NFL Picks, Week 16

Home team in CAPS

Miami (-3) over BUFFALO
After winning 4 out of their last 5 games (the lone exception being a home loss to the Panthers where Carolina had to drive down the field in the waning minutes of the 4th quarter, converting a 4th and 10 on the way), is Miami really going to blow it at Buffalo? With Thad Lewis starting at quarterback?

Well, that would be a fairly typical Miami December...no, no, no! Miami is playing well, playing smart, and playing to win (instead of not to lose). That's enough to beat a Buffalo team playing out the string.

CAROLINA (-3) over New Orleans
I'm in Missouri mode when it comes to New Orleans on the road. Show me you'll show up. Until then, I;m not putting any trust in you away from the Superdome.

Dallas (-3) over WASHINGTON
As bad as the Cowboys defense is (and it's putrid), the Redskins defense is worse. And after last week's meltdown against Green Bay, if DeMarco Murray doesn't get at least 25 carries this week, the entire offensive staff should be fired.

ST. LOUIS (-4.5) over Tampa Bay
I've read too many articles about Tampa Bay's terrible defensive schemes this season to take them in a game where their quarterback will be under duress for practically the entire 60 minutes.

PHILADELPHIA (-3) over Chicago
Both teams will put up yards. Both teams will put up points. One quarterback will add in a few turnovers. The other one will exit Sunday Night with a victory. If you don't know which is which, you've been living under a rock for Jay Cutler's entire career.

Cleveland (+2) over NEW YORK JETS 
Jason Campbell is the better bet at quarterback in this game. I will now take the next 20 minutes to weep for the state of humanity for writing those words un-ironically. The Browns win outright.

KANSAS CITY (-6.5) over Indianapolis
The Colts defense won't be able to do much better at slowing down Jamaal Charles. Kansas City will continue the parade of defensive players getting big hits on Andrew Luck.

Minnesota (+8) over CINCINNATI
The Vikings have gotten blown out precisely once in their last 7 games, and that was at Seattle. Oh, and they're getting Adrian Peterson back this week. And Cincinnati hasn't been impressive in over a month. The Bengals are 6-0 at home, so I'm going to stick with them to win the game. I just don't see them covering a spread that's greater than a touchdown.

HOUSTON (+10.5) over Denver
Denver wins, but I'm not picking them to cover anything above 7 until I see them do it without Welker and with this sieve they call a defense.

JACKSONVILLE (+5) over Tennessee
I was going to say Tennessee is too good to lose to the JV Jaguars, but remember, the Titans gave the Jaguars their first win. I remember it well, as it knocked my co-coach out of his Survivor pool. Now they face them again, coming off of a 3-game losing streak, on the road...and they're giving 5 points? Give me the Jaguars, and give me them winning outright.

SEATTLE (-10.5) over Arizona
On the one hand, I have "Seattle covers at home...almost always", on the other hand I have a frisky Cardinals team with a great defense that's quarterbacked by Carson Palmer. Hmmmm...

Wait, what does that fine print say?

that's quarterbacked by Carson Palmer

Yeah...I'll take Seattle.

DETROIT (-9) over New York Giants
I'll take Detroit bouncing back against an injury-depleted Giants team that's counting the days until this season is over.

Oakland (+10) over SAN DIEGO
This line seems too high. The Chargers will win, but that Thursday night win at Denver has over-inflated this spread.

GREEN BAY (-2.5) over Pittsburgh
Both teams will put up yards and points, I'm giving Green Bay the edge because the game is being played in Lambeau.

BALTIMORE (-2.5) over New England
The only unit in this game that I trust is the Baltimore defense. Everyone else is incredibly flawed. For that reason, as well as this column showing Baltimore has the 2nd best home field advantage in the league since 2002, I'm picking the Ravens.

SAN FRANCISCO (-12.5) over Atlanta
Atlanta is hopelessly outmatched from a talent perspective on both sides of the ball. Monday Night Football 2013 goes out with a dud.

2013 Midweek Picks: 7-9-1
Last week: 9-7 (.563)
2013 season: 105-112-7 (.484)