007 run, he is unquestioningly leading the charge this season.
- Green Bay has to fix their defense. Their lack of a pass rush all season was astounding when you compared it against their play down the stretch in 2010.

Finally, one last bit of trivia. In the AFC (but not the NFC) this season, the top 2 seeds will square off for a spot in the Super Bowl. In the 22 seasons (counting this one) the NFL has had a 6-team-per-conference playoff format, that has happened just 8 times (36.4%) in that conference, and the #1 seed is 4-3. In the NFC, it has happened 14 times (63.6%), and the #1 seed is 9-5.

Saturday, January 14, 2012

NFL Picks, Divisional Round

Okay, last week was a total train wreck. If not for the inability of Detroit’s defense to be even a speed bump against the New Orleans offense in the second half last Saturday night, I would have gone 0-4 on the weekend, which would have been rather embarrassing. Since I’m clearly not doing it correctly, I decided to look back to last year’s divisional round as an indicator for how these games will go this weekend:

New Orleans (-4) over SAN FRANCISCO
Last year’s game this reminds me of: Green Bay at Atlanta
Tell me if this sounds familiar: one team is coming off of a first-round win and has been an offensive juggernaut to close out the regular season. The other team achieved a first-round bye thanks to a great regular season, but is a significantly more limited team that needs to hold down the juggernaut to have a chance of winning this game at home.

I said last year that Atlanta wouldn’t give you anything less than a B/B+ game, but also wouldn’t give you anything more than that either, whereas Green Bay could give you anything from an A game to a C- one. New Orleans has been playing at A/A+ level for 8 solid weeks, but they do have D games in them away from home (see their losses to Tampa Bay and St. Louis). San Francisco is a limited team, but they’re good enough defensively to limit and frustrate their opponents and squeeze out wins in the end.

The problem is this puts a ton of pressure on the steady team, and a single mistake can turn the game into a rout. Last year that mistake was Matt Ryan’s pick-6 at the end of the first half. Atlanta simply couldn’t recover from that. San Francisco’s defense is miles better than Detroit’s, but at some point Alex Smith is going to have to make some plays to keep pace with the Saints, and he will not be equal to the task.

NEW ENGLAND (-13.5) over Denver
Last year’s game this reminds me of: Seattle at Chicago
One team is coming off of a shocking, emotional win at home over a heavy favorite, while the other is a team with a great record, but is visibly flawed and thus people aren’t talking them up as true contenders as much as one would expect. The key difference here is last year Seattle had defeated the Bears in Chicago during the season, while Denver hosted the Patriots already, and got blown out. The other difference, of course, being Mr. Tebow.

What happened last year to Seattle is essentially, they had won their Super Bowl the week prior. Beating New Orleans was so shockingly beautiful that they simply didn’t have it in them to reach that level again, let alone exceed it. Instead, they fattened up on clips of the 67-yard touchdown play that put the game away (Marshawn Lynch and Beastquake), and only Matt Hasselbeck came out ready to play the divisional round game. By the time Seattle had found their footing, they were down 28-0.

Every report out of Denver this week has the Broncos still riding high, and everywhere you go you see highlights of the 80-yard touchdown pass to Demariyus Thomas that won the game, and I see the Broncos suffering the same problems as last year’s Seahawks, by the time they get going, the Patriots will be up 2 or 3 scores and running on all cylinders.

Houston (+7.5) over BALTIMORE
Last year’s game this reminds me of: New York Jets at New England
Last year the Jets knocked off the Colts at the last minute, and nobody gave them a chance against the Patriots. Conventional wisdom said that no one had held down Tom Brady to that point, and you certainly weren’t going to bet on Sanchez over Brady with a Belichick defense. Of course, we hadn’t fully realized yet how devoid of talent the New England defense was (and is) and the Jets crafted a masterful game plan to hold down Brady and sneak off with the win.

This isn’t a perfect parallel, but few people believe in Houston because why would you trust TJ Yates against the Baltimore defense? Add in Baltimore (like New England last year) was a perfect 8-0 at home, and this seems like another occasion to back the favorite.

I admit, I don’t see Baltimore losing this game, but I also don’t see them running away from Houston either. Houston is (thanks to their injuries at QB) in a similar mold to Baltimore: great running game, great defense, enough from the passing game. Baltimore is better at it, but Houston actually defends the pass better than the Ravens. I see lots of field goals with the occasional touchdown, but neither team breaking out offensively.

New York Giants (+7.5) over GREEN BAY
Last year’s game this reminds me of: Baltimore at Pittsburgh
Last year the Ravens split their games with Pittsburgh, losing a close game to the Steelers late in the season. That made many believe they could take the next step when they drew Pittsburgh in the divisional round. And for a while, those people looked brilliant, as the Ravens jumped out to a 14-point halftime lead. But then the Ravens started making Ravens-ish mistakes: penalties, turnovers in big moments, brainfarts. Pittsburgh made some adjustments to counter their pass rush, and all of a sudden started putting up points.

