Tonight's midweek match-up pits together two NFC West foes who
a) Are each 2 games back of division leader Seattle (I had to throw this in there)
b) Are each coming off of very unimpressive losses
San Francisco lost at home to the Colts 27-7. But look a bit closer, and that score is a bit deceiving. The 49ers were within 6 points of the lead for the first 55+ minutes of the game. But even if the final score is a bit misleading, the message from it was not: San Francisco can be run on.
Game 1 (Green Bay): 19 rushes, 63 yards (3.3 ypc)
Game 2 (Seattle): 47 rushes, 172 yards (3.7 ypc)
Game 3 (Indianapolis): 40 rushes, 184 yards (4.6 ypc)
Keeping in mind that saying you held Green Bay's rushing game in check is like saying you weren't as crazy in your twenties as Linsdey Lohan, and that while 3.7 ypc might not be that impressive, the fact that Seattle and Indy each felt comfortable enough to run the ball 40+ times should have alarm bells going off in the Bay Area. Remember, this is a team that didn't allow its first rushing touchdown of the season until week 15 in 2011. This year they've allowed 6 rushing TDs through 3 games.
And we haven't even begun to talk about their offense. San Francisco has struggled to get their vaunted ground game going, instead asking Colin Kaepernick to carry them through their games. After dicing up Green Bay's pass defense (which might be about as good as their running game) in week 1, Kaepernick has seen his last two opponents take away his only real WR threat (Anquan Boldin) with press coverage, and his other options have done a terrible job getting separation. In sum, their offense looks like a hot mess right now.
But there is some hope. In the Colts game, Frank Gore rushed 11 times for 82 yards, or 7.5 yards per carry. The follow-up question then being, "Why did Frank Gore only run the ball 11 times?' Gore agrees, as reports had him yelling at the coaching staff during the game. Presumably, San Francisco will look at that game, realize they got too cute with their play-calling, and re-commit to their ground game.
So if San Francisco is a lesser team than the past two years, does this mean the Rams and 49ers are close enough for this Thursday game to swing the advantage to the Rams?
Not so fast. As I said above, the Rams are coming off a pretty disappointing week 3 themselves. They fell to the Cowboys on the road 31-7. And unlike the 49ers-Colts game, this final score is in no way misleading. St. Louis was down 2 scores for all of the final 3 quarters in this one.
Much was made this offseason about how the Rams had finally gotten former #1 overall pick Sam Bradford some weapons to play with. While that is true, they did downgrade in one fairly important area: the running game. Simply put, the Rams don't have one. They don't even have a 100-yard rusher. Not in a game, on the season. Without some semblance of balance, the Rams offense has struggled to get going against everyone not named Arizona.
While the offense has its share of issues, this team was hoping to contend for a playoff spot on the back of its defense. A young, talented group who played well last year under the new Jeff Fisher-led regime, and who promised to get even better this season. That second-year jump hasn't happened. They can still rush the passer well, but they're giving up more points than expected (28.7 per game). Part of that is their run defense, which might as wlel have been non-existant against DeMarco Murray and the Cowboys last week (34 rushes, 193 yards, for 5.7 yards per carry).
So St. Louis hasn't quite picked up where they left off last year defensively, and they are horribly ill-equipped to attack the 49ers' vulnerable rush defense. They have the home factor, but the desperation factor sides with the 49ers. The 49ers were expected to contend for the NFC crown. The 49ers are dealing with massive injuries and pseudo-suspensions. And the 49ers are much better able to attack their opponent's defense weakness. All of this adds up to San Francisco living up to their road favorite status, even on the short week.
San Francisco (-3) over ST. LOUIS
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