The Giants came very close to upsetting the Packers late in the season, and they have the weapons to neutralize the dynamic Packer offense, but they were a 9-7 team for a reason. They have flaws, and they make some big mistakes (drops, turnovers, penalties). Last week the Falcons made most of the mistakes, but at the level Rodgers is playing at right now, you can’t expect similar results this week, and if the Giants’ pass rush is neutralized, they don’t cover well at all, which is death against Green Bay.

That being said, Eli Manning has had too good of a season to go down without a fight, and I say he at least gets it back within a one-score game late in the fourth, but that the Packers pull it out in the end.

Postseason: 1-3
Regular Season: 51-55-4 (.482)

Thursday, January 12, 2012

Suck for Luck Picture, Wild Card Round























































































































































































































































































Current NFL Draft Order
RkTeamWLTPctSOSConfDiv
1Indianapolis2140.125.5392-102-4
2St. Louis2140.125.5901-110-6
3Minnesota3130.188.5593-90-6
4Cleveland4120.250.5313-90-6
5Tampa Bay4120.250.5513-92-4
6Washington5110.313.4775-72-4
7Jacksonville5110.313.5004-83-3
8Carolina*6100.375.5043-92-4
9Miami*6100.375.5045-73-3
10Buffalo6100.375.5204-81-5
11Kansas City*790.438.5124-83-3
12Seattle*790.438.5126-63-3
13Arizona880.500.4697-54-2
14Dallas880.500.4736-62-4
15Philadelphia880.500.4886-65-1
16New York Jets880.500.5006-63-3
17Oakland880.500.5046-63-3
18San Diego880.500.5167-53-3
19Chicago880.500.5277-53-3
20Tennessee970.563.4617-53-3
21Cincinnati970.563.4926-62-4
22Atlanta1060.625.4807-53-3
23Detroit1060.625.5356-63-3
24Pittsburgh1240.750.4929-34-2


The first tiebreaker for draft position is strength of schedule (lower SOS gets the higher pick in round 1).
After SOS, the next tie-breakers are conference record and division record. After that it comes down to a coin flip.
*-indicates 2 teams who require a coin flip to determine the order of their 1st round picks

Week one week of the playoffs behind us, the order of the first 24 selections of the first round of the 2012 NFL Draft are now set in stone (though with trades the teams listed above may not all make their own picks in these slots, see below) minus the ties above that need coin flips, as indicated above.

The 25th-28th picks will go to the teams that lose in the divisional round (ordered by record, strength-of-schedule, and conference/division record just like the first 20 picks). The 29th and 30th picks will go to the teams that lose their respective conference championship games. The 31st pick will go to the Super Bowl loser, and the 32nd pick will go to the Super Bowl winner.

Trades:
Oakland's first round pick (#17) belongs to Cincinnati as part of the 2011 Carson Palmer trade.
Atlanta's first round pick (#22) belongs to Cleveland as part of a 2011 draft-day trade.
New Orleans' first round pick (#TBD) belongs to New England as part of a 2011 draft-day trade.

Saturday, January 7, 2012

NFL Picks, Wild Card Round

I was hoping to put together a nice post for the first round of playoff picks, but I was foiled by a couple of things. One is that Friday was my birthday, and my 30th birthday, so I was busy enjoying that day with my wife and almost one year-old son. The second is that I was called for jury duty on Tuesday. Normally jury duty is two days or 1 trial. Well, on Wednesday I was put on a trial, and that trial is still going on. That means there's not much I can say, but I will say this, nothing in our court system moves at anything resembling a quick pace. I'm not saying it could be much different, I'm just saying it's easily the first thing you notice as a part of it.

Onto the picks:

Cincinnati (+4) over HOUSTON
The Bengals were 0-4 against the Steelers and Ravens, so while their run to the playoffs is a good story, the Bengals are not a true contender, not yet. And if this were the Houston team from the first half of the season, they would wipe the floor with these Bengals. But this isn't that Houston team. That Houston team was not quarterbacked by TJ Yates. Given the Texans' strong running game, I could overlook the TJ Yates issue, but Cincinnati made the playoffs on the backs of their top-10 defense. I say the Bengals take away Houston's running game, and Yates doesn't have enough heroics in him to recreate their week 14 thriller win.

NEW ORLEANS (-10.5) over Detroit
Detroit can put up points with the Saints, but in that dome, the pressure to be perfect offensively (meaning, get points out of every drive) is simply too much. Yes Detroit played them closer in week 13 than the score would indicate, but add in the sour taste in the Saints' mouths from last year's playoff loss in Seattle and I think the Saints make no doubt about this game.

Atlanta (+3) over NEW YORK GIANTS
Eli Manning's dirty little (not so) secret is that he performs better on the road than at home in December/January. Now, Dallas was too beat up and mentally weak to take advantage of that in week 17's play-in game. Atlanta is neither of those things. This game will come down to Atlanta's ability to neutralize the Giants' pass rush and Victor Cruz. It says here they do enough to hold each at bay to walk out of New Jersey with the win.

Pittsburgh (-8.5) over DENVER
Tebow against that defense, given what we've seen from him these last few weeks is simply not fair, and Roethlisberger's playing, so the Steeler offense will put up enough points to cover.

Monday, January 2, 2012

Suck for Luck Picture, Week 17












































































































































































































































Current NFL Draft Order
RkTeamWLTPctSOSConfDiv
1Indianapolis2140.125.5392-102-4
2St. Louis2140.125.5901-110-6
3Minnesota3130.188.5593-90-6
4Cleveland4120.250.5313-90-6
5Tampa Bay4120.250.5513-92-4
6Washington5110.313.4775-72-4
7Jacksonville5110.313.5004-83-3
8Carolina*6100.375.5043-92-4
9Miami*6100.375.5045-73-3
10Buffalo6100.375.5204-81-5
11Kansas City*790.438.5124-83-3
12Seattle*790.438.5126-63-3
13Arizona880.500.4697-54-2
14Dallas880.500.4736-62-4
15Philadelphia880.500.4886-65-1
16New York Jets880.500.5006-63-3
17Oakland880.500.5046-63-3
18San Diego880.500.5167-53-3
19Chicago880.500.5277-53-3
20Tennessee970.563.4617-53-3


The first tiebreaker for draft position is strength of schedule (lower SOS gets the higher pick in round 1).
After SOS, the next tie-breakers are conference record and division record. After that it comes down to a coin flip.
*-indicates 2 teams who require a coin flip to determine the order of their 1st round picks

The order of the first 20 selections of the first round of the 2012 NFL Draft are now set in stone (though with trades the teams listed above may not all make their own picks in these slots) minus the ties above that need coin flips, as indicated above. The order for the final 12 selections of the first round will be known after the playoffs have been completed.

The 21st-24th picks will go to the losers of the 4 opening round games of these playoffs (ordered by record, strength-of-schedule, and conference/division record just like the first 20 picks. The 25th-28th picks will go to the teams that lose in the divisional round. The 29th and 30th picks will go to the teams that lose their respective conference championship games. The 31st pick will go to the Super Bowl loser, and the 32nd pick will go to the Super Bowl winner.

Trades:
Oakland's first round pick (#17) belongs to Cincinnati as part of the 2011 Carson Palmer trade.
Atlanta's first round pick (#TBD) belongs to Cleveland as part of a 2011 draft-day trade.
New Orleans' first round pick (#TBD) belongs to New England as part of a 2011 draft-day trade.

NFC Playoff Picture, Final











































































NFC Playoff Picture
RkTeamWLTPctDivConf
1c-Green Bay1510.9386-012-0
2z-San Francisco1330.8135-110-2
3y-New Orleans1330.8135-19-3
4y-New York Giants970.5633-35-7
5x-Atlanta1060.6253-37-5
6x-Detroit1060.6253-36-6


c –home field advantage, z - first round bye, y – division champion, x – playoff berth

San Francisco beats out New Orleans for the first round bye thanks to a better conference record than the Saints.

Atlanta edges out Detroit for the first wild card spot (and thus an opportunity to avoid the Saints in the first round) by virtue of their 23-16 win over the Lions in week 7.

So the games next weekend will be
(6) Detroit Lions at (3) New Orleans Saints
(5) Atlanta Falcons at (4) New York Giants

The weekend playoff schedule was announced, and I had the NFC games switched in my prediction earlier. The schedule is
Saturday at 4:30 (NBC) - Bengals at Texans
Saturday at 8:00 (NBC) - Lions at Saints
Sunday at 1:00 (FOX) - Falcons at Giants
Sunday at 4:30 (CBS) - Steelers at Broncos

Sunday, January 1, 2012

AFC Playoff Picture, Final





















































































AFC Playoff Picture
RkTeamWLTPctDivConf
1c-New England1330.8135-110-2
2z-Baltimore1240.7506-09-3
3y-Houston1060.6254-28-4
4y-Denver880.5003-36-6
5x-Pittsburgh1240.7504-29-3
6x-Cincinnati970.5632-46-6
OUTTennessee970.5633-37-5


c - home field advantage, z – first round bye, y – division champion, x – playoff berth

Baltimore edges out Pittsburgh for the AFC North division and first round bye thanks to their 2-0 record against the Steelers head-to-head.

Cincinnati edges out Tennessee for the final playoff spot thanks to their 24-17 win over the Titans back in week 9.

So the games next weekend will be
(6) Cincinnati Bengals at (3) Houston Texans
(5) Pittsburgh Steelers at (4) Denver Broncos

This should be announced at halftime tonight, but I would expect the weekend playoff schedule to be as follows:
Saturday at 4:30 (NBC) - Bengals at Texans
Saturday at 8:00 (NBC) - Falcons at Giants/Cowboys
Sunday at 1:00 (FOX) - Lions at Saints
Sunday at 4:30 (CBS) - Steelers at Broncos